We're first in the country in limiting negative run plays (3.8%) and North Carolina ranks 112th in yards after contact allowed. That’s the kind of stat David Lake of 247Sports digs up every Thursday on our show, and he broke down why the stats should calm the nerves of some Cane fans.
Here's some of the highlights from Thursday's show:
Here's some of the highlights from Thursday's show:
Run the Ball
- UNC opponents average around 39 carries a game. Coordinators looked at the tape, saw a defense that can't consistently stop the run, and went at it. We will too.
- We're ninth in FBS at 3.94 yards after contact per rush. UNC ranks 112th, allowing 3.52. We break tackles better than almost anybody, and they miss them more than almost anybody.
- We lose yardage on just 3.8 percent of true rushes, the best number in the country. People complain about the rugby piles and the tight splits. Louisville has the home-run backs and is among the worst in the nation in negative runs. I'll take staying on schedule every single week, especially against a team that wants to shorten the game.
- Xavier Lewis is a disruptive interior guy and Derek McDonald is a solid linebacker. But UNC's linebackers as a group sit in the bottom 15th percentile in stop rate. Win the first level and there's room behind it.
The two-back punch
- Mark Fletcher Jr. is in the 97th percentile in tackle avoidance. Once a defender gets a hand on him, the play is still going.
- Javian Mallory is in the 97th percentile in yards per carry among backs with 50-plus carries. His vision and jump cuts turn the same call into a different play.
- Lake has Fletcher as RB1, and he's the heartbeat of this team. But the carries are going to be close to even, so call it 1A and 1B. This is one of the most physical offenses in the nation, and those two are a big reason why.
Edge runs
- We've only called 96 edge carries, 89th nationally, but on those carries we average 6.0 yards per carry (22nd) and 4.46 yards after contact (6th).
- Eleven of our 20 rushing touchdowns have come on edge runs.
- UNC allows 4.9 yards per carry on edge runs (83rd), rank 114th in success rate against them, and miss 26 percent of their tackles on the perimeter (99th).
Our pass rush vs. their offensive line
- UNC allows pressure on 38 percent of dropbacks, we generate pressure on 36 percent of snaps.
- Marquise Lightfoot has five sacks, 24 pressures and a 17.2 percent pressure rate. Damon Wilson II has 26 pressures, 3.5 sacks and a 30.9 percent win rate. JJ Dunnigan has generated a pressure on all seven of his team blitzes from the secondary.
Billy Edwards under pressure
- With a clean pocket, Edwards averages 8.9 yards per attempt (31st nationally) and ranks 36th in EPA per play. That's an above-average college quarterback.
- When pressured, he falls apart. His yards per attempt drops to 4.9 and when he's blitzed he only completes 46.8 percent of his passes, 111th out of 118 qualified quarterbacks.
Fourth-down aggressiveness
- UNC has only gone for it nine times this year (106th in the country), converting six. But to pull an upset like this, Bill Belichick has to steal possessions. Expect more fourth-down attempts, maybe a fake, something on special teams, and a game plan built around keeping the possession count low. Georgia Tech threaded that needle against us in 2024. That's the blueprint: hold the ball, win a turnover, convert the downs you're not supposed to go for.
, if we had a win against Tenn or ufag instead no one would question our schedule (wake is ranked ahead of both)... I mean 3 loss South Carolina is getting poll votes because they beat them even though their qb can barely complete a forward pass.
