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Among college football's biggest analysts and magazines, there's been a lot of different viewpoints on how our Canes are going to fare in the upcoming 2019 season. Depending on who's website or magazine you follow, we're either as bad as 8-4 or as good as 10-2. So where will we end up, and how does it bode for the future of our program? Below, I've included my pre-8/24 analysis. I'd love to see where you all agree with my analysis, and where you disagree. Also, if you want to see why we beat coastal favorite UVA, scroll on down.
Week 0: Miami vs #8 Florida
Time/Location: 7:00 PM ET at Camping World Stadium
Network: ESPN
Vegas Spread: -7 Florida
Outlook: There have been a million analyses on this board, about this game, since the beginning of the offseason. Therefore, I'm not going to delve into this game much as we've already talked about it and since there will likely be 100 more threads on it between today and kickoff. The key points of this game are clear:
Week 1: Bye - This bye right after our matchup with UF is a godsend. We'll have two full weeks (almost at least) to clean up the mistakes we made against Florida, and recover for a key ACC matchup against UNC)
Week 2: Miami at North Carolina
Time/Location: 8:00 PM ET at Kenan Memorial Stadium
Network: ACC Network (ACCN)
Outlook: No matter what happens in Week 0, this is a vital game for Miami's ACC Championship hopes. Last year, Miami beat UNC in a 47-10 beatdown at Hard Rock Stadium. That rout was powered by an incredible three defensive touchdown's, and a decent enough performance from our offense and special teams.
After an abysmal 2-9 (1-7) season, Larry Fedora was fired and replaced by former UNC and UT Head Coach Mack Brown. Overall, Mack is inheriting a program that has been in complete disarray for two years, and which has posted a 5-18 record over that same time. UNC has some talented players across its roster, but lacks depth across the board and has some major holes to fill. If you think our team has a QB problem, go on over to the UNC boards to make yourself feel better about our situation. While UNC fans believe Mack will get them to at least 6 wins this year, I have major doubts (they're the most delusional fan base in the ACC IMHO). Minus 1 or 2 games, there isn't a guaranteed win on their schedule.
Prediction: Miami will be ready for this game, regardless of what happens week 0. While Mack Brown could definitely turn it around at UNC in time, it's not going to happen in Week 2. Miami beat this team with a bad offense in 2018, and this year's offense will be miles better. Defensive production should be relatively the same. Overall, I expect this game to be competitive for at least a quarter or two, but for Miami to open up a comfortable lead in the second half. Plainly put, UNC has depth issues and holes throughout its roster, and Miami will exploit it. If Miami wins in week 0, this game will be an even bigger rout. Add to the fact that Manny Diaz has an ax to grind with Mack Brown, and you've got yourself a win.
Week 3: Bethune-Cookman vs Miami
Time/Location: 4:00 PM ET at Hard Rock Stadium
Network: ACCN
Outlook and Prediction: Miami will beat Bethune-Cookman, and it won't be close. Expect a lot of our younger guys to get some well-needed playing experience in this game. This isn't Al Golden's Miami, this game will be over by half-time. Also, this will be a game with cheaper ticket prices. So, if you want to see the Canes at least once this year, tailgate, and stay in budget, this is a great game to do it. Easy win.
Week 4: Central Michigan vs Miami
Time/Location: Time TBA at Hard Rock Stadium
Network: TBA
Outlook and Prediction: After averaging 6 to 8 wins a season from 2015-2017, Central Michigan went an abysmal 1-11 (0-8) in 2018. Head Coach John Bonamego was fired and replaced by former Florida Head Coach Jim McElwain at the end of the season. Plainly put, this is a game that Miami should win by a comfortable margin and multiple scores. While I do believe this Central Michigan team (after evaluating their roster and staff) is better than it's 1-11 2018 record, they don't have the talent, depth, coaching staff, or program to pull an upset against Miami. This could be an interesting game for a quarter or two if we sleepwalk into this game, but don't anticipate it. With a perfectionist like Dan Enos at OC, Miami will be ready. Easy win.
Week 5: Bye - This is yet another conveniently timed bye. Miami will have almost two weeks to prepare for a crucial ACC matchup against Virginia Tech.
Week 6: Virginia Tech vs Miami
Time/Location: Time and TV TBA at Hard Rock Stadium.
