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Official Emory Williams - 2023 QB COMMIT

01Canes said:
And here's why...

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292 five-star recruits vs. 16,367 three-star recruits in the time span specified above. There are astronomically more 3* recruits than 5* recruits, which is why any star-ranking discussion has to revolve around percentages in order for it to make any logical sense.

Let's take it a step further. Here is a table of the consensus All-Americans between the 2013 and 2020 seasons that were also in the 2010-2018 recruiting classes.

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13.36% of 5* recruits became a consensus All-American
2.4% of 4* recruits became a consensus All-American
.43% of 3* recruits became a consensus All-American

You're right that no recruit's future has been written yet. There are always exceptions to any rule and evaluations are of the utmost importance. But there's a reason every championship-contending coach, including ours, fights like **** to accumulate as much premier talent as humanly possible. When you think you have a stacked position group, land more 5* and high 4* level recruits to compete with them and let the cream rise to the top.

If the star labels really don't mean s***, then why do the same programs that land the best classes every year repeatedly end up in the CFB playoff and dominate the national title scene?
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You're percentages don't make sense and are skewed for the very reason you say you need to use them.

There are 32 5-star players every year. The 5-star is to represent the players projected to be 1st round draft picks. These are supposed to be the "can't miss" guys. The fact that there's only a handful of the players that are designated as the best, they're going to have a much higher percentage because there are fewer of them. You used statistics to fit your desired outcome.

A better and more valuable metric is to just look at All-Americans over a span of time. Since 2010, there were 4 5-star QB All-Americans over a 12 year period.

2010 - Cam Newton
2013 - Jameis Winston
2018 - Tua Tagovailoa
2021 - Bryce Young

So, over the past 12 years, there was a 33% chance that a 5-star QB would be an All-American. Another way to look at is a 67% chance an All-American QB won't be a 5-star.

Again, the 5-star is the player projected to be a 1st round draft pick. Given there are 2-3 5-star QBs every year, there should be a much higher percentage of AAs because these are the guys that are supposed to be the cream of the crop.

What is shows is that ratings are not an exact science. If you were betting each year that a 5-star QB would be an All-American, you'd lose your shirt.

More often than not, the recruiting services get it wrong when it comes to 5-star QBs.
 
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Number1CanesFan said:
You're percentages don't make sense and is skewed for the cery reason you say you need to use them.

There are 32 5-star players every year. The 5-star is to reprint the guys projected to be 1st round draft picks. These are supposed to be the "can't miss" guys. The fact that there's only a handful of the guys there support be the best, they're going to have a much higher percentage because there are fewer of them. You used statistics to fit your desired outcome.

A better and more valuable metric is to just look at All-Americans over a span of time. Since 2010, there were 4 5-dtar QB All-Americans over a 12 year period.

2010 - Cam Newton
2013 - Jameis Winston
2018 - Tua Tagovailoa
2021 - Bryce Young

So, over the past 12 years, there was a 33% chance that a 5-star QB would be an All-American. Another way to look at is a 67% chance an All-American QB won't be a 5-star.

Again, the 5-star is the player projected to be a 1st round draft pick. Given there are 2-3 5-star QBs every year, there should be a much hire percentage of AAs because these are the guys that are supposed to be the cream of the crop.

What is shows is that ratings are not an exact science. If you were betting each year that a 5-star QB would be an All-American, you'd lose your shirt.

More often than not, the recruiting services get it wrong when it comes to 5-star QBs.
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The bold part doesn’t check out the way you think it does.
 
GoCanes!! said:
go look at this kids film I posted and tell me you if think this kid is a true 3 star prospect. These kids haven't even played their senior years yet. so your worried about their Jr year ranking? you sound like a kid that lost and took his ball and went home.. Go to bed kid. Summer school comes early
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Not many players are going to see huge jumps in rankings at this point. I watched some of his film a few months ago. Nice. Every year we get all twisted up over our 3 stars thinking “oh this guy is totally not a 3 star.” The truth is there are many, many decent high school players. There is a big difference between decent and great.

In years past it may not have been you, but every year I argue with someone over our class. Unfortunately I’ve been correct since I became a student in 2010. Our classes, with the exception of one or two above average ones recently, are not up to par. The insults from you and the others from the past are always the same. Statistics are on my side. Your eyeball test is on your side, but you haven’t scoured hundreds of QBs game film, watched their camp footage in full, and then ranked them against each other. If you had, you’d have Emory as a nice ole 3 star right now. But your Miami bias is clouding your judgment. This is why we trust the recruiting rankings. Most of us are not watching thousands of players tapes.

Now could one or two of our 3 stars make the jump to 4? Sure. But the overall trend of 3 stars is not a good sign right now. Mario has to turn it around. I still believe he can do it.
 
jhtheking said:
Not many players are going to see huge jumps in rankings at this point. I watched some of his film a few months ago. Nice. Every year we get all twisted up over our 3 stars thinking “oh this guy is totally not a 3 star.” The truth is there are many, many decent high school players. There is a big difference between decent and great.

In years past it may not have been you, but every year I argue with someone over our class. Unfortunately I’ve been correct since I became a student in 2010. Our classes, with the exception of one or two above average ones recently, are not up to par. The insults from you and the others from the past are always the same. Statistics are on my side. Your eyeball test is on your side, but you haven’t scoured hundreds of QBs game film, watched their camp footage in full, and then ranked them against each other. If you had, you’d have Emory as a nice ole 3 star right now. But your Miami bias is clouding your judgment. This is why we trust the recruiting rankings. Most of us are not watching thousands of players tapes.

