I've said it before, but things are really all in line for a major upset.
Miami has a new, first time HC, tainted by being associated with the previous coach. The offense was anemic last year and some big names on defense have graduated. We still don't have a clear leader at the QB position. People simply don't expect much.
Florida came on strong at the end of the season and are ranked tenth preseason. There's no reason to think they won't steamroll an unranked Miami team.
The problem is if you look closely, you'll see that first glance is completely false.
Anyone who really watched Florida last year knows they were nowhere near as good as that record—especially offensively.
They rolled a completely demoralized Michigan team in the Peach Bowl—one that got waxed 62-39 by an Ohio State team they SWORE they were gonna take down for the first time under Harbaugh. They were walking zombies in Atlanta for the bowl game.
Before that they beat the brakes off a Florida State team that was 5-6 and lost three of their past four. A week prior; home game against Idaho; standard SEC late regular season November game to rest up, pad stats, get a win, etc.
The four games before that are more telling. South Carolina took them to the wire in a 35-31 Gators home win—and the Gamecocks were not a good squad in 2018. Before that, Missouri came into the Swamp and rolled, 38-17—on the heels of a 36-17 loss to Georgia and a comeback win at Vanderbilt the week before.
Florida built their 2018 rep on that upset of LSU in the Swamp. Period. The went from No. 22 that week—5-1after winning a few games after the early loss to Kentucky. They then jumped to No. 14 going into the Vandy game and rose five spots to No. 9 going into the showdown with Georgia—but only dropped four spots after losing.
Somehow at 6-3 (after losing to Mizzou)—Florida was STILL ranked No. 19—and after wins over South Carolina, Idaho and Florida State (with no SEC title game)—were No. 10 when the played Michigan.
We'll see what Miami winds up fielding game one under Diaz and Enos—but the Gators are as fat and bloated a preseason team as I can remember in forever. Lest not forget this was a 4-7 squad in 2017—that went 10-3 year one under Mullen ... yet their idiot fan base doesn't think Diaz can build off of 7-6, despite the fact the Canes were 10-3 the year prior.