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ESPN: Ranking all 131 college football quarterback situations in tiers

AtlAtty said:
I’m torn on this. I loved Rambo and Harley and they are UM record holders. But the NFL basically told everyone that they are not pro receivers.
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I understand Harley but Rambo not being drafted early was strange. but you are probably right - they aren't irreplaceable or unique talents. maybe guys will adequately fill their shoes.
 
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OrangeBowlMagic said:
Vs. FBS competition in 2021:

Caleb Williams 172.07 rating, #5 overall
Tyler Van Dyke 152.13 rating, #27 overall

Caleb Williams 9.1 YPA, #7 overall
Tyler Van Dyke 8.5 YPA, #18 overall

Caleb Williams 65.2% completions, #28 overall
Tyler Van Dyke 61.3% completions, #64 overall

Caleb Williams had 4 INTs in 201 pass attempts, good for a 1.99% INT rate
TVD had 6 INTs in 313 pass attempts, good for a 1.92 INT rate

Caleb Williams had 21 TDs in 201 pass attempts, good for a 10.45% TD rate
TVD had 22 TDs in 313 pass attempts, good for a 7.03% TD rate

Williams also ran for 435 yards and 6 TDs on 79 attempts (in college football, sacks count as rushing attempts)
TVD ran for 57 yards on 53 attempts and 1 TD

I am incredibly excited for TVD's 2022 season. He was very impressive last year, overall. But the amount of ****ting on Williams on this board is baffling to me. He looked awful at times? When? They lost 2 games last year, and one was a game his team scored 24 first-half points and he had 288 yards of offense and no turnovers? The Baylor game he definitely looked bad. But he's a true freshman playing a Dave Aranda defense on the road.

IDK....I'm rocking with my guy TVD for sure. I'm really looking forward to how he builds off last year. But the way people talk on this board like he's Dan Marino and Caleb Williams is garbage juice is really weird. Williams was ******* filthy last year overall, and with what prep? He wasn't the starter until Game 4 or 5 and it was his first year in school.
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When?

The last 3 games of the season - where he was benched. You mentioned Baylor. And maybe he was just seeing Dave Aranda ghosts the next week against Iowa State, but garbage juice was more palatable then Williams' performance that game. I remember I was curious why the number 5 team in the country was only a 3.5 point favorite against a 6-4, rather mediocre, big 12 team. Poor QB play was the reason (that day, anyway). And - in the game where the team scored 24 points in the first half (congrats) the offense was shutout in the second half (4 punts, 2 fumbles [1 was a muffed punt, the other was Williams], 2 turnover on downs).

None of that to say Williams is "garbage." Kid is obviously talented and Lincoln Riley isn't going to let a jag run his offense. He will likely put up huge numbers in Riley's system, throwing to a Belitnikoff winner. Still, if I had to pick between Williams and TVD to hit a crosser on 3rd and 12, in two-minute offense, I'm rolling with VanDimes (simply because I've seen him do it, a few times, and the two games I watched of Williams' he couldn't).
 
Jassid82 said:
I think that Williams tier 1 projections is based on him being at USC, in Riley's offense with a primetime RB (Dye) and 2 first round draft picks at WR. (Williams and Addison). Its hard to argue that he SHOULD be top 4 this season. Its all laid out for him.

Van Dyke can prove that hes worthy and isnt all hype soon enough when we go to College station.

If we are talking pro potential..Van Dyke would be #2 behind Stroud. I would put him ahead of Young. I dont like what him seeing from Tua as far as pro ability. Its not translating fast enough. And Young reminds me of Tua in everyway. I would be interested to see if scouts take a harder look at Young during combine and personal workout season to find any "Tua like" tendencies so they dont make the same mistake twice. (Tua over Herbert in the draft)
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If Williams fails to impress in that QB-friendly offense, with arguably the best WR core in the nation, then I think we can all agree that he’s been severely overrated.

With that said, I think he’ll have a good year. I just wouldn’t anoint him yet. He doesn’t deserve to be seen as a tier-1 college quarterback YET.
 
itsacanething said:
I love TVD but he had receivers that made him look good last year. a drop off in production, particularly in deep balls and 50/50 balls will have a negative impact on TVD's numbers. I hope this doesn't happen.
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Not unusual for a QB who was thrust into action and took advantage of the opportunity (like TVD), to take a step or two backwards in the following year when much is expected!
 
Interesting that they wrote TVD into Tier 2 with Leary and Rising...

But they put him (I think, lol) on their Mt. Rushmore of QB's illustration. So safe to say they have him at #4 and knocking at the door ahead of Leary and Rising. Nice.

Also you could argue they are saying that the ACC has 5 of the top 10 QBs in CFB this year.

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grover said:
Can’t wait to see how this all plays out. TVD is a major talent but he won’t have the element of surprise now. At least in terms of his skill set and any tells. A new OC will make it harder on opponents. But you can be sure they’ve deconstructed every tendency and habit he exposed last season. Need a Rambo or better to emerge.
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I can understand this viewpoint but the element of surprise isn't needed when you throw with velocity and can consistently place the ball within extremely tight windows. Defenses will have more time to prepare for him sure, but that can't take away his strengths. The biggest challenge for him will be how he masters an entirely new offense and how he can overcome a possibly very mediocre WR group, although Gattis will shoulder plenty of that responsibility too.
 