Now could one or two of our 3 stars make the jump to 4? Sure. But the overall trend of 3 stars is not a good sign right now. Mario has to turn it around. I still believe he can do it.
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LOL so you're already selling out on Mario because your expectations of him signing every 5 star kid in the country to a 7-5 program. Typical Miami fans
 
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GoCanes!! said:
LOL so you're already selling out on Mario because your expectations of him signing every 5 star kid in the country to a 7-5 program. Typical Miami fans
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If you were to ask 10 college football fans what the first thing they think about when it comes to Mario, 9 would probably mention recruiting. He's being paid 8.5M/yr to bring in ELITE classes. Assuming he probably has the most expensive staff in the ACC, then ditto for all the assistants.

Big expectations come with big money. That's how it works with any job in any industry (except scumbag politicians)
 
Jaxson Villain said:
Glad to have Emory on board. I’ll root only for his success as a I do ALL other Canes. My issue was NEVER with Emory as a prospect, my issue is with the overall trend and trajectory the class has been on. Now we have 8 commits and 7 are 3 stars. Good early evals or not, and I understand it’s only June, but it’s not a great sign in my opinion.

Louisville just got Rueben Owens to commit... whether he sticks is another conversation, but I just hope to see some action with some of the 5 star kids were in it with too. That’s all my issue ever was, never with Emory specifically as a player.

I hope to see him leading us to a national championship, as I do TVD, Garcia, Brown, Matocha.. your little brother, **** I hope to see literally anyone lead us to a national championship.
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Et tu Brute?

Come on brother, give it a minute. You’re talking about one of the best closers in football. Just remember the coordinator crisis and how that ended. It’s only a matter of time.
 
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Yall are reaching so far because of this commit. THIS KID IS SOLID lol. Yall get back to me in a couple years because I will be keeping receipts. I'll gladly feed yall crow when this kid balls out this year. Worst fan base in football and it's not even close.
 
GoCanes!! said:
Yall are reaching so far because of this commit. THIS KID IS SOLID lol. Yall get back to me in a couple years because I will be keeping receipts. I'll gladly feed yall crow when this kid balls out this year. Worst fan base in football and it's not even close.
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If this is your take of everything then you just can’t comprehend what we’re talking about. It doesn’t matter if Emory ends up being the best player ever. The issue is us filling a class with 3 stars. One or two of them breaking out means nothing when the rest of them suck. Your receipts mean zero.
 
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grover said:
Now that he's on board, I will admit I want to see him start leading his HS team to victory this year. If they lose, they better lose 40-35 or whatever. His OL on those highlights was terrible. But you can't be a Miami Hurricane QB commit throwing to a UGA (or Cane) WR commit as your #1 go-to and not score lots of points in high school. Repeating an 0-5 outing in league play needs one **** of an explanation.

That said, I honestly like this kid's skills and development. He'll never be dual-threat (whereas TVD has some Rivers in him). And his arm is only plus (roughly Brad Kaaya, maybe a little weaker). But he's got great pocket awareness, seems to process the field quickly which is a huge plus, and is accurate even when the pocket breaks down. The recent video's of his footwork drills show he's really working to improve.

We want to see a big leap like we saw from TVD between his Junior and Senior seasons:
Junior: 7 Wins - 3 Losses | 128/224, 57.1%, 1899, 14 Passing TDs, 5 Ints
Senior: 9 Wins - 0 Losses | 123/200, 61.5%, 2260, 21 Passing TDs, 6 Ints

We also need to remember whoever we take in 2023 QB will almost certainly sit bench for 2 years behind Garcia, and only then will be battling it out with Brown. They've got time to develop.
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i understand your point, but.... some mistakenly thought it was obvious Troy Aikman was trash and would never succeed when the Cowboys, with Future Hall of Famers all over, went 1-15.

sometimes a poor team with a a couple of great players can't do it on their own.
 
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canesmh18 said:
If you were to ask 10 college football fans what the first thing they think about when it comes to Mario, 9 would probably mention recruiting. He's being paid 8.5M/yr to bring in ELITE classes. Assuming he probably has the most expensive staff in the ACC, then ditto for all the assistants.

Big expectations come with big money. That's how it works with any job in any industry (except scumbag politicians)
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So you think if you pay Mario $8M to coach at Wake Forest you get the same class as if you pay Mario $8M to coach at Alabama?

There are 80+ variables besides whether you're a good recruiter or not. By every metric, Mario is slaying it right now. It's really hard to go up against the entrenched, CFP programs with coaching continuity. And he's making moves against them. Look at who we've been beating. Want to see the other side? Look at how FSU and even UF so far, have been struggling.

Rome wasn't built in a day, hombre. Look at how he finished last cycle for us. Look at the visits. Listen to the kids and HS coaches. Read the tea leaves. Be patient. It's going to keep getting better and better. But were not going from 20 years of **** to the very top overnight. It doesn't work that way. Mario has a grind ahead of him. And he's built for it.
 
jhtheking said:
If this is your take of everything then you just can’t comprehend what we’re talking about. It doesn’t matter if Emory ends up being the best player ever. The issue is us filling a class with 3 stars. One or two of them breaking out means nothing when the rest of them suck. Your receipts mean zero.
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Who is "we"? Are you the CIS cult leader? I could argue you about this kid but it's pointless. Most people with sense realize all the 4-5 star premaddonas commit on TV closer the the UA and AA game because they love the attention and we are in the mix on plenty. Cry yourself to sleep and keep thinking this staff is failing in June.
 
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