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For some perspective (recruiting rankings through this season)

Katzenboyer

Katzenboyer

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Wanted to throw this out there to give some perspective for where we are, and what we're building towards, and why the results might not be where we want them to be -- and also why we're moving in the right direction.

Looking back to the 2015 class, which would be this year's seniors, our classes were (according to Rivals) ranked #26, #23, #11, and #6 (this year's freshman class). When you look at the elite teams in college football today, you see that their junior and senior classes were all ranked much higher than what we brought in those years.

Alabama: #2 (seniors) and #1 (juniors).
Clemson: #4 (seniors) and #6 (juniors)
Georgia: #6 (seniors) and #9 (juniors)
Oklahoma: #14 (seniors) and #16 (juniors) - the outlier in the Top 5, but still higher than the Canes' #26 and #23-ranked classes.
Ohio State: #9 (seniors) and #3 (juniors)

Even teams that fall in the next tier have talent in the upper classes that were higher-rated.

Auburn: #7 (seniors) and #8 (juniors)
LSU: #8 (seniors) and #5 (juniors)
Notre Dame: #11 (seniors) and #13 (juniors)
Penn State: #15 (seniors) and #21 (juniors)

This tells me a few things:

1. We don't have the depth in the upper classes close to the elites, but we're somewhat closer to the teams that fall in the 10-15 range.

2. We're almost past the Golden-tainted mess that will vault us into a consistent Top 10-15 finisher.

3. Even with a 2019 class that ranks anywhere from #12-#18 this season will not be a significant setback and won't bury us the way the 2015 and 2016 classes did.

4. It's so important to get to double-digit wins this season so we can get back-to-back Top 10 classes in 2020 (good start so far) and 2021.

The important takeaway is that Miami is still slowly building itself to a point of restored confidence where it can consistently win double-digit games and make itself an ACC heavyweight. With that comes the top-ranked classes, which in turn gives us a loaded upperclassmen population that is on par with the elites in the college football today.

We're already seeing what last season did for us with regard to the 2020 class, and if we keep stacking chips, there is no reason we can't be a program that's a constant threat to the playoffs (and we're building towards that). But it also might explain why last year's success accelerated expectations to an unreasonable degree going into this season in light of the lack of depth we still face with our upperclassmen.

TL;DR - be patient. We're headed in the right direction.

**Mods, feel free to move this to the recruiting section if you think it's more appropriately placed there.
 
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Good points. We do need another top 10 class this year to follow up the 2018 class. There is a lot of work to be done there.
 
Do some stats on players leaving early. Miami seems to have markedly more than the rest of the top 25 teams..
 
edge said:
Good points. We do need another top 10 class this year to follow up the 2018 class. There is a lot of work to be done there.
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A class ranked in the 10-15 range won't necessarily be a killer, but the numbers show that if we're going to be a consistent playoff contender, the 2020 and 2021 classes all need to be Top 10.
 
Good points. You win in the fall by winning in February. And to Whoop's point, attrition has to be taken into consideration. We have guys leaving to be 5th and 7th round draft picks and Clemson keeps 3 first rounders.
 
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edge said:
Good points. We do need another top 10 class this year to follow up the 2018 class. There is a lot of work to be done there.
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I don’t think it needs to be top 10 but we need to hit on some of our top targets. Recruiting is best viewed through two classes as that will be your overall picture of the two deep. We desperately need
LT
DEs
DBs
LBs

Feel given what we had available this year, we handled business at LB. We should still add a Mike but it’s a great haul thus far. DE is looking good but we have to get two of Summerall Bogle and Weaver. We need to keep Bogle home ideally here. Neal is the most important piece of this class, end of story. We need a LT and he is our best shot at that. Tyrique and Dent would be great as we still need help here, but I’m not holding my breath whatsoever. Battle is another kid on their level but once again, don’t think we get him. We will see if Nunn is the answer. Kid has talent but as a prospect is below Tyrique and Battle at safety.
 
We really need to step up the level of recruiting this year, but we need the defense to step up overall.. I dont know why but the defensive coaches cant seem to sell kids to play for an attacking defense with a turnover chain for ****. I know most threw the blame on Kul on his way out the door (funny how he was untouchable while he was here tho, hmmm) but that side of ball seem to be missing top targets for awhile. That needs to change ASAP
 
skyman said:
We really need to step up the level of recruiting this year, but we need the defense to step up overall.. I dont know why but the defensive coaches cant seem to sell kids to play for an attacking defense with a turnover chain for ****. I know most threw the blame on Kul on his way out the door (funny how he was untouchable while he was here tho, hmmm) but that side of ball seem to be missing top targets for awhile. That needs to change ASAP
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Fair or not, I still think kids are waiting to see if last year was a mirage, or if Miami is indeed "back." We're past the point where we can sell a new regime (which was a big part of the 2018 class's ranking) and are now in prove it mode.

For some perspective, look at Texas - last year, it could tell kids that there was a new staff in place, and it resulted in the #4 class in the country. Today they're at #11 - despite being in one of the most talent-rich areas in the country - because a lot of high school kids are waiting to see if they can get it done on the field. It also shows when you see that 4 out of the top 10 classes currently on Rivals are teams with brand new coaches.
 
jmccomber5 said:
Good points. You win in the fall by winning in September. And to Whoop's point, attrition has to be taken into consideration. We have guys leaving to be 5th and 7th round draft picks and Clemson keeps 3 first rounders.
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Clemson also had 3 players leave who went 6th rd, 7th rd, undrafted. While our top 2 prospects stayed - JJ, MJ.
 
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Katzenboyer said:
Wanted to throw this out there to give some perspective for where we are, and what we're building towards, and why the results might not be where we want them to be -- and also why we're moving in the right direction.