Outlook and Prediction: Miami is 5-2 in its last 7 matchups against Virginia Tech, with the Canes manhandling Virginia Tech in 2017 and 2018. Justin Fuente took over VT from Frank Beamer in 2016, and there were high hopes for his new coaching regime. Nevertheless, Fuente has mostly disappointed and has not been able to replicate the success of his initial 2016 campaign. This will be a vital game for Miami, and winning it is crucial to our Coastal Division hopes. Over the offseason, Virginia Tech has suffered a slew of player dismissals and transfers. Miami has benefited immensely from this, especially since landing vaunted transfer Trevon Hill. Considering that Miami will have played two cupcakes and had two byes the previous four weeks before this game, I wouldn't be surprised to see this team have a slow start. Nevertheless, Miami is more talented and has better depth at almost every position on its roster compared to Virginia Tech. This is a game Miami could lose if its QB play reverts to its 2018 woes, or comes out deflated. So long as this team performs at its average it should win. Virginia Tech hasn't beaten Miami at Hard Rock since 2013, and that trend will continue this season.
Week 7: Virginia vs Miami
Time/Location: 8:00 PM ET at Hard Rock Stadium
Network: ESPN
Outlook and Prediction: Miami began its 2018 death spiral with an embarrassing 13-16 upset loss against UVA in Charlottesville. While Miami was able to force three turnovers in that game, it simply didn't have an answer on offense. UVA coach Bronco Mendenhall coached his team to a 9-4 record and a 28-0 Belk Bowl win against the South Carolina Gamecocks. With a solid coaching record/staff and a returning QB in Bryce Perkins, it's not hard to see why this UVA team is favored to win the coastal. As a recent UVA grad myself, I do have some insight on this team.
First, UVA is replacing two star offensive players in WR Olamide Zaccheaus and RB Jordan Ellis. Zaccheaus had 93 receptions, 1,058 yds of receiving, 11.1 yds per catch, and 9 TD's in 2018. Ellis had 215 rushes, 1,026 yards, 4.8 ypc, and 10 TD's. It can't be understated how massive of a loss these two players are for UVA. For example, overall, UVA was the 81st ranked offense in the country last year with 5,003 total yards on the season and 45 touchdowns. Both Zaccheaus and Ellis combined accounted for 2,084/5,003 total yards that UVA had on the year. That means that they accounted for 42% of UVA's offense and 42% of UVA's TD's. Furthermore, people in Charlottesville aren't as convinced about Bryce Perkins as the rest of the country is. While Perkins is a great athlete and flashed at times last year, his throwing mechanics are atrocious. Furthermore, I have to wonder if he'll suffer a Malik Rosier type of setback in 2019. Everyone has film on him now, teams will know how to beat him.
Overall, I'm not convinced that UVA has an answer to fill the gaps left by the departures of Zaccheaus and Ellis. While this will be an experienced and well-coached team going into our game, Miami should win. UVA has not beaten Miami at Hard Rock since 2011, and I expect that trend to continue. This game will be a fight, it will not be a repeat of the 2017 comeback blowout. Nevertheless, our defense combined with their loss of offensive production should be enough to win this game. Furthermore, UVA lost a lot of experienced guys on defense. This UVA team could either be 4-1 coming into our game or 2-3. Honestly, it's that volatile.
Week 8: Georgia Tech at Miami
Time/Location: Time and TV TBA at Hard Rock Stadium
Outlook and Prediction: Over the last 10 years, Miami is 8-2 against Georgia Tech. That type of record didn't help us last year though, as Miami lost 27-21 in Atlanta. Overall, this is a year of major change for Georgia Tech, as Geoff Collins takes over for former long-time HC Paul Johnson. Collins brings an entirely different offensive philosophy to GT (about fu*king time) but has a roster of personnel not suited to his system. No one is expecting much from GT this year, and neither am I. This team will get lucky to reach bowl eligibility, and to not lose to Miami by at least two scores. As with most of our schedule, GT does not have the depth or talent to beat Miami. Installing a new offense is hard, especially against one of the best defenses in the country. Miami could definitely blow this game, we always blow at least one, if we come out deflated or are suffering some key injuries. Nevertheless, barring disaster, Miami will win this game comfortably. Interesting fact, Georgia Tech has not beaten Miami in Miami since Randy Shannon's inaugural season in 2007. They've never won a regular-season game at Hard Rock Stadium.
