Don’t shoot the messenger here; I hate the ACC as much as anyone. Right now, it’s the *** crack of college football.
But could it eventually become a legitimate conference?
Miami: We will be a perennial top-five team and win championships. Having a national powerhouse at the top immediately makes the entire conference more relevant. Ranked ACC opponents get more attention, conference games carry more weight, and the league finally has a legitimate national centerpiece.
Notre Dame: If it ever joined—obviously unlikely—it would completely transform the ACC. Miami and Notre Dame competing for championships would give the conference two massive national brands at the top. Even if it never joins, we should play Notre Dame every year.
Virginia Tech: Franklin is a proven coach, and I fully expect Virginia Tech to become a consistent top-15 program. A night game in Blacksburg in November 2028 will probably make me more nervous than most SEC matchups.
The rest:
- Cal is investing and appears to have found its coach. I could see it becoming a regular top-25 team.
- Clemson could return to the top 15 or 20 if Dabo finally embraces the portal and NIL. If he doesn’t, he may be gone.
- FSU will likely fire Norvell and make a serious financial push to rebuild. As much as I hate them, the brand and potential are still there.
- SMU and Louisville should remain consistent top-25 programs under their current coaches.
- One or two teams from the UNC, UVA, Georgia Tech, Pitt, Syracuse, NC State and Boston College group will usually be solid.
If this happens, the ACC could regularly have a top-five Miami, a top-15 Virginia Tech and several other ranked teams. That’s suddenly a respectable conference.
And if Notre Dame somehow joined? An ACC led by perennial top-five Miami and Notre Dame teams, with Virginia Tech in the top 15 and several other ranked programs, would be a
**** solid conference.
Am I being too optimistic, or can you guys see it happening?
Look, I'd love to believe in Santa Claus and the Easter Bunny too, but your dream ACC scenario isn't happening. For a few reasons.
First, you put too much emphasis (and likelihood) on MULTIPLE ACC teams "turning things around" in football by "investing" and "hiring the right coach". As if the Big 10 schools and SEC schools aren't trying to do the exact same thing, but with much more revenue. Your five bullet points are predicated upon:
-VaTech getting better
-Cal getting better
-Clemson getting better
-FSU getting better
-SMU and Louisville maintaining roughly a Top 25 presence
-And then other teams being decent (it's funny that you barely mentioned UVa and DID NOT mention Duke, the two teams in the ACC-CG last year)
And the reality is that the ACC is not going to maintain seven (or eight, if ND were to join) consistent Top 25 teams. It's just not going to happen. Getting one-third of the Top 25 is something that the Big 10 and SEC can do, as they have a lot more revenue to pay coaches and players and maintain top facilities. ****, FSU, a multiple-national-champ standard bearer for the ACC, is trying to cobble enough money together to FIRE a coach, let alone hire a great replacement.
And the second major issue is that you've completely overlooked what is needed today. Not "7 or 8 Top 25 teams". ****, the Big 12 came close to that a few times last year. No, here is what is going to be needed in the future:
-A solid TV broadcast network partner that pays A LOT OF MONEY, comparable to the Big 10/SEC money
-A dedicated cable channel
-A reliable streaming partner
-A compelling footprint with solid member schools that deliver their markets reliably, and that appeal to a nationwide audience
Simply stated, we are a second-class citizen when it comes to the TV broadcast network partner, and we certainly don't get the same money. We have a dedicated cable channel that doesn't pay nearly as well as the Big 10 Network, and is lesser than the SEC network. The streaming partner is yet to be determined, but I suspect the two best deals will go to the Big 10 and SEC. And our footprint is "largely southeastern, but not as good as the SEC" and/or "large, but not as large and western as the Big 10".
So then let's look at the biggest population markets:
1. California - Big 10
2. Texas - SEC
3. Florida - split between the SEC and ACC, but all the SEC has to do is invite FSU and/or Miami
4. New York - do we really believe that Syracuse delivers New York? They barely watch college football
5. Pennsylvania - Big 10
6. Illinois - Big 10
7. Ohio - Big 10
8. Georgia - SEC, come on now
9. North Carolina - ACC, until the SEC takes UNC
10. Michigan - Big 10
11. New Jersey - Big 10
12. Virginia - ACC, until the SEC takes UVa and/or VaTech
13. Washington - Big 10
14. Arizona - Big 12
15. Tennessee - SEC
16. Massachusetts - same as NY above, do we really think that BC delivers Massachusetts?
17. Indiana - Big 10
18. Missouri - SEC
19. Maryland - Big 10
20. Colorado - Big 12
21. Wisconsin - Big 10
22. Minnesota - Big 10
23. South Carolina - ACC and SEC, which would change if the SEC takes Clemson
24. Alabama - SEC
25. Louisiana - SEC
So there are the 25 biggest states. And those 25 states represent EIGHT-FOUR PERCENT of the US population.
And what does the ACC have?
-Half of Florida, for now
-New York and Massachusetts, for what they are worth
-North Carolina, commandingly, which will change when the SEC takes UNC
-Virginia, for now
-Half of South Carolina, for now
So, yeah, it's not exactly a position of power. It's not great for the TV markets, and it certainly hasn't delivered us a lot of money from ABC/ESPN.
And while I'd love to go back 30 or 40 years in a time machine when "Top 25 rankings" drove the conversation on "who the best schools/conferences" were, the reality is very different today.
Sure, "Notre Dame" could help to drive things in the right direction. Which is exactly why ND is NOT going to join the ACC. If ND joins a conference, it will be the Big 10.
Meanwhile, the Big 10 and SEC are rapidly approaching the point where their media rights payouts will DOUBLE the media rights payouts of the ACC. You simply can't compete when that many schools are making double what we make.