Game 33: FIU 4/7/26

[Allabouttheu95]

I don’t always love Warren Nolan’s predicted result function (Boyd post the needs report!), but it would seem to agree with you. I’m eyeballing an RPI in the low 20s even if we win out our midweek games.

Actually, I’d guess the ACC only gets 6 (maybe 7 bids) if it were right. It has us finishing at 15-15 with a 44 RPI and BC the only team on our schedule higher than us in the conference standings.

So pretty much safe to say 1 more acc series loss totally removes us from hosting conversation?

 

[scane]

As long as we aren't sent to Gainesville, a 2 will be Ok if they're playing well. Other than UCLA and Texas, everyone might be vulnerable in their regionals this year.

The nice thing about them seeding 1-32 this year is that Gainesville would be more dumb luck than fate, and you can play yourself into a more favorable draw even if you don’t host.

 

[scane]

So pretty much safe to say 1 more acc series loss totally removes us from hosting conversation?

I’d have told you we were totally removed from the hosting conversation this time last year, and we somehow played ourselves into it for a minute. Last year the Needs Report improved a good deal for us from the first time I posted it to Selection Day based on other team’s results.

I’d say right now our schedule might be weak enough this year between drawing almost the entire bottom half of the ACC as it stands, Lafayette, Lehigh, and FIU that we might get to a typical slam dunk host spot and not host (losing just one more conference series). OTOH there’s also still about half a college baseball season out there to shake things up, so let’s check back in a couple weeks after hopefully a couple more series wins under our belt.

 

[Lance Roffers]

That was a rough RPI win. We dropped from 31st before Warren Nolan processed it to 37th. Unfortunately, FIU’s record is RPI poison this year.

The one team in conference Missouri State misses this year is FIU and I'm actually thankful for it for this reason.

 

[Zbrod95]

It's baseball, anything can happen. But I just don't see any plausible way this team makes it out of regionals with how bad the bullpen is. Imagine if you lose the first game and you have to burn through pitching like water for the next 3 days? These kids can't get anyone out when they're on full rest. Add JD's cluster**** decision making...big yikes.

Pretty sure the schedule is a total joke the rest of the way, except for FSU, so we might back our way into a 2-seed somewhere, but the way I see it now is this looks like a Sunday early afternoon exit at whichever Podunk town regional we end up in.

Wake is OK, but this weekend is home.
Stanford is awful
Cal is beyond awful
NC State is average, but it is on the road, so that'll be a big series to hopefully win
Louisville isn't any good
FSU

Absolutely zero reason to lose a series for the rest of the regular season, save in Tallahassee.

I’m in the same belief. The O might be good enough to get us to a host spot best case scenario but we won’t be deep enough to get out of the regional.