Dynastic Predictability in CFB

[GojiraCane]

Kind of a side post, but interesting to look back on. Only 17 teams have participated in the national championship game since 1995. More importantly to interest today, only 4 teams have participated in the national championship game over the last five years.

National Championship Game Appearances (Final 2) since 1995 (year of bowl game):

7 Appearances
Alabama (10, 11, 12, 16, 17, 18, 19)
4 Appearances
Clemson (16, 17, 19, 20)
LSU (03, 08, 11, 20)
Oklahoma (00, 04, 05, 09)
Florida State (97, 99, 00, 13)
Florida (96, 97, 06, 08)
Ohio State (02, 07, 08, 15)
3 Appearances
Nebraska (96, 98, 02)
2 Appearances
Miami (01, 02)
USC (04, 06)
Texas (05, 09)
Auburn (10, 14)
Tennessee (98, 99)
Va Tech (00)
Oregon (11, 15)
1 Appearance
Notre Dame (13)
Georgia (18)

Let's look at most dynastic American professional sport, the NBA in comparison. It's almost identical, although over the last five years the NBA can be considered even worse as only three teams have played for the NBA championship.

7 Appearances
Los Angeles Lakers (00, 01, 02, 04, 08, 09, 10)
5 Appearances
Golden State Warriors (15, 16, 17, 18, 19)
Cleveland Cavaliers (07, 15, 16, 17, 18)
Miami Heat (06, 11, 12, 13, 14)
San Antonio Spurs (99, 03, 05, 13, 14)
3 Appearances
Chicago Bulls (96, 97, 98)
2 Appearances
Oklahoma Thunder (96, 11)
Dallas Mavericks (06, 11)
Orlando Magic (95, 09)
Boston Celtics (08, 10)
Detroit Pistons (04, 05)
New Jersey Nets (02, 03)
Utah Jazz: (97, 98)
1 Appearance
Toronto Raptors (19)
Indiana Pacers (00)
Philadelphia 76ers (01)

That said, hypothetically the pool in CFB is far larger than in any of the major sports, so in theory there should be more churn in the championship game. I think it shows however that realistically, the amount of teams that are in theory capable of getting to the national championship tournament is far closer to the number of teams in an NBA or NFL.

 

[Empirical Cane]

...
That said, hypothetically the pool in CFB is far larger than in any of the major sports, so in theory there should be more churn in the championship game. I think it shows however that realistically, the amount of teams that are in theory capable of getting to the national championship tournament is far closer to the number of teams in an NBA or NFL...

I respectfully disagree. Your assertion works with a larger pool and even spread of resources ($, org talent, etc.).

In CFB, the amount of teams far exceed available resources to make said squads competitive. In short, while the names will change slowly over time, without massive rule-structure changes, very few teams will always dominate the rest.

 

[GojiraCane]

I respectfully disagree. Your assertion works with a larger pool and even spread of resources ($, org talent, etc.).

In CFB, the amount of teams far exceed available resources to make said squads competitive. In short, while the names will change slowly over time, without massive rule-structure changes, very few teams will always dominate the rest.

Perhaps I could have worded that better. In saying “in theory” that the amount of teams that can realistically compete is closer to the overall size of the NBA, I’m being generous. In reality it’s around 4-6 teams at maximum that have an honest shot of winning a national championship. And it makes CFB increasingly boring. And unlike in the NBA where fans are in it for individual players as much as teams, with love of the former spanning the country....Clemson and Alabama facing off against each other in perpetuity does nothing positive for college football.

 

[SPAMM]

It is a common phenomenon, "The Rich Get Richer." Just find an earlier discussion of Blue Chip ratio and that explains alot.

 

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