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NBA Heat make huge move

HighSeas

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When you have 100m+ a year for the next 4 years committed to your three best players (and you’ve already traded one of your possible 3 first round picks to trade), thybulle, maxey and multiple picks is a la la land request for kyle lowry IMO. We don’t know the exact requests obviously.

That’s not too far off from what Chicago gave Orlando for two and half years of Vucevic. It would’ve give them a much better shot at the Nets but I can understand the hesitation - especially from Doc’s POV. Doc loves those young guys. Doc did not allow Maxey to be included in the Houston trade. As a basketball fan at large, I’m thankful because harden is way more entertaining over there than he would have been in philly. The time to go all in was then, just like it was for the Heat who also missed out on Harden. Lowry is great but I can see the hesitation to go all in especially when he can leave in summer. I think Houston Morey would’ve made that move but in year 1 of Philly he would rather see how the unit performs in the playoffs and try to get Lowry in the summer.

These capped out contenders kind of have to operate different in their dealmaking. Like Luke Kenard gets 54/4 because he has Aaron Mintz, agent of PG, Jj reddick and bunch of others, but also because the Clippers intend to keep PG/Kawhi till they’re 35 and need contracts to trade.

May turn out to have been the wrong move but they can still make a similar move for a player of that caliber down the line. Morey mentioned keeping that optionality.

Lakers not including THT for Lowry could cost em too. I like Brooklyn’s best two, best three, best five, best eight, and best 1-15 better than Lakers. And, Schroeder and KCP and Gasol have some issues with the front office now.

Summer of 2021 has always been the Heat’s all in summer since we got Jimmy so I’m fine with waiting. We have a team that matchup well against anybody outside of guarding Embiid.

Putting the feelings about Morey aside, Pat Riley agreed with him to an extent or else he would’ve made the trade for Kyle. He has overpaid for guys before. Jimmy has been trying to play with Lowry since he got to Miami, and Vice versa. And Masai said he was kind of shocked at some of the responses he got back from GMs about Lowry so there was some clear disagreement on how he viewed it versus everyone else.
You seem to understand the NBA which is rare to see on here lol.

I look at it the opposite way for the Sixers. They're pot-committed to those 3 guys and Lowry is a seamless fit. Their title window may not last forever and Danny Green's salary will expire. They don't have unlimited options to add to that roster and there's an opportunity cost with time. Morey should know that considering what's become of the Rockets who were a CP3 injury and an awful shooting half away from a likely title.

Lowry is MUCH more valuable than Vooch imo. The Vooch trade was insanity. He has the worst +/- in the league and gets exposed in the playoffs worse than any big I've ever seen. Today was their first win since making the trade - thanks to the Nets picking up 2 more big-name washed dudes.

I haven't watched much NBA this year so idk if Maxey is good or not. If he has real potential then they're right to keep him. I just know Thybulle is replaceable and a late 1st is best used as a trade chip.

The Kennard move never made sense to me but the way you explain it has some merit. Problem is they have no picks and if that's a negative asset contract good luck trading him.

It's hard to believe the Lakers were really involved in the Lowry talks because of the hoops they'd have to jump through to match salary. I'm glad that didn't happen cause THT is really unathletic and overrated, and I don't wanna see LeBron in another Finals.

We don't know why Riley held back. Lowry is a mercurial personality while Oladipo is a straightforward grinder type, which is the type of guy Riley has always sought after. That's one theory. Or he just really values Herro, or he thinks it's better to keep options open for this offseason. I saw the Raptors push in for Ibaka and Tucker one year then add Kawhi in the offseason so I'm conditioned to believe you gotta strike while you can and chase a window that's available, assuming the value works out.
 

cookies

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Good discussion. I agree with you on opportunity not being a lengthy visitor (which is actually Daryl Morey's twitter bio). He spoke about the necessity of being the best defensive team in the league to win a title. By getting George Hill, they can sub Curry out at the end of games and still have the floor spaced enough with Hill, Harris, and Green. His thinking. As a Heat fan, I'm obviously glad they did not get Lowry. Maybe he thinks they can get him in the summer. Miami will close with Jimmy, Bam, Goran and some combination of Ariza/Iggy, and Oladipo/Herro/Duncan. I like our chances.