Week 0: Miami vs #8 Florida
Time/Location: 7:00 PM ET at Camping World Stadium
Network: ESPN
Vegas Spread: -7 Florida
Outlook: There have been a million analyses on this board, about this game, since the beginning of the offseason. Therefore, I'm not going to delve into this game much as we've already talked about it and since there will likely be 100 more threads on it between today and kickoff. The key points of this game are clear:
- Miami's QB play will ultimately determine whether the Canes can win this game or not. We don't need our starting QB to be Heisman level, but we need him to be good enough to move the chains consistently, make some big plays, give our OL a chance, and limit offensive turnovers/mistakes.
- Miami needs to exploit the mismatch its front seven has with Florida's offensive line. As noted in various other threads and on the infamous "Gator Tears," Florida is breaking in an entirely new offensive line comprised of personnel that have mostly been career back-ups. Most players on this new line were low to mid-three-star recruits. If Florida can't establish a consistent running game, and Felipe Franks is put under pressure consistently (he's among the worst in the country when under pressure), Miami will likely win this game.
- Miami lost many games last year because of atrocious special teams and terrible field position. If Louis Hedley proves to be the answer, and Miami can put Florida in bad field position consistently, our chances to win exponentially increase.
Week 1: Bye - This bye right after our matchup with UF is a godsend. We'll have two full weeks (almost at least) to clean up the mistakes we made against Florida, and recover for a key ACC matchup against UNC)
Week 2: Miami at North Carolina
Time/Location: 8:00 PM ET at Kenan Memorial Stadium
Network: ACC Network (ACCN)
Outlook: No matter what happens in Week 0, this is a vital game for Miami's ACC Championship hopes. Last year, Miami beat UNC in a 47-10 beatdown at Hard Rock Stadium. That rout was powered by an incredible three defensive touchdown's, and a decent enough performance from our offense and special teams.
After an abysmal 2-9 (1-7) season, Larry Fedora was fired and replaced by former UNC and UT Head Coach Mack Brown. Overall, Mack is inheriting a program that has been in complete disarray for two years, and which has posted a 5-18 record over that same time. UNC has some talented players across its roster, but lacks depth across the board and has some major holes to fill. If you think our team has a QB problem, go on over to the UNC boards to make yourself feel better about our situation. While UNC fans believe Mack will get them to at least 6 wins this year, I have major doubts (they're the most delusional fan base in the ACC IMHO). Minus 1 or 2 games, there isn't a guaranteed win on their schedule.
Prediction: Miami will be ready for this game, regardless of what happens week 0. While Mack Brown could definitely turn it around at UNC in time, it's not going to happen in Week 2. Miami beat this team with a bad offense in 2018, and this year's offense will be miles better. Defensive production should be relatively the same. Overall, I expect this game to be competitive for at least a quarter or two, but for Miami to open up a comfortable lead in the second half. Plainly put, UNC has depth issues and holes throughout its roster, and Miami will exploit it. If Miami wins in week 0, this game will be an even bigger rout. Add to the fact that Manny Diaz has an ax to grind with Mack Brown, and you've got yourself a win.
Week 3: Bethune-Cookman vs Miami
Time/Location: 4:00 PM ET at Hard Rock Stadium
Network: ACCN
Outlook and Prediction: Miami will beat Bethune-Cookman, and it won't be close. Expect a lot of our younger guys to get some well-needed playing experience in this game. This isn't Al Golden's Miami, this game will be over by half-time. Also, this will be a game with cheaper ticket prices. So, if you want to see the Canes at least once this year, tailgate, and stay in budget, this is a great game to do it. Easy win.
Week 4: Central Michigan vs Miami
Time/Location: Time TBA at Hard Rock Stadium
Network: TBA
Outlook and Prediction: After averaging 6 to 8 wins a season from 2015-2017, Central Michigan went an abysmal 1-11 (0-8) in 2018. Head Coach John Bonamego was fired and replaced by former Florida Head Coach Jim McElwain at the end of the season. Plainly put, this is a game that Miami should win by a comfortable margin and multiple scores. While I do believe this Central Michigan team (after evaluating their roster and staff) is better than it's 1-11 2018 record, they don't have the talent, depth, coaching staff, or program to pull an upset against Miami. This could be an interesting game for a quarter or two if we sleepwalk into this game, but don't anticipate it. With a perfectionist like Dan Enos at OC, Miami will be ready. Easy win.
Week 5: Bye - This is yet another conveniently timed bye. Miami will have almost two weeks to prepare for a crucial ACC matchup against Virginia Tech.
Week 6: Virginia Tech vs Miami
Time/Location: Time and TV TBA at Hard Rock Stadium.
