futurecane
Redshirt Freshman
- Joined
- Nov 5, 2011
- Messages
- 440
I’ll leave the discussion to the football and execution of plays to others, but I wanted to address something basic: statistical probability, and reversion to mean.
Before you roll your eyes, let me explain. If you have any experiment (rolling dice, flipping coins, etc), but limit the amount of rolls or throws, you maximize the impact of “long tail” occurrences. In other words, flukes and bounces can play a much bigger impact that than they normally would.
In football terms, I’m talking about drives. If you play a slow, plodding, clock eating offense style, you minimize the number of times you roll that dice. If on any given drive you have a 50% chance of scoring a TD, but you only do 4 drives a game, it’s not at all unusual to not score any points (6.25%). But double the number of drives to 8, and the probability of 0 points is 0.39%.
That’s what Mario is clueless about, today we were the better team, but didn’t give ourselves enough chances to revert to mean (I.e., return to average).
Basic math, pay me $6m to tell our coach that…
Before you roll your eyes, let me explain. If you have any experiment (rolling dice, flipping coins, etc), but limit the amount of rolls or throws, you maximize the impact of “long tail” occurrences. In other words, flukes and bounces can play a much bigger impact that than they normally would.
In football terms, I’m talking about drives. If you play a slow, plodding, clock eating offense style, you minimize the number of times you roll that dice. If on any given drive you have a 50% chance of scoring a TD, but you only do 4 drives a game, it’s not at all unusual to not score any points (6.25%). But double the number of drives to 8, and the probability of 0 points is 0.39%.
That’s what Mario is clueless about, today we were the better team, but didn’t give ourselves enough chances to revert to mean (I.e., return to average).
Basic math, pay me $6m to tell our coach that…