I agree with you on Lowry/Vooch. Lowry plays so hard on both ends. I'm higher on THT than you. He is not a good above the rim athlete and does not have a quick first step. To me, his length, aggression, and strength makes up for those deficiencies on both ends. His second and third strides get him places. What type of contract he will receive in RFA will be interesting as he will still be 20 years old at the start of the 21-22 season.
That said, with what the Lakers are facing in the West and potentially with the Nets for the upcoming years, trading him for Lowry would have increased the odds at back to back championships and the odds of a 3-peat. That's more enough to make the trade. THT is a Klutch Sports client from Chicago so Pelinika had to take into account the Anthony Davis/Rich Paul dynamic as well. Most reports had Pelinka offering Dennis/KCP but witholding THT.

Kenard does not get that deal, and most likely the trade too, without Aaron Mintz. The first year of that contract starts next season.His defense will likely never get good enough where he can play clutch minutes in the playoffs. The shooting and age will make him tradeable if you have to package something down the line. That's a contract Clips can get off with 1 or 2 years left with a 2nd round sweetener to a rebuilding team ala Ariza for Meyers Leonard this deadline. After this draft, they can trade their 2028 first rounder and offer a pick swap on their 2027 pick. Would not be surprised to see them do it as Balmer wants to get that ring before his new arena opens. Don't blame him.

Orlando left themselves slightly exposed in the trade. The Bulls 2021& 2023 picks are top 4 protected with no added 1st round picks if it falls in that top 4. Right now Chicago has a 20% chance of getting a top 4 pick. I don't see them overtaking the Hawks or Celtics. Maybe the Knicks if they fall apart in the stretch but Thibs has that team going. Unlikely they land in the top 4 but I'd love to see it from a chaos perspective.

With the various pick protections, Orlando/Houston/OKC/Minnesota/GSW are really hinging a lot on this lottery. Timberwolves either get a top 3 pick and lose their 2022 first rounder (that top 3 pick would have to be really good for them not to be bad next year) or give their 4/5th pick to GSW. Houston either gets a top 4 pick they can pair with Christian Wood or take Miami's pick will be in the 19-21 range. For Houston those ping pong balls will probably determine if their GM is employed to actually select a player with those Brooklyn 1st round picks in 2025-2027. They have two late first rounders this year too so staying in that top 4 is vital.

He avoids the Lowry question but good presser. Talks about keeping the cupboard full.

 
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cookies

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Lol let’s be clear..Trevor can’t do nothing to stop or slow KD, Kyrie or James. And whatever “advice” he gives don’t mean a damn thing. Anyone who plays BRKLYN the key is limit your TOs, control pace and execution late in games. If you don’t do the first 2 I mentioned BRKLYN will run u out the gym. Good news for teams that gave them is this is still Dan tonis system..which means defense is not a priority for them
Trevor or anyone else can't stop those guys. And when someone can stop somebody, teams will run endless pick and rolls until there is a switch. Late games in the playoffs it's hunting season. Whose the worst defender on the floor?

Now, Trevor can slow those guys down. Him and PJ Tucker know the tendencies of James Harden and Kevin Durant better than anyone not named Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala. Ariza and Iguodala are two of the only players who can disrupt those supernovas' offensive rhythm. Pat was very reluctant to take Iggy out of Miami's locker room. Notice the Bucks got that deal done ASAP after Ariza went to Miami. And, Ariza slowed down Steph Curry in the first quarter three days ago so there is recent evidence in addition to 2018 playoffs.

That advice is invaluable. To some it means a lot to others not as much. For Duncan Robinson, Andre Iguodala has already give him so much free game that has made him a better player. KZ Okapala will have no excuse not to be successful in the NBA as he watched two of the best wing and forward defenders of the past decade for the last two years. Good vets matter. Rip Hamilton and Luol Deng propelled Jimmy Butler. According to Gabe Vincent, he picked up tips from Avery Bradley (and those incremental improvements show - such as picking up his ballhandler in the backcourt).

One of the big Laker championship talking points was Rondo's scouting and film breakdown.

Since 1 month post Harden trade, the Nets have played well on defense. In the playoffs the main thing for them will be getting those defensive rebounds late against teams with strong offensive rebounders. Agree with you on TOs and late game execution. Speaking strictly on East conference players. Jimmy, Goran and Jrue can control the pace. 76ers best player at controlling the pace in the halfcourt will be Doc Rivers. Will be interesting to see how quick George hill melds in to the group and how much responsibility Rivers will give him. However, when you have Kyrie Irving and James Harden on your team, 8 times out of 10 you will control the pace of the game.

