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MEGA Conference Realignment and lawsuits Megathread: Stories, Tales, Lies, and Exaggerations

grover said:
I'm bored with no real Canes news going on, so I'll throw it out there.

If I'm the BiG, I take Miami and Ga Tech before UNC or the other names being tossed around. If the Domers wanted in on equal terms, sure, but that's never going to happen. They want to stay independent or get special treatment.

Miami and GT are in the two best media markets in the South East, they're quality research institutes, they are committed to high level sports. Miami is a no brainer, best brand not in the P2, better brand than any but the Top 3-5 of the P2. GT needs more work, but a conditional BiG invite would draw out their alumni. They'd throw $$$ at the opportunity.

A dark horse for me would be SMU. Those big finance and big oil boys would come flying in to support that move. They could be a real brand with the right marketing effort. And Dallas trumps Austin or Norman.
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Well - there is one group that does a weekly podcast - and they do have some legit B10 president contacts. Their comments Friday night were “ Miami is in a really good spot and then the B10 will be deciding between Virginia and Duke. If the next move is capped at 20 for the time being it would be Miami and either Virginia orvDuke”.
 
grover said:
Miami and GT are in the two best media markets in the South East, they're quality research institutes, they are committed to high level sports.
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Check out what ESPN's Pete Thamel said back in 2023:

"I would think the SEC would be happy to sit at 16 for a while because they really like their footprint," Thamel said. "There's enough intimacy. They have a region right now. The only thing that disrupts that is if they have to play defense because they don't want the Big Ten to come into their region."

Miami and Georgia Tech ending up in the B1G would be diametrically opposed to Sankey/ESPN prioritizing protecting the SEC's footprint.

If/when the SEC adds UM, GT, FSU, Clemson, UNC, NCSU, Duke, UVA and VT, everything else in ACC is either outside the SEC's preferred region or not P2 caliber.

Why leave any meat on the bone when a conference as large as 25 schools can operate just fine?

grover said:
A dark horse for me would be SMU. Those big finance and big oil boys would come flying in to support that move. They could be a real brand with the right marketing effort. And Dallas trumps Austin or Norman.
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SMU is an afterthought in Texas. Their fanbase is miniscule compared to Texas Tech much less UT or A&M. Even the Sooners in DFW and LSU in H-town are much bigger presences than a rich kids' private school. Plus, the last thing presidents in the SEC and B1G want is fat cat boosters getting a seat at the table and start trying to run things, e.g. Cody Campbell

To get a spot in the SEC or B1G going forward, a school will have to fall in one of three categories:

1) State flagship university (and/or co-flagship in a heavily populated state): FSU (SEC), Clemson (SEC), UNC (SEC), NCSU (SEC), UVA (SEC), VT (SEC), WVU (SEC), Cal (B1G)
2) Elite academics and/or key media market and/or nationally recognized brand in athletics: Miami (SEC), ND (B1G), GT (SEC), Duke (SEC), Kansas (B1G), Colorado (B1G), Arizona State (B1G), Stanford (B1G).

That's it, imo, for schools that could land in the P2

I don't think there are any others that meet enough of the criteria above to move up
 
I think we will have one more smaller expansion before a long term plan takes shape.

B1G - Miami and Duke
SEC - Some combination of UNC, UVA, Clemson and FSU. Maybe UNC and UVA are the preferred top tier targets, but not sure those schools will go without assurances of NCSt (really NCSt is UNC problem, but I think UVA is the tag team partner needed for them to go). If SEC wont take NCState, they will likely move to FSU and Clemson.

That all said, IMO, 20 team conferences would be the perfect amount. You could have two divisions of 10 and play 9 conference games against the rest of your division. Then conference championship weekend, have everyone matchup with the team in the other division. Top 1,2 matchups would be playing for playoff seeding and the winner of 3v3 would get the last “automatic” bid for the conference, which will give 3 prime games on championship weekend.
 
grover said:
I'm bored with no real Canes news going on, so I'll throw it out there.

If I'm the BiG, I take Miami and Ga Tech before UNC or the other names being tossed around. If the Domers wanted in on equal terms, sure, but that's never going to happen. They want to stay independent or get special treatment.

Miami and GT are in the two best media markets in the South East, they're quality research institutes, they are committed to high level sports. Miami is a no brainer, best brand not in the P2, better brand than any but the Top 3-5 of the P2. GT needs more work, but a conditional BiG invite would draw out their alumni. They'd throw $$$ at the opportunity.

A dark horse for me would be SMU. Those big finance and big oil boys would come flying in to support that move. They could be a real brand with the right marketing effort. And Dallas trumps Austin or Norman.
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A lot of Georgia Tech alumni aren’t going to throw money in for football. They don’t care about football or even sports
 
rascon said:
I think we will have one more smaller expansion before a long term plan takes shape.

