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Final EPA offense/defense graphs

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caneworld said:
If the Southern Miss QB could hit the broad side of a barn, we would have had another close loss. There were recievers running open all over the field.
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Not wrong but that's football in general, and college football as well. If we could catch a punt, we probably beat A&M. Last year, if we kick a FG literally an inch away from where we did, we beat UVA. Etc. etc. etc. Can't play Monday morning QB, even though yes we didn't exactly set the world on fire against Southern Miss either.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
I’ve posted a few of these throughout the season, but these are the final EPA numbers for offense and defense now that the regular season is over.

These are adjusted for opponent and for location, so beating up on Broward Community College at home doesn’t move the needle like beating Georgia on the road would.

But the moral of the story here is, the defense was slightly below average. We had about an average rushing defense, we had a slightly below average passing defense. We obviously gave up way too many explosive plays and the coverage was bad at times, but the unit played about what was expected, imo. Not good enough, nothing to get excited about, but overall, not flat out embarrassing.

The offense was a complete abortion. There were only a few offenses that were worse in both metrics. Rushing offense was worse than passing, but they were actually pretty close to being equally horrific. Just look at this. There are only 4 teams who were overall worse. UMass, Rutgers, Iowa, and Northwestern. That’s all. This is 100000% grounds to be fired as an OC, obviously. Even with the injuries, an above average OC gets us to 8-9 wins by having an average offense.

OU is a good comparison example. Their defense was about average, like ours. But their offense was slightly above average. Not great, but just OK. They went 6-6 with their last 3 losses all by 3 points. Average team, just a bounce or two away from being 8-4ish.

But pair our meh defense with a truly historic offense, and you get 5-7 with multiple blowout losses.View attachment 216880View attachment 216879
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Yea this is what i use epa
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
I’ve posted a few of these throughout the season, but these are the final EPA numbers for offense and defense now that the regular season is over.

These are adjusted for opponent and for location, so beating up on Broward Community College at home doesn’t move the needle like beating Georgia on the road would.

But the moral of the story here is, the defense was slightly below average. We had about an average rushing defense, we had a slightly below average passing defense. We obviously gave up way too many explosive plays and the coverage was bad at times, but the unit played about what was expected, imo. Not good enough, nothing to get excited about, but overall, not flat out embarrassing.

The offense was a complete abortion. There were only a few offenses that were worse in both metrics. Rushing offense was worse than passing, but they were actually pretty close to being equally horrific. Just look at this. There are only 4 teams who were overall worse. UMass, Rutgers, Iowa, and Northwestern. That’s all. This is 100000% grounds to be fired as an OC, obviously. Even with the injuries, an above average OC gets us to 8-9 wins by having an average offense.

OU is a good comparison example. Their defense was about average, like ours. But their offense was slightly above average. Not great, but just OK. They went 6-6 with their last 3 losses all by 3 points. Average team, just a bounce or two away from being 8-4ish.

But pair our meh defense with a truly historic offense, and you get 5-7 with multiple blowout losses.View attachment 216880View attachment 216879
Click to expand...
What an epic group to be around hahaha God we suck
 
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