Also to correct a misconception.. Mike D'Antoni's best team ever had a top 5 defense and their switch everything defense, with PJ Tucker, Jeff Bzdelick, and Trevor Ariza leading the way, against the Warriors propelled more teams to adopt that style.
 
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Zmoney

7th Year Senior
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Sep 5, 2016
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2,094
No. I compared the idea that a championship makes you a better player. did winning a ring change pascal siakims game? Did it change Rondos game post Bost? Did he have the same impact in Dal, sac town as he did in LAL?. Nope. You take Kawhi, ibaka etc off the raps and siakims flaws that were Always there gets exposed. Same with rondo after he loses a wing iso scorer, rays spacing and KG defensive IQ. Until you pair him with Bron and AD. same with A 35 year old Kyle Lowry. a player like KG, Ray Allen, AD, Kyrie etc were always great. A championship just changed fans perspective because they actually got to see them more often once they went to contenders

The only thing that a ring changes is the perspective fans have of these players. That’s actually a narrative argument that pundits like skip or SAS would use... Kyle has had a very good career but given what teams had to give up to get him he wasn’t tipping any scales in LAL, MIA or philly.. there are plenty players in the league who are dawgs who aren’t in places to win rn. And if they somehow got on the championship stage the only thing that would change with them is narrative. Not them as actual players
You're wrong. Winning a championship can make you a better player. It's Mental. Any time you achieve something. You climb to the top of the mountain it gives you the confidence and swagger necessary to do so again. It's even more important to those who played a big role in winning it. Like Kyle Lowry did. Now he is ageing and it won't stop father time. You do lose your skills just like everyone else. But all of those teams you mentioned would have been improved with Kyle on their team right now. They just weren't interested in mortgaging their future to make it happen.

The Raptors absolutely improved as a team after the championship. They were on pace to have their best record ever the season after Kawhi left. That had everything to do with the players having confidence from winning it all. This season playing in Tampa, losing their entire frontcourt in free agency and with covid things fell apart.
 

cookies

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Screen Shot 2021-04-04 at 9.04.04 PM.png

"Did winning a ring change Siakam's game?"

Yes, scoring 32 points in Game 1 of the NBA Finals did give a basketball player more confidence. That star is for his All-Star appearance.
 

HighSeas

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Feb 4, 2013
Messages
4,487
Good discussion. I agree with you on opportunity not being a lengthy visitor (which is actually Daryl Morey's twitter bio). He spoke about the necessity of being the best defensive team in the league to win a title. By getting George Hill, they can sub Curry out at the end of games and still have the floor spaced enough with Hill, Harris, and Green. His thinking. As a Heat fan, I'm obviously glad they did not get Lowry. Maybe he thinks they can get him in the summer. Miami will close with Jimmy, Bam, Goran and some combination of Ariza/Iggy, and Oladipo/Herro/Duncan. I like our chances.

I agree with you on Lowry/Vooch. Lowry plays so hard on both ends. I'm higher on THT than you. He is not a good above the rim athlete and does not have a quick first step. To me, his length, aggression, and strength makes up for those deficiencies on both ends. His second and third strides get him places. What type of contract he will receive in RFA will be interesting as he will still be 20 years old at the start of the 21-22 season.
That said, with what the Lakers are facing in the West and potentially with the Nets for the upcoming years, trading him for Lowry would have increased the odds at back to back championships and the odds of a 3-peat. That's more enough to make the trade. THT is a Klutch Sports client from Chicago so Pelinika had to take into account the Anthony Davis/Rich Paul dynamic as well. Most reports had Pelinka offering Dennis/KCP but witholding THT.

Kenard does not get that deal, and most likely the trade too, without Aaron Mintz. The first year of that contract starts next season.His defense will likely never get good enough where he can play clutch minutes in the playoffs. The shooting and age will make him tradeable if you have to package something down the line. That's a contract Clips can get off with 1 or 2 years left with a 2nd round sweetener to a rebuilding team ala Ariza for Meyers Leonard this deadline. After this draft, they can trade their 2028 first rounder and offer a pick swap on their 2027 pick. Would not be surprised to see them do it as Balmer wants to get that ring before his new arena opens. Don't blame him.

Orlando left themselves slightly exposed in the trade. The Bulls 2021& 2023 picks are top 4 protected with no added 1st round picks if it falls in that top 4. Right now Chicago has a 20% chance of getting a top 4 pick. I don't see them overtaking the Hawks or Celtics. Maybe the Knicks if they fall apart in the stretch but Thibs has that team going. Unlikely they land in the top 4 but I'd love to see it from a chaos perspective.

