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ESPN Phil Steele Article

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he says he thinks vegas will move it to 7 or 7.5 in the near future so it is a good bet now
 
Vegas isn't moving that line to 7.5. It would be basically unprecedented.

The absolute most it will move is +-1 game.
 
Some people will actually have to put some money on the over for it to move up, right?
 
Cane Dynasty said:
Vegas isn't moving that line to 7.5. It would be basically unprecedented.

The absolute most it will move is +-1 game.
Click to expand...

Exactly. Lines don't jump in the positive direction to that extent. Only the opposite can be true due to injury, suspensions, etc.
 
Cane Dynasty said:
Vegas isn't moving that line to 7.5. It would be basically unprecedented.

The absolute most it will move is +-1 game.
Click to expand...

Ive mentioned it in 2 odds threads with last month. Vegas has not set the line yet. That 5.5 is a unicorn from an offshore book that takes $100 limits. Anybody whos sharp or bets anything that matters hasnt chimed in yet. I stick by my original 7 ish win total.
 
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___THEU___ said:
Cane Dynasty said:
Vegas isn't moving that line to 7.5. It would be basically unprecedented.

The absolute most it will move is +-1 game.
Click to expand...

Ive mentioned it in 2 odds threads with last month. Vegas has not set the line yet. That 5.5 is a unicorn from an offshore book that takes $100 limits. Anybody whos sharp or bets anything that matters hasnt chimed in yet. I stick by my original 7 ish win total.
Click to expand...

That's mostly correct. Las Vegas is incredibly scared and reluctant when posting numbers like this. It's laughable that somehow the sportsbooks have a reputation as bold and all-knowing and, "You can bet on anything, honey!" The reverse is closer to the truth. They love to throw the future odds out there early because that pool carries an incredibly high take and it only goes up. When some nitwit takes the Canes at let's say 50/1 to win the national championship game, those odds may drop but nothing else rises. Hence the take goes up.

If every number in pools like that were doubled, the payout would be closer to what it should be. Fans have no idea how stupid they are when betting into those future book odds. At the Horseshoe we used to joke that the Cubs could be Even money every year and we'd still get a flood of cash throughout the offseason. Tourists walk to the counter with little sheets of paper: Uncle Martin want $20 on the Saints. My son Raptildo wants $50 on the Cowboys. And so forth.

Why should the sportsbooks rush to put up the season win over/unders, a market with considerably more wise guy vulnerability for them, when they can allow all the sucker money to pile up in the base future book odds?

A decade or so ago there were maybe 20 more independent sportsbooks in Las Vegas. That dramatic shift probably isn't widely recognized from afar. Harrah's became an acquisition monster, and so did MGM/Mirage. Consequently most sportsbooks these days are mere satellites, as opposed to the '80s and '90s when virtually every casino had its own joint with independent numbers. The only exceptions in those days were the Leroys sportsbooks. That was a company that offered mostly smaller casinos an ability to field a sportsbook but not actually have to operate it themselves. The numbers and decisions came from elsewhere, the hub.

Now there only a handful of hubs, and otherwise a town of satellites. Pathetic. It impacts a market like season win/over unders. Maybe 15 years ago there were always bold guys at some sportsbooks who were willing to take risk and throw up the numbers early. Now those bold guys have been absorbed by the goliaths, who prefer to be very scared and wait...wait...wait.

There still might be a small Nevada sportsbook somewhere that has already thrown up the numbers. I'm not there full time anymore so I'm not aware of a specific example.

Anyway, the juice on the Canes is now 5.5 with -215 on the over. That's the sensible direction. It basically means that the 5.5 was a full game low, according to the early money. One dollar juice equates to a full game. So when the other spots go up I would expect a mixture of 6 over and maybe 6.5 flat or 6.5 with slight juice on the under.

That's exactly what I forecast several weeks ago, when Chris Andrews' article got some mention. His 5.5 over -120 was simply too low.

In looking at the 5Dimes numbers, there is likelihood of at least one team with a 2 game upward move. The juice on Washington is now -350 on over 4. That is at least a 1.5 game push, if not 2 full games. I have no idea how Washington was so low at 4 to begin with. They lost a ton of guys early in the draft. The coach is Chris Petersen. Hard to imagine him winning 3 games or fewer.
 
Tad Footeball said:
Cane Dynasty said:
Vegas isn't moving that line to 7.5. It would be basically unprecedented.

The absolute most it will move is +-1 game.
Click to expand...

Exactly. Lines don't jump in the positive direction to that extent. Only the opposite can be true due to injury, suspensions, etc.
Click to expand...

Wonder what would happen if Al quit? 7.5? Then again what would happen if Butch replaced him? 8.5
 
Gatorhater said:
Tad Footeball said:
Cane Dynasty said:
Vegas isn't moving that line to 7.5. It would be basically unprecedented.

The absolute most it will move is +-1 game.
Click to expand...

Exactly. Lines don't jump in the positive direction to that extent. Only the opposite can be true due to injury, suspensions, etc.
Click to expand...

Wonder what would happen if Al quit? 7.5? Then again what would happen if Butch replaced him? 8.5
Click to expand...

Wouldn't move up cause of coaching change regardless of who is hired. Only way it could go due to coaching change is down.
 
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