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MEGA Conference Realignment and lawsuits Megathread: Stories, Tales, Lies, and Exaggerations

Handsome Squidbum said:
My guess is a lot of Big 12 teams. It’s just 6 games. For some G5s it would be huge money.

if the ACC falls apart there will be a bunch of desperate teams who don’t get a P2 invite. Between all the P2 I am sure at least 1 team would also agree to a home and home.

Week 1: Navy (Neutral Site)
Week 2: Ball State (Home)
Week 3: Texas (Home - SEC One-Off / Home-and-Home)
Week 4: at BYU (Away - Big 12)
Week 5: Boston College (Home - Ex-ACC / Independent)
Week 6: West Virginia (Home - Big 12)
Week 7: BYE
Week 8: Air Force (Home - Service Academy)
Week 9: at Utah (Away - Big 12)
Week 10: Stanford (Home - Ex-ACC / Independent)
Week 11: TCU (Home - Big 12)
Week 12: Northern Illinois (Home - MAC)
Week 13: vs. Army (Neutral Site / NYC)

ND could even add a FCS school (mil academy like citadel or a hbcu) since one FCS can count towards playoff qualification.

it would be a pathetically weak schedule but how is that much different than how they currently schedule
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Small point, but N. Illinois is now a member of the Mountain West (football only)

Would not surprise me if BIG 12 takes Louisville, Pitt, Syracuse initially. Sets up nicely for a division also including WVU, and Cincinnati.
ND may indeed get their scheduling from B1G 12 schools and the academies.
 
Some of you really need to brush up on ND and who they associate with. If you think ND, in the event the ACC falls apart, will be scheduling games in stillwater, waco, or lubbock then i cant help you. The snobbiest of brands in CFB is not scheduling games with programs it views as lesser or undesirables. ND won't give up its independence without a fight, see PCSA, but no shot in **** does it replace stanford, cal, miami, clemson, unc, and uva with baylor, iowa st, tcu, osu, and texas tech.
 
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Canesfan1993 said:
Some of you really need to brush up on ND and who they associate with. If you think ND, in the event the ACC falls apart, will be scheduling games in stillwater, waco, or lubbock then i cant help you. The sobbiest of brands in CFB is not scheduling games with programs it views as lesser or undesirables. ND won't give up its independence without a fight, see PCSA, but no shot in **** does it replace stanford, cal, miami, clemson, unc, and uva with baylor, iowa st, tcu, osu, and texas tech.
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1. The "Too Snobby for Lower Tiers" narrative is objectively false.

If ND refused to schedule teams they view as "lesser," explain why they regularly host regional MAC programs like Northern Illinois, Central Michigan, Bowling Green, and Ball State. Better yet, explain FCS Tennessee State in 2023. Jack Swarbrick went on record stating ND actively wants to host HBCUs to provide national exposure and showcase the HBCUs history (and NBC featured Tennessee State's famous marching band during halftime). If ND is willing to host an FCS HBCU and MAC teams in South Bend, the idea that they'd turn their nose up at premier Big 12 programs or regional G5s doesn't hold water.

2. The 6-Game Anchor is Already Built.

If the ACC falls apart, ND already has a stable core that doesn't rely on the Big Ten or SEC bending over backwards:
  • USC (Protected national rivalry; both athletic departments prioritize it)
  • Purdue (Historic in-state trophy series with proven multi-year scheduling agreements)
  • Navy (Annual contractual fixture)
  • Army (Frequent marquee neutral-site partner)
  • Air Force (Regular service academy rotation)
  • HBCU / FCS showcase (Tennessee State established the precedent)
That locks in 6 games. ND only needs to find 6 more dance partners.

3. BYU and Utah are major brands, not charity cases.
  • BYU: ND and BYU played repeatedly throughout BYU’s independent era (including South Bend and Allegiant Stadium). BYU is a massive national private-school brand that delivers huge ratings for NBC. ND doesn't view BYU as "beneath" them; they view them as a natural institutional peer (another religion-focused school).
  • Utah: Utah is a tier-one AAU research institution with two Pac-12 titles in recent memory and a pretty good program under Kyle Whittingham. ND has scheduled Utah before and would gladly sign a home-and-home.
4. The Leftover ACC Brands Will Be Desperate.
If the ACC collapses and the P2 shuts its doors, where do you think programs like Stanford, Boston College, Syracuse, and Pitt go? They will be fighting for national TV relevance and would jump at the chance to keep ND on their schedule. ND already has deep historical ties to BC (the Catholic rivalry / Ireland Trophy) and Stanford (Legends Trophy).



