FreeVilma
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This week we talked with Miami quarterback Brad Kaaya, who said one of the focal points for the Hurricanes this offseason is getting better in clutch situations -- i.e. red zone, goal-to-go and third down. Last season, Miami ranked 103rd in red-zone TD rate, 112th in goal-to-go TD rate and 95th in third-down conversion rate.
Perhaps those numbers aren’t so surprising given that Kaaya was a true freshman, and those situations put the most pressure on the quarterback. But there are a lot of conflicting numbers and explanations when it comes to Miami’s offensive efficiency.
Here’s what Kaaya had to say: "A lot of our third down issues are getting into third-and-manageable. A lot of times last year it was third-and-10."
It certainly sounds good, only the stats don’t back that up.
For one, Miami’s rate of 6.58 yards-per-play on first down was the second-best in the ACC (trailing only Georgia Tech). Good first-down plays tend to lead to manageable third-down plays. As such, Miami ran just 4.6 third-and-longs (8 yards or more for a first) per game last season, which was the sixth lowest average among Power 5 teams. Of the five teams that ran fewer, four won 10-plus games and three played in New Years Six bowls.
So if it’s not the number of third-and-long situations Miami found itself in last season, perhaps it’s how the Canes handled that adversity. And in that department, Kaaya has a legitimate point.
Last season, Miami converted just 16.7 percent of its third-and-long attempts. That ranked 58th out of 65 Power 5 teams -- just behind Wake Forest. But here’s the thing about Kaaya’s role in that: He really wasn’t that bad.
On third-and-long throws, Kaaya was 27-of-45 for 398 yards. That completion percentage ranked ninth among Power 5 quarterbacks. So, too, did his 8.84 yards-per-attempt average. Of the 21 Power 5 quarterbacks who averaged at least 8 yards-per-attempt, only two converted fewer than 25 percent of their third-and-long tries. Kaaya was at the rock bottom of that group and 55th among all Power 5 passers, converting just 18.8 percent, a touch below Clemson's Cole Stoudt (who averaged just 5.17 yards-per-attempt).
So how does it make sense that a quarterback who completes 60 percent of his third-and-long throws converts just 18.8 percent of those chances? The answer is play-calling, where Miami took virtually no chances with Kaaya in key situations. According to ESPN Stats & Info, Kaaya's average pass on third-and-long traveled just 7.5 yards in the air -- 63rd among 67 Power 5 passers with 25 such attempts. Twenty-seven of his 45 throws on third-and-8 (or longer) traveled less than eight yards. He completed 18 of those, but just three went for first downs. How much of that is the play call and how much is Kaaya checking down too quickly is an open question, but either way, the results are atrocious and Kaaya wants things to change.
"One thing we’ve definitely worked on is the red zone, throwing into tight windows, being able to cram balls in the goal line and short yardage and especially on third down," Kaaya said.
Still, that’s not the whole story. Those third-and-longs were a problem, but they weren’t the only problem. In fact, on third-and-short (3 yards or less to a first), Miami was just as bad. The Canes converted a woeful 54.7 percent of its third-and-short chances, good for 58th among Power 5 schools -- again trailing even Wake Forest. Of its 53 third-and-short plays, more than one-third went for a loss or no gain -- an astonishing number given Miami’s strong offensive line play, deep backfield and a tight end who was a Mackey Award finalist.
As with seemingly all things Miami last season, the on-paper version of the team and the realities of the season simply don’t match. There was a boatload of talent but too few positive results.
There are a lot of ways to measure efficiency and effectiveness, but here’s one: Yards-per-point. Miami averaged 14.72 yards for every point it scored, which ranked 84th nationally. In other words, the offense had to work harder than most to score the same number of points. Of the 41 teams worse, only two won eight games or more. It’s a tough way to win games -- particularly when you’re not running an up-tempo offense.
But as Kaaya said, the best way to address that inefficiency is to make the most of those critical situations, and that’s where Miami’s focus is now. Whether it works or not (and, it’s worth noting that those red zone, goal-to-go and third-down stats have been below average throughout Al Golden’s tenure) remains to be seen.
"A lot more opportunities could’ve been created if we’d just stayed on the field a few more plays," Kaaya said. "A lot of guys put up crazy numbers in our offense, but more points could’ve been scored if we just stayed on the field."
http://espn.go.com/blog/acc/print?id=81813
