Empirical Cane
We are what we repeatedly do.
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EMPIRICALLY SPEAKING | Week 7 Preview: Florida State vs No. 3 Miami (FL)
Hurricanes allow 9.8 points per game — 1st in the ACC. Florida State averages 31.0. That's the gap.
No. 3 Miami hosts Florida State at Hard Rock Stadium (Orange Out) on Saturday, Oct 17 at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN. Our Canes are 5–0 (3–0 ACC) off a bye (oh goodness); the Seminoles are 3–3 (1–2 ACC) after a 20–44 loss at Louisville.
THE NUMBERS (per game)
Stats through 5 Miami (FL) games / 6 FSU games. Source: ACC.
3 KEYS I'LL GRADE AFTER THE GAME
PLAYERS TO WATCH
INJURIES
Miami (FL)
Offense
Defense
Florida State
Offense
Defense
MIAMI (FL) SNAP COUNTS
Week 5 vs Clemson (no new count over the bye). Per CanesInSight reporting (PFF data).
Offense
Defense
GENERALISSMO CHIMPY'S PICK
Miami (FL) 38–17
Last week was a bye (no pick). Week 5 pick: 35–17, actual 41–13.
What Say You?: Can Miami (FL)'s 9.8 PAPG defense keep Ashton Daniels under 20 points — or does the dual-threat (10 rush TD) force a shootout?
Did I Make It All Up?: ACC stats; UM schedule; ESPN team/stats; SI / FSU Wire / Tomahawk Nation (injuries); CanesInSight reporting, PFF data (snap counts). Stats as of Thu Oct 15, 2026 ET.
Of Course,
Hurricanes allow 9.8 points per game — 1st in the ACC. Florida State averages 31.0. That's the gap.
No. 3 Miami hosts Florida State at Hard Rock Stadium (Orange Out) on Saturday, Oct 17 at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN. Our Canes are 5–0 (3–0 ACC) off a bye (oh goodness); the Seminoles are 3–3 (1–2 ACC) after a 20–44 loss at Louisville.
THE NUMBERS (per game)
| Stat | Miami (FL) | Florida State |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored | 49.6 | 31.0 |
| Total yards | 554.8 | 409.5 |
| Yards per play | 8.2 | 6.3 |
| Yards per pass | 10.5 | 8.6 |
| Points allowed | 9.8 | 25.3 |
| Rush yards allowed | 42.6 | 165.5 |
Stats through 5 Miami (FL) games / 6 FSU games. Source: ACC.
3 KEYS I'LL GRADE AFTER THE GAME
- Hold FSU under 300 total yards (season 409.5 YPG)
- Hold FSU to 20 or fewer points (season 31.0 PPG)
- Miami (FL) 10+ Yds/pass (season 10.5)
PLAYERS TO WATCH
| Side | Player | Line |
|---|---|---|
| Miami (FL) | QB Darian Mensah | 112/133, 1,438, 15 TD, 0 INT |
| Miami (FL) | WR Malachi Toney | 39–604–6 |
| Miami (FL) | DL Marquise Lightfoot | 5.0 sacks, returning |
| FSU | QB Ashton Daniels | 91/153, 1,320, 8 TD, 7 INT + 70–323–10 rush |
| FSU | RB Ousmane Kromah | 100–565–5 |
INJURIES
Miami (FL)
Offense
| Player (Last, First) | Pos | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Brown, CharMar | RB | Out (season) |
| Buchanan, Max | OL | Out |
| Gilbert, Luka | TE | Out (season) |
| Moore, Joshua | WR | Out (season) |
Defense
| Player (Last, First) | Pos | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Antoine, Ja'Boree | DB | Out |
| Brown, Damari | DB | Returned |
| Frederique Jr., Romanas "OJ" | DB | Out |
| Lightfoot, Marquise | DL | Returned |
| Lucas, Xavier | DB | Returned |
| Marcelin Jr., Ezekiel | LB | Returned |
Florida State
Offense
| Player (Last, First) | Pos | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Bowling, Paul | OL | Probable |
| Carter, Devin | WR | Out |
| Singleton Jr., Samuel | RB | Out |
Defense
| Player (Last, First) | Pos | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Crutchfield, Jordan | DB | Out |
| Desir, Darryll | DL | Probable |
| Green, Daylen | LB | Out |
| Hobbs, Karson | DB | Out |
| Howard, Jamari | DB | Out |
| LaVallee, Noah | LB | Questionable |
| Nichelson, Blake | LB | Out |
| Thomas, Zae | DB | Probable |
| Williams, Izayia | LB | Out |
MIAMI (FL) SNAP COUNTS
Week 5 vs Clemson (no new count over the bye). Per CanesInSight reporting (PFF data).
Offense
| Player (Last, First) | Pos | Snaps |
|---|---|---|
| Alofaituli, SJ | OL | 33 |
| Barkate, Cooper | WR | 61 |
| Briggs, Israel | TE | 4 |
| Buchanan, Max | OL | 39 |
| Congdon, Ben | OL | 60 |
| Fletcher, Mark | RB | 42 |
| Jacobs, Vandrevius | WR | 11 |
| Lofton, Elija | TE | 55 |
| Lyle, Jordan | RB | 3 |
| Mallory, Javian | RB | 24 |
| McConathy II, Cole | TE | 3 |
| McCoy, Matthew | OL | 60 |
| Mensah, Darian | QB | 66 |
| Meriweather, Jamal | OL | 6 |
| Mueller, Gavin | TE | 21 |
| Okunlola, Samson | OL | 66 |
| Pringle Jr., Girard | RB | 3 |
| Rodriguez, Ryan | OL | 66 |
| Spafford, Vance | WR | 2 |
| Toney, Malachi | WR | 62 |
| Upshaw, Daylyn | WR | 39 |
Defense
| Player (Last, First) | Pos | Snaps |
|---|---|---|
| Blount, Armondo | DL | 28 |
| Bonner, Kamal | LB | 8 |
| Brown, Damari | DB | 6 |
| Carter, Jarquez | DL | 18 |
| Davis, Keona | DL | 5 |
| Day, Dylan | DB | 54 |
| Dunnigan, JJ | DB | 25 |
| Fitzgerald, Bryce | DB | 74 |
| Lafayette, DeAnthony | DL | 17 |
| Lightfoot, Marquise | DL | 21 |
| Mack, Ryan | DB | 26 |
| Moten Sr., Ahmad | DL | 38 |
| O'Connor, Ethan | DB | 66 |
| Pickett Jr., Booker | DL | 26 |
| Poyser, Zechariah | DB | 72 |
| Pruitt, Cam | LB | 16 |
| Scott, Justin | DL | 46 |
| Scroggins, Third | DL | 40 |
| Smith, Chase | LB | 53 |
| Thornton, Omar | DB | 74 |
| Toure, Mohamed | LB | 58 |
| Wiley Jr., Kellen | LB | 9 |
| Wilson, Damon | DL | 56 |
GENERALISSMO CHIMPY'S PICK
Miami (FL) 38–17
Last week was a bye (no pick). Week 5 pick: 35–17, actual 41–13.
What Say You?: Can Miami (FL)'s 9.8 PAPG defense keep Ashton Daniels under 20 points — or does the dual-threat (10 rush TD) force a shootout?
Did I Make It All Up?: ACC stats; UM schedule; ESPN team/stats; SI / FSU Wire / Tomahawk Nation (injuries); CanesInSight reporting, PFF data (snap counts). Stats as of Thu Oct 15, 2026 ET.
Of Course,