Damiencane86 said:
I can understand this viewpoint but the element of surprise isn't needed when you throw with velocity and can consistently place the ball within extremely tight windows. Defenses will have more time to prepare for him sure, but that can't take away his strengths. The biggest challenge for him will be how he masters an entirely new offense and how he can overcome a possibly very mediocre WR group, although Gattis will shoulder plenty of that responsibility too.
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No doubt. I also don't think Rambo and Harley were necessarily all world, so Gattis may be handicapped in some ways, but he has more than enough talent surrounding TVD to adjust. And it's not like TVD himself has been sitting around playing video games. He's worked hard which will hopefully overcome any additional preparation opponents can do. I'm excited to see what he can do.
 
Cryptical Envelopment said:
Interesting that they wrote TVD into Tier 2 with Leary and Rising...

But they put him (I think, lol) on their Mt. Rushmore of QB's illustration. So safe to say they have him at #4 and knocking at the door ahead of Leary and Rising. Nice.

Also you could argue they are saying that the ACC has 5 of the top 10 QBs in CFB this year.

View attachment 188052
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ACC will be better than usual this year, and that’s 100% due to quarterback play. Put the ACC head to head with any other conference in that regard and it’s not even close. Deepest and most talented quarterback conference from top to bottom.
 
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I’m in the TVD camp, but y oh y do ya’ll make me do this every yr, defending a player for asinine comments?! My favorite, & our favorite word should be “context” every time empty stats r thrown about to prove a point. There’s no need to trash Williams to elevate TVD, but let’s not act like Williams had a subpar yr by comparison.

1. QBRs:
-Williams (169.6)
-TVD (160.1)

2. Both QBs started late in season:
-TVDs 1st start, game 4 vs. Central Conn at home
-Williams 1st start , game 6 vs. UT rivalry neutral site

3. Avg Def rankings each QB faced
-TVD (Total Def - 81st / Passing Def - 90th)
-Williams (Total Def - 68th / Passing Def -68th)

4. Avg. Attempt/g
-TVD (36)
-Williams (25)

5. TD/int ratio
-TVD (4:1)
-Williams (5:1)

6. Total TDs Accounted For:
-TVD (26)
-Williams (27)

7. Total Games Started:
-TVD (9)
-Williams (8)

8. Pedestrian Games
-TVD (2 - UNC & UVA)
-Williams (2 - Baylor & Iowa St)

**UVA: 121st in Total Def / 87th in Passing Def
**UNC: 94th in Total Def / 84th in Passing Def
Vs.
**Baylor: 31st in Total Def / 65th in Passing Def
**Iowa St: 9th in Total Def / 11th in Passing Def

9. Record per start:
-TVD (6-3)
-Williams (7-2)

In conclusion, yes TVD had more yards passing, but he also started one more game, threw the ball more, & played against inferior defenses compared to Caleb. Furthermore, even though Caleb played against better defenses on avg. & in one less game, he still had :
-a higher TD:int ratio
-accounted for more total TDs
-had a higher total completion %, (despite TVD throwing for 90% one game against CCSU)

While it’s also true TVD avg. more yards/g, Williams throwing the ball 11 less times/g plays a factor. Factoring only the games Williams started, his avg. yards/completion was 13.92. If he threw the ball 11 more times at 64.5% clip, that would be an additional 7 completions/game at around 97 add’l yards/g (97 yrds x 8 gms = 780 add’l yrds missing from his stat line). That would put him right around the total yrds (a little less) than TVD w/ one less game played.

This is why these guys who rank players go waaaay deeper than just surface #’s. There’s a lot more chit that goes into this, which is y it’s futile to try to bring up certain stats to make an argument. Numbers can lie if u don’t do a complete contextual diagnosis. Williams is good & so is TVD.
 
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Genghis Cane said:
ACC will be better than usual this year, and that’s 100% due to quarterback play. Put the ACC head to head with any other conference in that regard and it’s not even close. Deepest and most talented quarterback conference from top to bottom.
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Interesting; outside of TVD who are these QBs in the ACC?
 
Cryptical Envelopment said:
Interesting that they wrote TVD into Tier 2 with Leary and Rising...

But they put him (I think, lol) on their Mt. Rushmore of QB's illustration. So safe to say they have him at #4 and knocking at the door ahead of Leary and Rising. Nice.

Also you could argue they are saying that the ACC has 5 of the top 10 QBs in CFB this year.

View attachment 188052
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GIF by Tiffany
 
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Rellyrell said:
No, I do not.
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You know I respect your opinion, man, so share your list. Who is above them?

Young, Stroud, and Rising are all better, in my opinion, but then you get into next tier and things are not as clear cut.

This isn’t just me saying this, by the way. The ESPN article linked above validates my claim.

Here’s how they did it:

Tier 1: Young (SEC), Williams (Pac12), Stroud (B1G)

Tier 2: TVD (ACC), Leary (ACC), Rising (Pac12), Bennett (SEC)

Tier 3: Armstrong (ACC), Hartman (ACC), Cunningham (ACC), Hooker (SEC), McCall (SunBelt), O’Connell (B1G), Rogers (SEC), Jefferson (SEC)

Totals:

ACC — 5
SEC — 5
Pac12 — 2
B1G — 2
Big 12 — 0

We have a tendency to view the ACC as weak so we don’t give credit where it’s due. The ACC is loaded at quarterback — that’s a fact. The only conference that comes close is the SEC.

I’m taking TVD, Leary, Hartman, Armstrong, and Cunningham over Young, Hooker, Rogers, Bennett, and Jefferson. And to be honest, I don’t think it’s very close.
 
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