The Math:

  1. USC
  2. Purdue
  3. Navy
  4. Army
  5. Air Force
  6. HBCU / FCS showcase
  7. Regional MAC guarantee (Ball State / NIU)
  8. BYU
  9. Utah
  10. Stanford (Ex-ACC / Independent)
  11. Boston College (Ex-ACC / Independent)
  12. TCU / West Virginia / Big 12 showcase
That’s a complete 12-game slate. Even if you consider that 12th Big 12 slot as traveling to a less traditional destination, taking one road trip to Fort Worth or Morgantown to preserve complete football independence is a trade-off South Bend makes in a heartbeat. It satisfies NBC, preserves their recruiting footprint in California, Texas, and the Northeast, maintains a CFP-worthy strength of schedule, and requires zero begging to the Big Ten or SEC.

One other thing you are forgetting:

Believing that ND is just going to roll over and join the Big Ten out of desperation ignores 100 years of program history. The only reason ND became a national independent brand in the first place is because the Big Ten blackballed a Catholic school and tried to boycott them out of existence. It still irks them. I don't think ND will easily surrender its independence to the B1G unless literally every other scheduling door is slammed shut.
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Handsome Squidbum said:
1. The "Too Snobby for Lower Tiers" narrative is objectively false.

If ND refused to schedule teams they view as "lesser," explain why they regularly host regional MAC programs like Northern Illinois, Central Michigan, Bowling Green, and Ball State. Better yet, explain FCS Tennessee State in 2023. Jack Swarbrick went on record stating ND actively wants to host HBCUs to provide national exposure and showcase the HBCUs history (and NBC featured Tennessee State's famous marching band during halftime). If ND is willing to host an FCS HBCU and MAC teams in South Bend, the idea that they'd turn their nose up at premier Big 12 programs or regional G5s doesn't hold water.

2. The 6-Game Anchor is Already Built.

If the ACC falls apart, ND already has a stable core that doesn't rely on the Big Ten or SEC bending over backwards:
  • USC (Protected national rivalry; both athletic departments prioritize it)
  • Purdue (Historic in-state trophy series with proven multi-year scheduling agreements)
  • Navy (Annual contractual fixture)
  • Army (Frequent marquee neutral-site partner)
  • Air Force (Regular service academy rotation)
  • HBCU / FCS showcase (Tennessee State established the precedent)
That locks in 6 games. ND only needs to find 6 more dance partners.

3. BYU and Utah are major brands, not charity cases.
  • BYU: ND and BYU played repeatedly throughout BYU’s independent era (including South Bend and Allegiant Stadium). BYU is a massive national private-school brand that delivers huge ratings for NBC. ND doesn't view BYU as "beneath" them; they view them as a natural institutional peer (another religion-focused school).
  • Utah: Utah is a tier-one AAU research institution with two Pac-12 titles in recent memory and a pretty good program under Kyle Whittingham. ND has scheduled Utah before and would gladly sign a home-and-home.
4. The Leftover ACC Brands Will Be Desperate.
If the ACC collapses and the P2 shuts its doors, where do you think programs like Stanford, Boston College, Syracuse, and Pitt go? They will be fighting for national TV relevance and would jump at the chance to keep ND on their schedule. ND already has deep historical ties to BC (the Catholic rivalry / Ireland Trophy) and Stanford (Legends Trophy).



The Math:

  1. USC
  2. Purdue
  3. Navy
  4. Army
  5. Air Force
  6. HBCU / FCS showcase
  7. Regional MAC guarantee (Ball State / NIU)
  8. BYU
  9. Utah
  10. Stanford (Ex-ACC / Independent)
  11. Boston College (Ex-ACC / Independent)
  12. TCU / West Virginia / Big 12 showcase
That’s a complete 12-game slate. Even if you consider that 12th Big 12 slot as traveling to a less traditional destination, taking one road trip to Fort Worth or Morgantown to preserve complete football independence is a trade-off South Bend makes in a heartbeat. It satisfies NBC, preserves their recruiting footprint in California, Texas, and the Northeast, maintains a CFP-worthy strength of schedule, and requires zero begging to the Big Ten or SEC.

One other thing you are forgetting:

Believing that ND is just going to roll over and join the Big Ten out of desperation ignores 100 years of program history. The only reason ND became a national independent brand in the first place is because the Big Ten blackballed a Catholic school and tried to boycott them out of existence. It still irks them. I don't think ND will easily surrender its independence to the B1G unless literally every other scheduling door is slammed shut.
​
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First of all, a regional game vs a lesser MAC opponent in South Bend vs the irish going to a big 12 site are not the same thing. Unless you're suggesting all these big12 programs are lining up to give ND exclusively home games or 2 for 1s in the next decade...