With the various pick protections, Orlando/Houston/OKC/Minnesota/GSW are really hinging a lot on this lottery. Timberwolves either get a top 3 pick and lose their 2022 first rounder (that top 3 pick would have to be really good for them not to be bad next year) or give their 4/5th pick to GSW. Houston either gets a top 4 pick they can pair with Christian Wood or take Miami's pick will be in the 19-21 range. For Houston those ping pong balls will probably determine if their GM is employed to actually select a player with those Brooklyn 1st round picks in 2025-2027. They have two late first rounders this year too so staying in that top 4 is vital.

He avoids the Lowry question but good presser. Talks about keeping the cupboard full.

Yeah I've noticed that the Heat seem to have the Sixers number of late. At least last year that was the case. I like Miami's shot creation in crunch time better than the Sixers. Given how awful the Raptors have been in crunch time and how they're 19-30 despite a positive point differential...yeah that stuff really matters.

I don't think George Hill's floor spacing really moves the needle in the playoffs. I agree with your theory for them but in practice teams won't hesitate helping off Hill and he's shot below 36% from 3 in 2 of the last 3 playoffs. The Raptors helped off him liberally from what I remember.

I had no idea THT is 20 so that's interesting. I just think young role players - especially on winning teams - get overhyped and mythologized for upside that probably doesn't exist. I remember thinking Terrence Davis was gonna be a core piece last year when he was 2nd team all-rookie and then he caught a court case, made 0 progress and got traded for a 2nd.

Re: lottery yeah I actually listened to an NBA podcast this week (Windhorst one) for the first time in a while and they were talking about the massive stakes in the lottery this year. I always find that stuff fascinating. I'm just hoping the Raptors can land Bouknight at a minimum because as a UCONN fan I saw firsthand how hard it is to stay in front of him, yet the lack of spacing took away opportunities for him to drive and made his stats look mediocre. I saw a Big Board that has him #12 overall and that's insanity to me. His upside is through the roof.
 

305to954

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You're wrong. Winning a championship can make you a better player. It's Mental. Any time you achieve something. You climb to the top of the mountain it gives you the confidence and swagger necessary to do so again. It's even more important to those who played a big role in winning it. Like Kyle Lowry did. Now he is ageing and it won't stop father time. You do lose your skills just like everyone else. But all of those teams you mentioned would have been improved with Kyle on their team right now. They just weren't interested in mortgaging their future to make it happen.

The Raptors absolutely improved as a team after the championship. They were on pace to have their best record ever the season after Kawhi left. That had everything to do with the players having confidence from winning it all. This season playing in Tampa, losing their entire frontcourt in free agency and with covid things fell apart.
All that bolded is that SAS and skip psychoanalysis **** they engage in for ratings but ok. The heat were smart to not pull the trigger on that trade. Same with LAL. Way too much depth to give up for a 35 year old 5’11 pg. heat needed athleticism on the wing. Lakers just needed another Front court body and to get healthy.
 

cookies

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Feb 21, 2021
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Re: lottery yeah I actually listened to an NBA podcast this week (Windhorst one) for the first time in a while and they were talking about the massive stakes in the lottery this year. I always find that stuff fascinating. I'm just hoping the Raptors can land Bouknight at a minimum because as a UCONN fan I saw firsthand how hard it is to stay in front of him, yet the lack of spacing took away opportunities for him to drive and made his stats look mediocre. I saw a Big Board that has him #12 overall and that's insanity to me. His upside is through the roof.
Miami has the 76ers number, but unfortunately, Embiid has Bam's number (+ any other big man in the league). That is what scares me. I do not believe Embiid can will that team to 4 out of 7 against Spo and Jimmy though.

I do not think George Hill will be enough shooting for them, to win a championship, either because he is selective with his shot selection. What I wrote were Daryl's comments at his trade deadline presser. Hill is a major upgrade, as far as current ability, over Furkan and Green. Shake Milton might be a playoff X-factor and could win them 1 game in 2nd round with 14-18 points off the bench. Hill is an upgrade over Milton though. I can smell the playoff basketball already...

Bouknight can get a bucket at all 3 levels. Very valuable. Would be a nice guy to put next to SGA in OKC's organization where he can get a lot of shots his first two years and learn how to attack NBA defenses.

