Game 10: @ FAU 2/25/26

[FreeVilma]

Never a doubt!

 

[CTCanes]

Poor

Over 40 pitches will it be an issue for Friday.

 

[FreddyCane]

Not great from Bilka tonight either

Pitching and defense was horrendous tonight. Offense will have to carry us.

 

[Allabouttheu95]

Happy they found a way to win this game but these 2 games against decent comp don’t have me feeling good with our arch rivals who have owned us for 15 years coming to town this weekend

 

[scane]

Takeaways: fairly solid start from Santos-Olson (especially when you factor in the Williams double error), we have to come out more focused midweek, and I still have questions about the pitching.

 

[Sebastian Font]

Without going through the previous pages here, I'm assuming everyone in here was completely composed throughout the night

 

[Lance Roffers]

Man if Nick Robert is our savior we in trouble…

Fair. His numbers last year were horrendous, no doubt about it.

That said, his underlying data was quite good. HR/FB% is notoriously volatile and the number he had last year was outlier territory. 29.0% of the fly balls he allowed last year left the yard. That has nearly a 0% chance of happening again this year.

He reduced his BB% by a third, while increasing his K% by 75%.

His batted ball profile was largely unchanged, other than a few of the previous ground balls turned into fly balls (which almost seemed to leave the yard). The Left on Base % was a below average 68% (typically you'll see this between 70-75%).

Add it up and his Situational ERA was an outstanding 2.95. The predictive power of that is limited, but combine it with the K%-BB% gains and you should expect him to be a ~4 ERA pitcher if the gains in K% hold.

 

[michelangelo11]

Did not like the fabio for dylan substitution at the end, fabio ended up SO

 

[TheRichtShow]

My complaints certainly aren't about our lineup. It's more based on the fact we don't have more stuff at the back end of the bullpen. Spend a couple hundred grand on the bullpen and you're already at a 30-win floor as a program in college.

That FAU kid had great data prior to tonight but he was a changeup guy with a fastball that was pus and it didn't tunnel if he hadn't proven he could throw strikes.

I'll remind myself that Nick Robert and Menendez will hopefully be back in a month.

Gotta remember they lost 2 of their top 3 transfer pitchers to the MLB Draft. If those guys were here then DeRias is probably at the back end of the bullpen where his stuff would play up.

Also, Taylor got hurt during the Fall. He had a 44% whiff rate on his breaking ball last year and was expected to be a set-up guy here.

 

[QuattroCane]

Still have no idea if this team is any good beyond the ability to hit.
If past history is any indication of future performance I expect to lose two of three this weekend. We’ll win Friday 7-4, then lose 9-3 & 11-2. The two decent teams we’ve played had us on the ropes.

 

[rok]

Leaving this kid out to the wolves

WVUM kids could not believe he was allowed to remain in the game through all of that.

 

[Lance Roffers]

Gotta remember they lost 2 of their top 3 transfer pitchers to the MLB Draft. If those guys were here then DeRias is probably at the back end of the bullpen where his stuff would play up.

Also, Taylor got hurt during the Fall. He had a 44% whiff rate on his breaking ball last year and was expected to be a set-up guy here.

Losing the two portal arms stings, no doubt.

That said, every team has to deal with that. To me, Miami needed a better handle on what those players wanted to do and have contingencies in place. Both signed for relatively typical dollars and clearly wanted to go pro. If we all agree that to be true, that's on the staff to better anticipate their leaving and have replacements or not take their commitment in lieu of others at all.

Taylor, yes, he's a loss and was someone I liked.

Elite teams that I've seen this year all have big arms in the bullpen. Miami has glaringly poor arms in their bullpen for that level and you also see it on the draft lists, which have few Miami names on the pitching side. DeRias has good stuff, that I'll concede. Not sure I'm ready to say he's exhibited the level of compete I want to see out of the back of my bullpen, but he's a nice arm. We should have nice arms. Multiple. At least 5-6 of them is the bare minimum to my eyes.

 

[88]

WVUM kids could not believe he was allowed to remain in the game through all of that.