Secondly, ND vs USC will not play again till 2030 in a game you claim is "protected" and "prioritized". And even then its a 4 game agreement with opt outs by both sides.

The question is not, and has never been, can ND build a 12 game schedule. Of course they could play syracuse, BC, the military academies, BYU, Utah, and other big12/mac schools. The question is can they maintain a 12 team schedule of what they would consider comparable programs vs their peers. And the big 10 already requires their schools to play 9 conference games with a move to 10 on the horizon once the new CFP format is finalized along with the next expansion. ND is running out of options, especially in their sports outside football, and thats one of the big reasons why they profusely advocate for the PCSA. ND wants the status quo to maintain their position as a powerbroker in the current system. Their leverage evaporates the moment the tentpole brands from the acc make their move.
 
Canesfan1993 said:
First of all, a regional game vs a lesser MAC opponent in South Bend vs the irish going to a big 12 site are not the same thing. Unless you're suggesting all these big12 programs are lining up to give ND exclusively home games or 2 for 1s in the next decade...

Secondly, ND vs USC will not play again till 2030 in a game you claim is "protected" and "prioritized". And even then its a 4 game agreement with opt outs by both sides.

The question is not, and has never been, can ND build a 12 game schedule. Of course they could play syracuse, BC, the military academies, BYU, Utah, and other big12/mac schools. The question is can they maintain a 12 team schedule of what they would consider comparable programs vs their peers. And the big 10 already requires their schools to play 9 conference games with a move to 10 on the horizon once the new CFP format is finalized along with the next expansion. ND is running out of options, especially in their sports outside football, and thats one of the big reasons why they profusely advocate for the PCSA. ND wants the status quo to maintain their position as a powerbroker in the current system. Their leverage evaporates the moment the tentpole brands from the acc make their move.
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Straight facts.

Notre Dame will pick its poison: (A) join the Big 10, or (B) load up against either the Big 12 or the revised ACC.

I'm betting they will choose A.
 
Even as we look for which teams on the outside get into the P2, any thoughts on current P2 minnows that don't pull their weight, getting booted out??
 
TheOriginalCane said:
Not happening.
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You see uneven revenue sharing then? S
I'm assuming something has to give.. You can't have Northwestern and illinois and Maryland and Vanderbilt pulling the same media $$$ as Ohio State and Texas forever. At some point the schools or the media companies are going to force a change.
 
Yoyo423 said:
You see uneven revenue sharing then? S
I'm assuming something has to give.. You can't have Northwestern and illinois and Maryland and Vanderbilt pulling the same media $$$ as Ohio State and Texas forever. At some point the schools or the media companies are going to force a change.
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already being discussed in the big10. what form that takes is not finalized. But those conversations are being had. Also not every conference is the same and i think the noise about northwestern and illinois revenue share is much higher outside big ten circles then within. Lot of ****ed off fan bases whose conference leadership screwed them over and who think they are entitled to more than another school. The Jaguars and titans dont pull in less national media revenue than the cowboys and packers.
 
TheOriginalCane said:
Straight facts.

Notre Dame will pick its poison: (A) join the Big 10, or (B) load up against either the Big 12 or the revised ACC.

I'm betting they will choose A.
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I'll bet on B. Notre Dame will partner with the Big 12, service academies, and orphaned ACC schools before surrendering its standalone tv deal. They will only join a conference if the P2 completely locks them out of the College Football Playoff.

If kalshi/polymarket posts odds that ND will remain independent I'll put some $$$ on it.
 
Yoyo423 said:
You see uneven revenue sharing then? S
I'm assuming something has to give.. You can't have Northwestern and illinois and Maryland and Vanderbilt pulling the same media $$$ as Ohio State and Texas forever. At some point the schools or the media companies are going to force a change.
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Uhhhh, yeah, NO.

Northwestern and Illinois and Vanderbilt are charter members of their conferences. They are never getting kicked out. And the media companies don't give a **** because they only cut one check to the conference. Perhaps you should review where the Big 10 is located. Illinois. Specifically, Chicago. Never going to happen.

Maryland is a newer Big 10 member, sure, but the Big 10 is not going to give up a toehold in the DMV, particularly if UVa and/or VaTech go to the SEC.
 
TheOriginalCane said:
Uhhhh, yeah, NO.

Northwestern and Illinois and Vanderbilt are charter members of their conferences. They are never getting kicked out. And the media companies don't give a **** because they only cut one check to the conference. Perhaps you should review where the Big 10 is located. Illinois. Specifically, Chicago. Never going to happen.

