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Going for 2 every time?

SinCityCane

SinCityCane

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Various sources estimate the success rate of a two-point conversion to be between 40% and 55%. Because of the higher value (2 points vs 1), a higher expected value is achieved through the two-point conversion than the extra point.

I wonder how long until some coach decides to ditch the kicker for the PATs and go for max value every score. Apart from the fact they'll score more points (as the stats show), they'll also be putting serious pressure on their opponents.
 
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SinCityCane said:
Various sources estimate the success rate of a two-point conversion to be between 40% and 55%. Because of the higher value (2 points vs 1), a higher expected value is achieved through the two-point conversion than the extra point.

I wonder how long until some coach decides to ditch the kicker for the PATs and go for max value every score. Apart from the fact they'll score more points (as the stats show), they'll also be putting serious pressure on their opponents.
Click to expand...

Would that stat line hold up if more teams continue to run it, though?
 
SinCityCane said:
Various sources estimate the success rate of a two-point conversion to be between 40% and 55%. Because of the higher value (2 points vs 1), a higher expected value is achieved through the two-point conversion than the extra point.

I wonder how long until some coach decides to ditch the kicker for the PATs and go for max value every score. Apart from the fact they'll score more points (as the stats show), they'll also be putting serious pressure on their opponents.
Click to expand...
It depends on the team. If your team averages a 50% or higher success rate on 2 point conversions, you should go for 2. The only way I see that happening is if a team has a stud running back who can blast his way in from 3 yards out pretty easily or a wide out who's 7 foot tall and can just play jump ball.
 
Well, its the 3vs2 discussion in Basketball here too.

Only reason why players shoot threes more often is because the conversion rate is good enough to make the shot the most efficient.

Same principle applies here. Make the 2pt efficient enough and... off you go.
 
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It would be interesting to see how the play calling evolves. I HATE the rollout on have-to-have it short yardage plays. I would love to know how efficient that play actually is. I assume OC’s would give QB’s a 4 option play call based on defensive alignment.
It all turns into a 1-on-1 anyway, but food for thought.

Happy NY from Oz.
 
It’s going to take a coach with a lot of balls and nothing to lose to put the theory to test. There’s just not enough data to show what the true percentage of conversations would be. Most teams only go for two a handful of times over the course of a full season. Ideally, this would be the smart move for a team that excels in short yardage and red zone conversions. A team like Georgia could give their average score a significant bump by going for two every time. But since most of their games are blowouts, they have no need to try anything this radical.

High school teams have been doing it for decades though. Especially at schools that don’t have soccer programs (most high school kickers are soccer players).
 
DTP said:
It’s going to take a coach with a lot of balls and nothing to lose to put the theory to test. There’s just not enough data to show what the true percentage of conversations would be. Most teams only go for two a handful of times over the course of a full season. Ideally, this would be the smart move for a team that excels in short yardage and red zone conversions. A team like Georgia could give their average score a significant bump by going for two every time. But since most of their games are blowouts, they have no need to try anything this radical.

High school teams have been doing it for decades though. Especially at schools that don’t have soccer programs (most high school kickers are soccer players).
Click to expand...
You’re right about high schools doing it, but I seem to think they just don’t have kicking ability, field goals, kickoffs and punts, at least from what I’ve seen in person. I live in Maryland and the Baltimore schools go for 2 all the time.
 
WesternMDCane said:
You’re right about high schools doing it, but I seem to think they just don’t have kicking ability, field goals, kickoffs and punts, at least from what I’ve seen in person. I live in Maryland and the Baltimore schools go for 2 all the time.
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Yeah, it’s mostly just because they don’t have a kicker
 
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Southern Oz said:
It would be interesting to see how the play calling evolves. I HATE the rollout on have-to-have it short yardage plays. I would love to know how efficient that play actually is. I assume OC’s would give QB’s a 4 option play call based on defensive alignment.
It all turns into a 1-on-1 anyway, but food for thought.

Happy NY from Oz.
Click to expand...
We did it with a variation of horns down and it worked like a charm
 
SinCityCane said:
Various sources estimate the success rate of a two-point conversion to be between 40% and 55%. Because of the higher value (2 points vs 1), a higher expected value is achieved through the two-point conversion than the extra point.

I wonder how long until some coach decides to ditch the kicker for the PATs and go for max value every score. Apart from the fact they'll score more points (as the stats show), they'll also be putting serious pressure on their opponents.
Click to expand...
its not close to 50% otherwise it would be a thing
 
DTP said:
It’s going to take a coach with a lot of balls and nothing to lose to put the theory to test. There’s just not enough data to show what the true percentage of conversations would be. Most teams only go for two a handful of times over the course of a full season. Ideally, this would be the smart move for a team that excels in short yardage and red zone conversions. A team like Georgia could give their average score a significant bump by going for two every time. But since most of their games are blowouts, they have no need to try anything this radical.

High school teams have been doing it for decades though. Especially at schools that don’t have soccer programs (most high school kickers are soccer players).
Click to expand...
Mario gonna be hear atleast 5 more years. He can try it since he got nothing to lose.
Plus it's TUFF and FYZICAL
 
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Try recruiting a kicker under those conditions. I have had this theory that the reason has had problems with placekickers is that their offenses have been so successful that they rarely needed to settle for field goals. Hence the good kickers were not interested.
 
SinCityCane said:
Various sources estimate the success rate of a two-point conversion to be between 40% and 55%. Because of the higher value (2 points vs 1), a higher expected value is achieved through the two-point conversion than the extra point.

I wonder how long until some coach decides to ditch the kicker for the PATs and go for max value every score. Apart from the fact they'll score more points (as the stats show), they'll also be putting serious pressure on their opponents.
Click to expand...
Could you imagine us losing to Clemson and Virginia because we went for 2? This offense is nowhere near creative enough to go for 2. Mario would call for a dive up the gut and it would be short 75% of the time because every team knows exactly what's coming and just loads the middle of the line of scrimmage.
 
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