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Four weeks in: An analytical deep(ish) dive.

Bender

Bender

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It is safe to say that the first four weeks of the season can be described as the "best-case-scenario" for all Canes fans around. Miami is playing an exciting brand of football with a standout performance against a talented, but poorly coaches Texas A&M team, and business-performances vs the likes of Miami (OH), Bethune-Cookman and Temple. With the first four weeks gone, it is time to take a deeper look at how the math nerds of the football world are evaluating us against the likes of the other top teams on the board.

Before I start of, here is a disclaimer: I like numbers. But I do not make the numbers. The guys making the numbers have mathematical knowledge way beyond what we have on here on average. Everything will be explained. All of the data is available at: bcftoys.com

So, with that out of the way, lets get started:

There will be multiple ratings being looked at to get a better sense of the evaluation and how different we´re being looked at. There is the FEI rating, named after Brian Fremeau, who is a director at Notre Dame and has created, developed and written about this index for over a decade, there is SP+ by Bill Connelly, a former Data Analyst at the University of Missouri and there is F+, a rating that combines both metrics into one. All of these ratings have some form of preseason projection in them, as the projections of games, the rating system and the evaluation process typically factor in a preseason prediction. As the season goes on, this will be adjusted, so by Week 8, we should have a more accurate look at what is happening around the College Football world.

Here is the official FEI explanation: "FEI Overall Ratings (FEI), Offense Ratings (OFEI), and Defense Ratings (DFEI) are opponent-adjusted data representing the scoring advantage per possession a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent, calculated from the results of non-garbage possessions in FBS vs. FBS games. Net drive efficiency (NDE) is the sum of offensive and defensive drive efficiency. Net points per drive (NPD) is the difference between offensive and opponent offensive points per drive. Net available yards percentage (NAY) is the difference between offensive and opponent offensive available yards percentage. Net yards per play (NPP) is the difference between offensive and opponent offensive yards per play. Strength of schedule ratings represent the expected number of losses an elite team two standard deviations better than average would have against each team's schedule of opponents played (ELS), the expected number of losses a good team one standard deviation above average would have against the schedule (GLS), and the expected number of losses an average team would have against the schedule (ALS)."

So, by the current FEI numbers, here is what we currently have for Miami.

FEI: .43 (28th)
OFEI: .28 (31st)
DFEI: .55 (28th)
ELS: .16 (63rd)
GLS: .55 (80th)
ALS: 1.18 (100th)

These are opponent-adjusted, with preseason projections involved too. This is important to notice, because, two of the four opponents that we played against are relatively low on the scale and Bethune-Cookman is not even present. Plus, with our teams focus of coming out of games healthy whilst cruising to victory once a big enough lead has been established, typically, these teams do not rank as high as they potentially could... right?

Here is the unadjusted, raw data for Miami:

Net drive efficiency: 2.43 (9th)
Net Points Per Drive: 2.50 (9th)
Net available yards percentage: .277 (13th)
Net Yards Per Play: 2.97 (5th)

Take away opponent-adjusting and some preseason projection and Miami is being looked at as a Top 10 team based on its performance. That is a really nice takeaway from a season that has surpassed everyones expectations so far. As the season goes on, if Miami is able to reproduce that level against ACC competition, you will see that non-adjusted and adjusted data will start to match up. To further explain the impact, here is the score projection given out from the model based from the preseason projection and the current performances by the team (Note: Bethune-Cookman is not involved here) in comparison to the actual score (in brackets):

Miami (FL) - Miami (OH): 22.6 - 14.7 (38-3)
Miami (FL) - Texas A&M: 17.2 - 23.7 (48-33)
Miami (FL) - Temple: 31.4 - 13.0 (47-7)

Miami has not only played way above its projection level, it even produced a large upset. Miami might actually get even higher if Miami (OH) continues to win, considering they produced an enormous upset against Cincinnati. So, that game against them might actually have been played far better by us than initially looked at.

According to F+, here is our ranking so far:

F+: 1.14 (19th)
OF+: .94 (25th)
DF+: 1.05 (18th)
SF+: 1.32 (6th)

Before anyone asks me why Special Teams is ranked so high: I assume its because our kicker is elite, our punting game is relatively strong and we have had multiple returns with good gain in yardage and one return TD. All of these things are relatively rare, whilst muffing a punt happens more often than returning a kick for a TD.

With the preseason projections included, F+ ranks us more better than FEI. And remember, F+ is a result of FEI+SP+. If we remove preseason projections for SP+, this happens:



The math nerds like Miami, its just up to us to prove them right.

Added to that, here is some situational data for the ones who have not fallen asleep yet:

1. Miami is elite at creating bigger plays. They rank 3rd in percentage of drives with a play that gains at least ten yards.

2. Miami allows a lot of plays that gain at least four yards (63rd). However, not allowing bigger plays has also been a strong suit, as Miami ranks 18th in the percentage of plays that allow 10 yards+.

3. The sample size is small, so take this with a grain of salt, but: Miami cannot defend short fields so far (thx to a muffed punt and a blocked punt), as they rank 125th.

4. Offensively, Miami has room to go converting short fields into TDs (45th in drives that start less than 60 yards away from the endzone). However, they have been absolutely elite in the medium range (6th, when the drive starts from the own 20-yard-line to the own 40-yard-line).