Sometimes mock draft overrate freshmen's stock. Immanuel Quickley, Jalen Smith & Payton Prichard were all guys who went higher than expected for example. Some team is going to say idgaf about Chris Duarte's age because he can come in and be ready to play to contribute within a month. Memphis has gone this route with other teams undervaluing college experience and overvaluing age.

Some of these mock drafts have Franz Wagner above Bouknight which is crazy to me. Bouknight would be a top 10 lock if he played at Michigan. Bouknight's competition for a top ten selection will be between him, Moses Moody, and Keon Johnson IMO.

This is a really good class comparable to 2018 and 2017.

Don't worry the Raptors will get a top 4 pick and Masai will add Jonathan Kuminga to his collection of two way forwards with African roots. Scottie Barnes is a guy who looks like he'd fit the Raptors organization in that 7-10 range. If they go big man, Kai Jones and Isaiah Jackson should still be available when they pick. Day'ron Sharpe too. Evan Mobley if they get lucky.

Speaking of T. Davis he had a pretty good game against the Bucks a couple of days ago.

Given how awful the Raptors have been in crunch time and how they're 19-30 despite a positive point differential...yeah that stuff really matters.
FVV is very good but tough for a 5'11 player to be the lead playmaker in the clutch. Especially with how crunch time lineups have evolved.

I just think young role players - especially on winning teams - get overhyped and mythologized for upside that probably doesn't exist.

Definitely.
 

HighSeas

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Miami has the 76ers number, but unfortunately, Embiid has Bam's number (+ any other big man in the league). That is what scares me. I do not believe Embiid can will that team to 4 out of 7 against Spo and Jimmy though.

I do not think George Hill will be enough shooting for them, to win a championship, either because he is selective with his shot selection. What I wrote were Daryl's comments at his trade deadline presser. Hill is a major upgrade, as far as current ability, over Furkan and Green. Shake Milton might be a playoff X-factor and could win them 1 game in 2nd round with 14-18 points off the bench. Hill is an upgrade over Milton though. I can smell the playoff basketball already...

Bouknight can get a bucket at all 3 levels. Very valuable. Would be a nice guy to put next to SGA in OKC's organization where he can get a lot of shots his first two years and learn how to attack NBA defenses.

Sometimes mock draft overrate freshmen's stock. Immanuel Quickley, Jalen Smith & Payton Prichard were all guys who went higher than expected for example. Some team is going to say idgaf about Chris Duarte's age because he can come in and be ready to play to contribute within a month. Memphis has gone this route with other teams undervaluing college experience and overvaluing age.

Some of these mock drafts have Franz Wagner above Bouknight which is crazy to me. Bouknight would be a top 10 lock if he played at Michigan. Bouknight's competition for a top ten selection will be between him, Moses Moody, and Keon Johnson IMO.

This is a really good class comparable to 2018 and 2017.

Don't worry the Raptors will get a top 4 pick and Masai will add Jonathan Kuminga to his collection of two way forwards with African roots. Scottie Barnes is a guy who looks like he'd fit the Raptors organization in that 7-10 range. If they go big man, Kai Jones and Isaiah Jackson should still be available when they pick. Day'ron Sharpe too. Evan Mobley if they get lucky.

Speaking of T. Davis he had a pretty good game against the Bucks a couple of days ago.


FVV is very good but tough for a 5'11 player to be the lead playmaker in the clutch. Especially with how crunch time lineups have evolved.



Definitely.
You're getting ahead of me with the NBA draft talk lol the only guys I've seen are Cunningham, Green and Bouknight. I agree about Bouk and I see his areas of improvement as shooting consistency and getting stronger with the ball. I just picture him with NBA spacing and the strict rules against hand checking being able to get anywhere he wants with his wiggle and quickness. The rest will come in time. And he actually guards which is one thing Dan Hurley coached up well. No need to project that side of the court like with a lot of top prospects who put no effort in.

I don't want the Raps to reach on a C unless there's a prospect who actually fits the modern game. I'd rather get a Baynes type who doesn't suck and play small most of the time. It's a very replaceable position, not that the Bam types aren't super valuable cause he'd be a dream fit.

The Raps really need an athletic wing who can get to the rim and the line. That's why Bouk fascinates me. I agree about FVV he's an elite 3&D PG but one of the worst players I've ever seen at the rim. He has no craft or athleticism as a finisher...it's infuriating watching him throw up these Kyrie-esque layup attempts that invariably lead to dunks the other way. And Siakam...woof the guy has no touch, every time he shoots a clutch jumper it spills out in agonizing fashion.
 
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