forums

Down 8 go for 2?

Z

ZBHCane

Recruit
Joined
Feb 22, 2017
Messages
105
I know it ended up being the "right call" cause of the freakin missed extra point, but anyone question Manny about that call?? What the **** was that?? I have not seen an answer given.
 
Advertisement
Generally you don't need to chase points until you have to. At that point we didn't technically have to chase the 2 pt conversion but I don't have an issue with it. Hated the playcall though. So unimaginative.
 
mdpcane said:
If not for a super athletic effort by Dallas, the 2 pt try would have failed.. important to keep that in mind.
Click to expand...

It looked like Dallas improvised the play. Osborn had a reaction to the play that suggested something wasn't going the way it was planned.
 
AUcane said:
Generally you don't need to chase points until you have to. At that point we didn't technically have to chase the 2 pt conversion but I don't have an issue with it. Hated the playcall though. So unimaginative.
Click to expand...


Chase points?? Technically?? It made absolutely ZERO sense at the time. None. Im pretty surprised there hasn't been more fallout. I don't care if we got the 2 points it might have been the worst coaching call in the history of football at the time. Didn't even see a reporter ask manny about it at the presser.
 
I get the logic behind it, setting yourself up to win the game if you do make a comeback. Essentially playing to win instead of a potential overtime. Not entirely sure what the percentages say about that move though.
 
There was another thread that explained it. I don't fully understand it but apparently it has to do with win probabilities. I didn't like it personally, but I guess it was a statistical decision. And no, it had nothing to do with not having confidence in Baxa who had made the previous 3 PAT's and was sent out to kick the go ahead PAT.
 
Advertisement
ZBHCane said:
I know it ended up being the "right call" cause of the freakin missed extra point, but anyone question Manny about that call?? What the **** was that?? I have not seen an answer given.
Click to expand...

answer has been given in the 2-3 threads on it. it was absolutely the right call bc of the very fact that Baxa sucks. manny would have to go for 2 regardless on the two tds. he made the right call and it worked. even if it didnt, you still have to go for two again. w our kicker, you need to go for 2 at least once to make up for the kicker blowing his chunks mid kick
 
JimmyJohnsonsHair said:
There was another thread that explained it. I don't fully understand it but apparently it has to do with win probabilities. I didn't like it personally, but I guess it was a statistical decision. And no, it had nothing to do with not having confidence in Baxa who had made the previous 3 PAT's and was sent out to kick the go ahead PAT.
Click to expand...

only reason he was sent out was bc we hit the first 2 point conversion to put us in that position. at the very worst, youre tied.
 
MIATL said:
It looked like Dallas improvised the play. Osborn had a reaction to the play that suggested something wasn't going the way it was planned.
Click to expand...

it looked like it was going to be a pass play from what i saw and dallas said **** it
 
The numbers say it's the right move. You see it from time to time now, but in 5-10 years, every team will be doing it. The logic is as follows:

-2-pt conversions succeed 50% of the time. PATs are basically 100% (except for Bubba)
-Let's say you go for 2 after the first TD, and let's assume you hold the opponent scoreless the rest of the game
-You succeed 50% of the time on that first attempt. After you score your second TD, you kick a PAT and win. So, 50% of the time, you win the game.
-You fail 50% of the time on that first attempt. However, you succeed 50% of the time on that second attempt. So, 25% of the time (50% x 50%) you tie and go to OT, and the remaining 25% of the time you lose.
-OT is basically 50-50 since the format is so wacky and each team only gets 1 possession. So now, 12.5% of the time you win (50% x 25%) and 12.5% of the time you lose.

To recap:
-When you go for 2 on the first (and potentially second) attempt, you win 62.5% : 50% when you succeed on the first 2 pt attempt + 12.5% (50% x 25%) when you fail on the first attempt, succeed on the second, and go to OT
-When you kick the PAT, you win 50%: you go to OT 100% of the time, and win half the time
-You win 12.5% (or 1 out of 8 times) more when you go for 2 than when you kick the PAT

Throw in our terrible PAT kicking, and it was no doubt the right move.
 
Its an analytics thing. Like going for it on 4th and short like a ton of teams do nowadays instead of punting. I freaked out at the time and the playcall was sh*t but I understand why they did it.
 
Advertisement
ZBHCane said:
Chase points?? Technically?? It made absolutely ZERO sense at the time. None. Im pretty surprised there hasn't been more fallout. I don't care if we got the 2 points it might have been the worst coaching call in the history of football at the time. Didn't even see a reporter ask manny about it at the presser.
Click to expand...

You'll notice more coaches doing this in the near future. It's the smarter call. You give yourself an opportunity to analyze the entire situation earlier. If you get the two there, you can go ahead with an XP. If you don't get it, you get a second chance to tie the game after a second score.

You avoid putting yourself in the situation where you score a second TD with (let's just say) less than a minute to go.. needing a 2 to win, down 1.. or missing the XP (which we did) down by 1 and then you HAVE TO get the onside kick to have a chance.

You're giving yourself more options by going for 2 there. Analytics will start pointing coaches towards this decision more and more. It's the right play.. 2 chances to make 1.
 
I’m not entirely familiar with the concept, buit I have seen for years writers saying the math works out that way.

2PT conversions are a 50/50 preposition, so you should get at least one time. If you succeed on the first try you only need a TD and PAT to win and if you don’t you still have a second crack at it if you manage to score again.

The playcall was brutal tho, Wildcat in a condensed space is a tough call imo, we got lucky that time.
 
hoops156 said:
only reason he was sent out was bc we hit the first 2 point conversion to put us in that position. at the very worst, youre tied.
Click to expand...
Of course. You're not going for 2 when you only need 1 to take the lead unless you don't think your kicker can make the extra point. They clearly thought he could. That supports the premise that the decision to go for 2 when they were down 8 had nothing to do with "confidence in Baxa". It was a statistical decision.
 
Back
Top