Do Star matter?

Hurricane Warrior

Retired staff
Mar 14, 2013
Here are my findings based on 247 composite rankings for High School players from 2011-2016:


Conclusion: Stars do matter!!!

Although different recruiting services like some guys more than others, looking at the composite ranking gives us a pretty good idea of how a player will turn out in college. Of course injuries, coaching and of field issues derail many players and some develop later than others, but in general if you recruit a higher ranked player, the chances of success are much higher. I'm not saying a 4 star player is the better take every time but the chances of getting a potential starter pretty much doubles for every star given. So if you recruit a class full of 4-5 stars then you have a bunch of starting caliber players competing for starting job. The backups should be good enough to start at most schools providing solid depth.

Based on Al Golden's classes, 5 stars will most like be starters in college and go on to the NFL. 4 stars will have a 50% chance of being a starter in their college career and 82% chance of making it through all 4-5 years at the U. One out 4 three star recruits will end up starting in their college career. Almost 2 out 3 players ranked outside of the top 1000 will not graduate or play any meaningful downs at the U.

Players Drafted: 7 players have been drafted from these classes so far, the lowest ranked player out of high school? #403 Phillip Dorsett. Njoku will change that this year but he is a rare find.

Free Agents in the NFL: 10 undrafted players are in the NFL from these classes so far. 4 were JC transfers and 1 came from prep school. Of the five out of high school only 2 were ranked outside of the top 450, Armbrister & Scott were both from the class of 2011 and did not receive a composite ranking at the time meaning they were most likely not evaluated by most recruiting services.
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Plenty of 3 stars who play better comp and have more offers than a good amount of 4 stars
Stars do matter, but if you don't have the coaching to go along with it then it won't matter.
Stars matter.

Not as much as some think and not as little as others think, but they matter.
Anyone who seriously looks at the statistics - like you just have - has to conclude that stars matter. I have posted different studies in the past.

Literally no statistical look at the success rate of higher rated players has ever shown that stars do not matter. Of course anyone can post anecdotal evidence but it is just that - anecdotal. Which means it can not be taken seriously in a broader sense.
F*ck the stars if their a great football player. Lets get some tough dudes with chips on their shoulder (Wilder,Bandy) to maul these divas on Saturdays

The staring system seems very biased and flawed also. Wtf is the difference between a high 3* & a 4*?!?! If the coach at your presepctive school knows you can play stars are irrlevant. We have jennings & wilder as 3 stars this cycle both are both criminally underrated.

Does this stop Coach Diaz from persuing them because some smuck that never strapped a helmet on is grading them as lower stars? No beacuase stars dont matter if you can play Ex: Mike Pinckney (3 star)

People care more about a star rating then the kids actual skill set

Go Canes
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Yes stars matter


It's no coincidence that Alabama's class has 21 kids who are 4/5 stars, while we have 6 kids of that caliber committed

Schools who sign the most players with the most stars are the ones who win championships
Look at the schools that have won the coaRstal and went to the ACC CG since Miami joined...they all must have recruited better than Miami and had higher rated classes.
Of course Yes! If you can make every class full of 4-5 stars like bama, OSU, Clemson, FSU etc. You'll be champion contender every year.
Look at the schools that have won the coaRstal and went to the ACC CG since Miami joined...they all must have recruited better than Miami and had higher rated classes.

Miami recruits well enough to win the Coastal, but it doesn't help that we have to play an FSU team every year that is more talented than we are, while Duke, VA Tech, and UNC have Boston College and Wake Forest as their cross divisional matchup
It's not rocket science, which is why I'm surprised this point is even debated anymore. The team with the best players usually wins and the team with the best players is almost always that team that recruits better.