5. Overall, Miami ranks 9th in Points Per Drive and 5th in Yards Per Play.

In conclusion: We are a good team, but the early projections have been somewhat careful given the level of opposition played. In four weeks, I will revisit this, considering we will be playing Georgia Tech, UNC and Clemson. Till then:

Announces Last Call GIF

Samuel L Jackson Beer GIF
 
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Next 2 games the rush defenses are 128 and 54 in GT and UNC. If we can continue to design runs to use the strengths of the OL, the big play will continue to be there and Tyler will be kept upright. I really think the next two weeks we can see 250+ on the ground total and that leads us to a Clemson game where we will really see if the OL is as good as we advertised!
 
Ill tell you what recent team Miami reminds me of....Michigan, except we have a downfield passing game. They have more size on the DL but we have more threat throwing the ball and imo a better QB. The past few years their OOC has been terrible. We played a more talented team than every team they played in the regular season, except Ohio for like 3 years now. But people put up the same questions about them in relation to their OOC schedule.

Like i said except we played a talented team, one who is more talented than us according to industry people. Michigan style of play, has a very high floor, but a ceiling without a passing game.

If Michigan played A&M, they would have continued to try pounding the ball and making the game very close, we basically abandoned it because they couldnt stop us passing.

As for the defensive stats, i need to see our DL back in tact so i take them with a grain of salt.
 
The U is back to work said:
Next 2 games the rush defenses are 128 and 54 in GT and UNC. If we can continue to design runs to use the strengths of the OL, the big play will continue to be there and Tyler will be kept upright. I really think the next two weeks we can see 250+ on the ground total and that leads us to a Clemson game where we will really see if the OL is as good as we advertised!
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A&M already proved the OL is as good as advertised.

Clemson does not have the DL A&M has. We owned that DL.

We stay healthy and our offensive line is a massive problem for teams.
 
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As X stated at presser WR are playing at a very high level and elevating each other’s game .
I take this ad the whole team , it would not surprise me one bit at all winning the ACCCG .
We are a team that hasn’t come close to topping off , I believe we can’t see the ceiling at all .

X stated this team just prepares and each other pushes one another and won’t allow complacency at all or get off the field for pine time .
We are deep enough for a title run , the cup that everyone ran from in years past in drinking is now the cup we embrace it can be very sweet to champions mindset and bitter to others.

GOCANES
 
The U is back to work said:
Next 2 games the rush defenses are 128 and 54 in GT and UNC. If we can continue to design runs to use the strengths of the OL, the big play will continue to be there and Tyler will be kept upright. I really think the next two weeks we can see 250+ on the ground total and that leads us to a Clemson game where we will really see if the OL is as good as we advertised!
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Because TAMUs D line wasnt legit? we will not face a more talented front 7 then we did against them.
 
Good stuff, OP

I know we are scared to be positive but lets just stop qualifying every positive about our offense talking about our level of competition though

We are ranked where we are despite most of the country playing the same types of schedule we are playing. We are just making the competition look silly right now
 
JHallCanes said:
Good stuff, OP

I know we are scared to be positive but lets just stop qualifying every positive about our offense talking about our level of competition though

We are ranked where we are despite most of the country playing the same types of schedule we are playing. We are just making the competition look silly right now
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i agree, it's beaten fan syndrome ... we have talent, but we've been let down so many times before we look for excuses for it to be a mirage or fugazzi
 
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ageezy said:
i agree, it's beaten fan syndrome ... we have talent, but we've been let down so many times before we look for excuses for it to be a mirage or fugazzi
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We also have not been playing at full strength especially on D so it’s actually ok for us to acknowledge we’ve probably been better than expected in ways.

Like let’s think back to when we were down 17-7 to A&M and we found out Mesidor and Deen were out. Then watching our pass defense be a little rough when by far our best player and the main communicator in the secondary is out.

We’ve been great and even against better comp getting key guys back we actually might not be anywhere near playing our best ball yet
 
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Davis has allowed 11 of 19 passes thrown in his coverage area to be caught, for 115 yards, equal to a strong 75.5 passer rating in his coverage area.

Daryl Porter Jr. has permitted just 5 of 13 passes in his coverage area to be caught, for 40 yards and an interception. That’s a sterling 47 passer rating in his coverage area.

Te’Cory Couch has allowed 15 of 22 passes thrown against him to be caught for 185 yards (too much) and two touchdowns, but he has three interceptions, which explains his solid 84.7 passer rating against.

Among other cornerbacks, UCF transfer Davonte Brown has allowed four of six targets to be caught for 28 yards (77.1 passer rating), and his brother, freshman Damari Brown, has permitted two of seven to be caught, but for 65 yards (a 65.8 rating).

Jadais Richard, the Vanderbilt transfer, has allowed all four targets against him to be caught, for 67 yards.

Read more at: https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/...y-jackson/article273790860.html#storylink=cpy
 
Mauigoa — strong against the pass at Washington State last season - has a 122.2 passer rating in his coverage area (8 completions in 11 targets for 77 yards and a TD).

Opposing teams have completed two of three passes for 31 yards against KJ Cloyd, the Louisville transfer who began the season as a starter but came off the bench against Temple.

Wesley Bissainthe has been stout in coverage (three completions in four targets but for 9 yards total).

Read more at: https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/...y-jackson/article273790860.html#storylink=cpy
 
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