Maryland is a newer Big 10 member, sure, but the Big 10 is not going to give up a toehold in the DMV, particularly if UVa and/or VaTech go to the SEC.
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Vandy, Illinois and Northwestern are all spending big money now. So, they’re fine. Maryland must step up or they might get the hook.
 
TheOriginalCane said:
Uhhhh, yeah, NO.

Northwestern and Illinois and Vanderbilt are charter members of their conferences. They are never getting kicked out. And the media companies don't give a **** because they only cut one check to the conference. Perhaps you should review where the Big 10 is located. Illinois. Specifically, Chicago. Never going to happen.

Maryland is a newer Big 10 member, sure, but the Big 10 is not going to give up a toehold in the DMV, particularly if UVa and/or VaTech go to the SEC.
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Those were just examples..you have Minnesota, Rutgers, Purdue, miss at, Kentucky, Mizzou.
 
Yoyo423 said:
Those were just examples..you have Minnesota, Rutgers, Purdue, miss at, Kentucky, Mizzou.
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Mizzou, Kentucky and Miss State are spenders. I’d add Minnesota to that group too. Rutgers, Purdue and Maryland definitely have some big decisions to make. I’d imagine the Big 10 leadership has told those schools they must step up. I know Vandy was told that by the SEC and look at them. Winning 9 games and signing a 5 star QB.
 
Handsome Squidbum said:
I'll bet on B. Notre Dame will partner with the Big 12, service academies, and orphaned ACC schools before surrendering its standalone tv deal. They will only join a conference if the P2 completely locks them out of the College Football Playoff.

If kalshi/polymarket posts odds that ND will remain independent I'll put some $$$ on it.
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You seem to be forgetting that ND has 23 other sports that they have to worry about competing in. Some of their sports would not be traveling to Big 12 or a stripped down ACC to play in. ND hockey is already in the B1G. Out of Bevacqua’s own mouth he said “ND will be forced to join a conference when all 24 of their sports can no longer compete to win championships at a high level.
 
5NC4 said:
You seem to be forgetting that ND has 23 other sports that they have to worry about competing in. Some of their sports would not be traveling to Big 12 or a stripped down ACC to play in. ND hockey is already in the B1G. Out of Bevacqua’s own mouth he said “ND will be forced to join a conference when all 24 of their sports can no longer compete to win championships at a high level.
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Like I said we will see. If you see betting odds let me know and I will happily wager that they will stay independent.
 
LeanMeanOrangeGreen said:
Somewhat off topic, but why is the future always referred to as “P2”. I mean right now it’s P4 but when the ACC implodes and teams go elsewhere, they’re not all going to the BIG/SEC (obviously) and some will join the Big 12. So how does this demote the Big 12 to G status?

Look, obviously the BIG/SEC is where everyone wants to be, but existing power conferences don’t just get demoted unless they implode like the PAC-12, Big East, etc. That’s not going to happen to the Big 12 while they take in ACC refugees, some being decent programs like Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech (most likely). The Big 12 has actually done a fantastic job preventing itself from extinction. The ACC’s demise shouldn’t change this or hurt them.

Reality is it’s going to be like P2.5. SEC/BIG will be treated as the “1’s” and the Big 12 will still be considered a power conference but a reject one. They’re not going to be treated like the MAC or AAC (and they shouldn’t). But I also don’t see any of the current schools getting poached by the BIG/SEC. They already raided who they wanted from that league and I don’t think they’ll come back to take Kansas State or Texas Tech for any reason unless I’m missing something.
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Because the big 12 is on average going to be at least $50-$60 million behind the other two conferences even when their next deal gets renegotiated it could in fact it worse and the brands that are going there in this theoretical scenario don’t actually increase the value of their TV deal
 
Ispyin said:
Because the big 12 is on average going to be at least $50-$60 million behind the other two conferences even when their next deal gets renegotiated it could in fact it worse and the brands that are going there in this theoretical scenario don’t actually increase the value of their TV deal
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But they’re never going to be considered G level in terms of rankings and all that. Would a future TV deal be that bad? Seems like a lot of programs there with a history and a strong fanbase as is. Nothing crazy but we’re not talking about the Mountain West here
 
LeanMeanOrangeGreen said:
But they’re never going to be considered G level in terms of rankings and all that. Would a future TV deal be that bad? Seems like a lot of programs there with a history and a strong fanbase as is. Nothing crazy but we’re not talking about the Mountain West here
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It would not remotely close the gap with the power to though still being ahead of the G6 they are in purgatory in that world, not big enough to compete overall but still spending a lot
 
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