Looking back to the 2015 class, which would be this year's seniors, our classes were (according to Rivals) ranked #26, #23, #11, and #6 (this year's freshman class). When you look at the elite teams in college football today, you see that their junior and senior classes were all ranked much higher than what we brought in those years.

Alabama: #2 (seniors) and #1 (juniors).
Clemson: #4 (seniors) and #6 (juniors)
Georgia: #6 (seniors) and #9 (juniors)
Oklahoma: #14 (seniors) and #16 (juniors) - the outlier in the Top 5, but still higher than the Canes' #26 and #23-ranked classes.
Ohio State: #9 (seniors) and #3 (juniors)

Even teams that fall in the next tier have talent in the upper classes that were higher-rated.

Auburn: #7 (seniors) and #8 (juniors)
LSU: #8 (seniors) and #5 (juniors)
Notre Dame: #11 (seniors) and #13 (juniors)
Penn State: #15 (seniors) and #21 (juniors)

This tells me a few things:

1. We don't have the depth in the upper classes close to the elites, but we're somewhat closer to the teams that fall in the 10-15 range.

2. We're almost past the Golden-tainted mess that will vault us into a consistent Top 10-15 finisher.

3. Even with a 2019 class that ranks anywhere from #12-#18 this season will not be a significant setback and won't bury us the way the 2015 and 2016 classes did.

4. It's so important to get to double-digit wins this season so we can get back-to-back Top 10 classes in 2020 (good start so far) and 2021.

The important takeaway is that Miami is still slowly building itself to a point of restored confidence where it can consistently win double-digit games and make itself an ACC heavyweight. With that comes the top-ranked classes, which in turn gives us a loaded upperclassmen population that is on par with the elites in the college football today.

We're already seeing what last season did for us with regard to the 2020 class, and if we keep stacking chips, there is no reason we can't be a program that's a constant threat to the playoffs (and we're building towards that). But it also might explain why last year's success accelerated expectations to an unreasonable degree going into this season in light of the lack of depth we still face with our upperclassmen.

TL;DR - be patient. We're headed in the right direction.

**Mods, feel free to move this to the recruiting section if you think it's more appropriately placed there.
Click to expand...

Totally agree with your assessment about "We're almost past the Golden-tainted mess.......
We are still in a rebuilding stacking talent period, but, getting their.
 
It will also help I’d juniors would stay and let the younger guys develop.

If guys like AR, SHAq leave... then we are back to square one.
 
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whoopingcane said:
Do some stats on players leaving early. Miami seems to have markedly more than the rest of the top 25 teams..
Click to expand...
Is it possible those early departures were in part, some of the "golden" mentality, and the new breed will be slightly different (mire inclined to more though out decisions)
Just a thought
 
I think it's important to note that note only do we have to hit on at least 80% of the class, but we need to keep them in school throughout the 4 to 5 years.
Guys like Mahoney, Moten and Redwine who were write-offs ended up filling in gaps with older, well matured physically and mentally bodies and being beyond serviceable, while the talent infusion of more recent classes continue to raise the floor of the program long-term.
 
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M3N said:
It will also help I’d juniors would stay and let the younger guys develop.

If guys like AR, SHAq leave... then we are back to square one.
Click to expand...

Every team has attrition, even the Bamas of the world. Clemson got lucky with their DL this year, but from the 2015 classes, each of the "elites" lost the following guys early:

Clemson: Deon Cain, Ray Ray McLoud.
Alabama: Minkah Fitzpatrick, Calvin Ridley, Daron Payne, Ronnie Harrison, Shawn Burgess-Becker (transfer), Mekhi Brown (transfer)
OSU: Jerome Baker, Torrance Gibson (transfer), Jamel Dean (transfer), Denzel Ward
UGA: Trenton Thompson, Roquan Smith
OU: Dede Westbrook (there are probably more, but I don't know the depth players on the teams very well to know enough about who transferred or suffered career-ending injuries)

Difference was, they had their junior class to pick up the slack. We don't.

Once we've stacked chips so that our classes are Top 15 year in and year out, we have a chance to be special. Right now, the depth of our upper classes is poor, and they weren't highly-rated to begin with. That's the difference between UM and the elites, and it shows on the field.
 
Great thread OP! With stats to back up your premises.

A program doesn't come "back" in just 2 or 3 years after over 15 years of mediocrity. The point that stuck out to me was the depth from the previous regime. I think that gets lost in many conversations.
 
I prefer to look at the needs and how we fill them at the player level, tbh. You can stack your team with 4/5 star WRs like Ole Miss, and still get crushed by Bama because the rest of your roster isn't up to the task.

Our greatest positions of need are OL, DL, LB, DB. Right now, we've got quality commits at LB, and the right combination of targets at the other three position groups. But we need to close those uncommitted guys on our boards to make this a quality class. I don't think it matters where Rivals and ESPN rank the class if the coaches land enough of the key targets (Bogle, Summerall, Weaver, Ingraham, Neal, Davis, Stevenson, Battle, Dent, Nunn) or replace them with equivalents (e.g., like they did grabbing Jeff Thomas when they missed on Jeudy).
 
PGrady24 said:
A lot of good points. Definitely some work to do still in 2019

4 or 5 star players since 2015:
2015 - 5
2016 - 9
2017 - 10
2018 - 15
2019 - 7 (so far)
Click to expand...

All of our remaining targets are 4 or 5 stars.
Neal
MAR
Bogle
Zipper (sp)
Weaver
Sumrall
Haselwood
McIntosh
Stevenson
Nunn (4star?)

Then you add that Crowley will be a 4 star when it is all said and done. This class will be around 60% blue chip ratio, which it’s proven you have to be every year to be if you want to be amongst the top tier of programs.
 
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