Outlook and Prediction: Miami is 5-2 in its last 7 matchups against Virginia Tech, with the Canes manhandling Virginia Tech in 2017 and 2018. Justin Fuente took over VT from Frank Beamer in 2016, and there were high hopes for his new coaching regime. Nevertheless, Fuente has mostly disappointed and has not been able to replicate the success of his initial 2016 campaign. This will be a vital game for Miami, and winning it is crucial to our Coastal Division hopes. Over the offseason, Virginia Tech has suffered a slew of player dismissals and transfers. Miami has benefited immensely from this, especially since landing vaunted transfer Trevon Hill. Considering that Miami will have played two cupcakes and had two byes the previous four weeks before this game, I wouldn't be surprised to see this team have a slow start. Nevertheless, Miami is more talented and has better depth at almost every position on its roster compared to Virginia Tech. This is a game Miami could lose if its QB play reverts to its 2018 woes, or comes out deflated. So long as this team performs at its average it should win. Virginia Tech hasn't beaten Miami at Hard Rock since 2013, and that trend will continue this season.
Week 7: Virginia vs Miami
Time/Location: 8:00 PM ET at Hard Rock Stadium
Network: ESPN
Outlook and Prediction: Miami began its 2018 death spiral with an embarrassing 13-16 upset loss against UVA in Charlottesville. While Miami was able to force three turnovers in that game, it simply didn't have an answer on offense. UVA coach Bronco Mendenhall coached his team to a 9-4 record and a 28-0 Belk Bowl win against the South Carolina Gamecocks. With a solid coaching record/staff and a returning QB in Bryce Perkins, it's not hard to see why this UVA team is favored to win the coastal. As a recent UVA grad myself, I do have some insight on this team.
First, UVA is replacing two star offensive players in WR Olamide Zaccheaus and RB Jordan Ellis. Zaccheaus had 93 receptions, 1,058 yds of receiving, 11.1 yds per catch, and 9 TD's in 2018. Ellis had 215 rushes, 1,026 yards, 4.8 ypc, and 10 TD's. It can't be understated how massive of a loss these two players are for UVA. For example, overall, UVA was the 81st ranked offense in the country last year with 5,003 total yards on the season and 45 touchdowns. Both Zaccheaus and Ellis combined accounted for 2,084/5,003 total yards that UVA had on the year. That means that they accounted for 42% of UVA's offense and 42% of UVA's TD's. Furthermore, people in Charlottesville aren't as convinced about Bryce Perkins as the rest of the country is. While Perkins is a great athlete and flashed at times last year, his throwing mechanics are atrocious. Furthermore, I have to wonder if he'll suffer a Malik Rosier type of setback in 2019. Everyone has film on him now, teams will know how to beat him.
Overall, I'm not convinced that UVA has an answer to fill the gaps left by the departures of Zaccheaus and Ellis. While this will be an experienced and well-coached team going into our game, Miami should win. UVA has not beaten Miami at Hard Rock since 2011, and I expect that trend to continue. This game will be a fight, it will not be a repeat of the 2017 comeback blowout. Nevertheless, our defense combined with their loss of offensive production should be enough to win this game. Furthermore, UVA lost a lot of experienced guys on defense. This UVA team could either be 4-1 coming into our game or 2-3. Honestly, it's that volatile.
Week 8: Georgia Tech at Miami
Time/Location: Time and TV TBA at Hard Rock Stadium
Outlook and Prediction: Over the last 10 years, Miami is 8-2 against Georgia Tech. That type of record didn't help us last year though, as Miami lost 27-21 in Atlanta. Overall, this is a year of major change for Georgia Tech, as Geoff Collins takes over for former long-time HC Paul Johnson. Collins brings an entirely different offensive philosophy to GT (about fu*king time) but has a roster of personnel not suited to his system. No one is expecting much from GT this year, and neither am I. This team will get lucky to reach bowl eligibility, and to not lose to Miami by at least two scores. As with most of our schedule, GT does not have the depth or talent to beat Miami. Installing a new offense is hard, especially against one of the best defenses in the country. Miami could definitely blow this game, we always blow at least one, if we come out deflated or are suffering some key injuries. Nevertheless, barring disaster, Miami will win this game comfortably. Interesting fact, Georgia Tech has not beaten Miami in Miami since Randy Shannon's inaugural season in 2007. They've never won a regular-season game at Hard Rock Stadium.
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