B1G - Miami and Duke
SEC - Some combination of UNC, UVA, Clemson and FSU. Maybe UNC and UVA are the preferred top tier targets, but not sure those schools will go without assurances of NCSt (really NCSt is UNC problem, but I think UVA is the tag team partner needed for them to go). If SEC wont take NCState, they will likely move to FSU and Clemson.

That all said, IMO, 20 team conferences would be the perfect amount. You could have two divisions of 10 and play 9 conference games against the rest of your division. Then conference championship weekend, have everyone matchup with the team in the other division. Top 1,2 matchups would be playing for playoff seeding and the winner of 3v3 would get the last “automatic” bid for the conference, which will give 3 prime games on championship weekend.
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I don’t think it would work that way in the big ten even if logical. They went away from similar because they want their teams to all eventually rotate and play everyone. 4 5 team Divisions perhaps.
 
Hold My Beer said:
SMU is an afterthought in Texas. Their fanbase is miniscule compared to Texas Tech much less UT or A&M. Even the Sooners in DFW and LSU in H-town are much bigger presences than a rich kids' private school. Plus, the last thing presidents in the SEC and B1G want is fat cat boosters getting a seat at the table and start trying to run things, e.g. Cody Campbell
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I said SMU was a dark horse for a reason. But Miami and USC were rich kids' private schools until they grew into real academic powerhouses in their own right. SMU in 10 years with the right leadership is Miami and USC today.

Every one of the schools in the BiG and SEC have fat cat boosters involved in their football program.

Hold My Beer said:
2) Elite academics and/or key media market and/or nationally recognized brand in athletics: Miami (SEC), ND (B1G), GT (SEC),
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Why the fascination with the SEC? Those racist rednecks can have their little regional conference. They had their 20 years of fame and now that the deck is no longer stacked in their favor through corruption, they are back to being backwater. We're a national brand. BiG is the only place for us.
 
Ispyin said:
I don’t think it would work that way in the big ten even if logical. They went away from similar because they want their teams to all eventually rotate and play everyone. 4 5 team Divisions perhaps.
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They could still rotate their members every few years. They could even do a drawing for divisions, lol.

The overarching point is with 9 conference games plus a 10th championship weekend, they could essentially block out the other P4/G6 conferences.
 
Hold My Beer said:
Flugauer's expansion tiers from today's show:

SEC
1. UNC, UVA
2. Clemson, FSU
3. Miami, NC State, VA Tech
4. Kansas
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1. UNC-NCSt, UVa-VaTech (because they ARE pairs)
2. Clemson, F$U
3. Miami (because it's not gonna happen)
11. Kansas (wasn't a slave-state, so it's not gonna happen)
 
grover said:
Why the fascination with the SEC? Those racist rednecks can have their little regional conference. They had their 20 years of fame and now that the deck is no longer stacked in their favor through corruption, they are back to being backwater. We're a national brand. BiG is the only place for us.
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1. Miami could dominate the SEC more easily than the B1G. But as importantly, even if sec teams are mediocre , sec still gets like 40% of the playoff field. Even if we don’t win the conference, I think the watered down sec gives us as good a shot of getting into the playoffs each year as staying in a bad ACC and getting in via conference championship wins. Espn still carries a lot of water.

2. Geography. It may not seem like much but all the sports teams having to travel across the country adds up

3. Recruiting footprint. Yes we are recruiting nationally but the fact is our biggest recruiting base is the Southeast. Florida, Georgia, Louisiana especially.

4. Possibility of Full shares- espn does not want Fox sports to get a foothold in the southeast under any circumstances. They have a lock on a massively profitable media market. Regular-season SEC telecasts average ~4.9 million to 5.2 million viewers per game, compared to the Big Ten's ~2.3 million to 2.8 million average. B1g set a precedent with UW and Oregon of partial payouts. I think Miami is in a great position right now, b1g is clearly interested but espn could make it very easy for the sec. It’s basically an internal administrative transfer for espn, with a pro rata increase to the sec for adding UM.

5. Title IX - B1G schools typically have 28-36 sports. Miami has 18. Sec schools are typically lean, with 22 sports. Miami meets the ncaa minimum, but if it joins the b1g there is going to be a lot of pressure to add more a lot more non revenue sports. That’s new facilities, coaching staffs, scholarships, travel,etc. that’s going to make a big dent in the amount of money that actually gets funneled into the football program.

6. Weather. This one is pretty self explanatory.

7. Ref protection- look, I know the sec has a lot of racist fans. But they also inexplicably have loyalty to an entire conference. No one will ever chant ACC ACC ACC. The conference protects its winners. It’s the anti ACC. If the conference think Miami has the best chance of winning a title and dethroning the b1g, we get the Jordan rules. Just look at that Ole Miss - UF game last season for hilariously rigged officiating. It’s obviously debatable but I think Miami would get a more fair shake in the sec than the b1g.

8. All that said, I still like the B1G because I live in the PNW and I’ll be able to see UM when it plays UW and Oregon. I just wanted to highlight why someone would favor the sec.
 