FAU broadcaster mentioned there was no one warming in the pen around 7 times you can tell what he really wanted to say

 

[TheRichtShow]

Still have no idea if this team is any good beyond the ability to hit.
If past history is any indication of future performance I expect to lose two of three this weekend. We’ll win Friday 7-4, then lose 9-3 & 11-2. The two decent teams we’ve played had us on the ropes.

I agree the season really starts on Friday vs UF.

That being said, why is it that our fanbase is the seemingly the only one that seems to melt down over midweek baseball. Just yesterday:

McNeese St beats LSU
Arkansas St beats Arkansas
San Diego St beats UCLA

Midweek baseball is always chaos. At least we've won ours so far

 

[88]

Fair. His numbers last year were horrendous, no doubt about it.

That said, his underlying data was quite good. HR/FB% is notoriously volatile and the number he had last year was outlier territory. 29.0% of the fly balls he allowed last year left the yard. That has nearly a 0% chance of happening again this year.

He reduced his BB% by a third, while increasing his K% by 75%.

His batted ball profile was largely unchanged, other than a few of the previous ground balls turned into fly balls (which almost seemed to leave the yard). The Left on Base % was a below average 68% (typically you'll see this between 70-75%).

Add it up and his Situational ERA was an outstanding 2.95. The predictive power of that is limited, but combine it with the K%-BB% gains and you should expect him to be a ~4 ERA pitcher if the gains in K% hold.

Good ****, Lance

 

[QuattroCane]

I agree the season really starts on Friday vs UF.

That being said, why is it that our fanbase is the seemingly the only one that seems to melt down over midweek baseball. Just yesterday:

McNeese St beats LSU
Arkansas St beats Arkansas
San Diego St beats UCLA

Midweek baseball is always chaos. At least we've won ours so far

My daughter goes to Arkansas, trust me…
Personally it’s not a melt down it’s an observation, we squeezed by the two decent teams we’ve played and UF has owned us, simple as that.

 

[TheRichtShow]

Losing the two portal arms stings, no doubt.

That said, every team has to deal with that. To me, Miami needed a better handle on what those players wanted to do and have contingencies in place. Both signed for relatively typical dollars and clearly wanted to go pro. If we all agree that to be true, that's on the staff to better anticipate their leaving and have replacements or not take their commitment in lieu of others at all.

Taylor, yes, he's a loss and was someone I liked.

Elite teams that I've seen this year all have big arms in the bullpen. Miami has glaringly poor arms in their bullpen for that level and you also see it on the draft lists, which have few Miami names on the pitching side. DeRias has good stuff, that I'll concede. Not sure I'm ready to say he's exhibited the level of compete I want to see out of the back of my bullpen, but he's a nice arm. We should have nice arms. Multiple. At least 5-6 of them is the bare minimum to my eyes.

And I know for a fact there are a couple of high level arms we missed on after the draft because we just got outbid on in NIL.

JD does not have the type of $ to work with as the top programs in the country.

So donate to Canes Connection, and specify its for baseball. Because until that money is there we aren't going to get the guys LSU is getting

 

[TheRichtShow]

My daughter goes to Arkansas, trust me…
Personally it’s not a melt down it’s an observation, we squeezed by the two decent teams we’ve played and UF has owned us, simple as that.

Agree. We finally beat FSU in basketball. Its time to beat UF in baseball

 

[88]

As someone who watches a lot of MLB and even some minor league baseball but is just starting to get back into Miami for the first time since my youth...

Just shocked at the lack of stuff in the backend of the bullpen - then throw in velo, command, secondary pitches - is this what Miami's delt with the last couple decades or is it rock bottom?

 

[Lance Roffers]

And I know for a fact there are a couple of high level arms we missed on after the draft because we just got outbid on in NIL.

JD does not have the type of $ to work with as the top programs in the country.

So donate to Canes Connection, and specify its for baseball. Because until that money is there we aren't going to get the guys LSU is getting

Agreed we don't compete with LSU in NIL.

Cooper Moore was my #1 transfer pitcher and Miami had no prayer vs. NIL. Miami has its disadvantages, I'm right there with you.

If I'm reading you correctly, you're saying the state of the bullpen is largely not on Arteaga and is on the state of college baseball NIL, unfortunate draft decisions, and some injury luck.

Those are fair points and poor variance can definitely impact a season.