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Handsome Squidbum said:
1. Miami could dominate the SEC more easily than the B1G. But as importantly, even if sec teams are mediocre , sec still gets like 40% of the playoff field. Even if we don’t win the conference, I think the watered down sec gives us as good a shot of getting into the playoffs each year as staying in a bad ACC and getting in via conference championship wins. Espn still carries a lot of water.

2. Geography. It may not seem like much but all the sports teams having to travel across the country adds up

3. Recruiting footprint. Yes we are recruiting nationally but the fact is our biggest recruiting base is the Southeast. Florida, Georgia, Louisiana especially.

4. Possibility of Full shares- espn does not want Fox sports to get a foothold in the southeast under any circumstances. They have a lock on a massively profitable media market. Regular-season SEC telecasts average ~4.9 million to 5.2 million viewers per game, compared to the Big Ten's ~2.3 million to 2.8 million average. B1g set a precedent with UW and Oregon of partial payouts. I think Miami is in a great position right now, b1g is clearly interested but espn could make it very easy for the sec. It’s basically an internal administrative transfer for espn, with a pro rata increase to the sec for adding UM.

5. Title IX - B1G schools typically have 28-36 sports. Miami has 18. Sec schools are typically lean, with 22 sports. Miami meets the ncaa minimum, but if it joins the b1g there is going to be a lot of pressure to add more a lot more non revenue sports. That’s new facilities, coaching staffs, scholarships, travel,etc. that’s going to make a big dent in the amount of money that actually gets funneled into the football program.

6. Weather. This one is pretty self explanatory.

7. Ref protection- look, I know the sec has a lot of racist fans. But they also inexplicably have loyalty to an entire conference. No one will ever chant ACC ACC ACC. The conference protects its winners. It’s the anti ACC. If the conference think Miami has the best chance of winning a title and dethroning the b1g, we get the Jordan rules. Just look at that Ole Miss - UF game last season for hilariously rigged officiating. It’s obviously debatable but I think Miami would get a more fair shake in the sec than the b1g.

8. All that said, I still like the B1G because I live in the PNW and I’ll be able to see UM when it plays UW and Oregon. I just wanted to highlight why someone would favor the sec.
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4 and 5 resonate the most with me. Hopefully BiG doesn’t try to low ball us and the financials are similar. I get the non revenue sports issues but still think it’s worth worth the move to BiG. They’ll fix that eventually I think.
 
As of Tuesday afternoon, from a realignment perspective and pending SEC and Big Ten feedback that they expect to have to give by tomorrow morning at 9 AM, the worst part of the proposed bill exist still with the power for conferences cap at 19 teams and requirement to go, Independent for five years before moving. It’s a huge F. this even stays in the bill or gets passed in the Senate or it gets approved in the house or then doesn’t get changed and reconciliation if it does get approved in the house, but in the off chance it sticks that’s terrible for a lot of schools, including potentially in Miami but really great for the lawyers that will sue right away after it.
 
It would be political suicide for any congressmen from most of the SEC states to vote for anything that limits the SEC's financial power (sans Florida, GA, TX maybe). And probably a handful of B1G states. This is not going to pass with the limitations on SEC and B1G
 
From Ross Dellenger’s article on Yahoo Sports last Wednesday. This paragraph seems worth noting as we potentially move closer to the PCSA act going before Congress.

For instance, an anti-expansion provision remains a fluid subject that, as of the latest discussions, would cap conference membership at 19 schools and require programs moving from one power conference to another to operate as an independent for five years. Such a move may expedite another wave of conference expansion as schools jockey to elevate themselves — such as ACC programs moving to the Big Ten or SEC — before the bill passes.

My two cents is the SEC, B1G and their media partners definitely want further expansion. But they absolutely want to keep their hands clean and avoid a legal mess at the same time. The safest and surest way to ensure as much is for the departing ACC (and Big XII) schools — who no doubt know where they stand as far as P2 opportunities go — make the leap on their own accord.

From Greg Sankey back in 2022 with the Sooners and Longhorns on their way to the SEC but still with two years remaining in the Big XII:

"This (the addition of OU and UT) keeps the SEC in contiguous states, which reflects a reasonable geography and like-minded universities," Sankey said. There's no sense of urgency in our league. No panic in reaction to others' actions. We know who we are.

"We're attentive, we're engaged in conversation," The great news for the Southeastern Conference is people call and say, 'Hey you're doing something special.' They kind of hint around the edges. We'll watch what happens around us. And be thoughtful, but be nimble."

With the restrictions of the PCSA looming as a possibility, are we upon the time to be nimble?
 
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ICANEDOIT said:
Being in the Big 10 is going to suck. Being in the SEC would be much better. Better match-ups, less travel, better sports in general across the board. Just my opinion.
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I'd argue BIG has better sports or at least on par as SEC. Travel wise for the athletes. Not really that big of a deal if flying. An extra hour in the air. For the university (taking equipment) and fans I guess more difficult if driving.
 
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