JD4
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Mario Cristobal and Marcus Freeman are both entering Year 4 with their respective programs entering their matchup on August 31st. This gave me an idea to revisit the performance through three years for these two coaches as well as six other notable coaches entering the fourth year of their tenure at P4 programs. The programs I chose include Oregon, Notre Dame, LSU, TCU, USC, Miami, Oklahoma, and Florida.
This initial post only cover performance on the field. The second installation of this series will dive into recruiting performances from H.S. and through the portal. I'll also update this list at the end of the season to include every coach's fourth year record. As you'll see, Mario got off to a slow start relative to some of the others on the list, but our program is on a strong trajectory.
Included in the information is each coach's record through their first three seasons, their total win %, the wins expected by Vegas, and their performance against Vegas' prediction. I also included the ESPN Strength of Schedule and Strength of Record for each season and the average across their tenures.
This analysis is not forward looking, it only reviews results from 2022-now.
The top four coaches:
Going off results in the last three seasons, I think it is clear that Lanning Freeman, Kelly, and Dykes have been the best coaches among this group. Lanning and Freeman took over strong programs, but they earned their spot by improving every season, and consistently beating Vegas' predictions. It remains to be seen if they can continue at this pace, but they appear to have been home run hires for Oregon and Notre Dame. Both coaches average a top 12 Strength of Records across their seasons. Their strength of schedules have probably been aided by playing in conference championship games, high level bowl games, and in the CFP.
Brian Kelly has been very consistent at LSU, winning a respectable 72.5% of his games against some of the most difficult schedules in college football. His average 11th most challenging SOS is second on the list and his 9.7 SOR is second only to Dan Lanning's Oregon.
Sonny Dyke's saw success early making it to the CFP and beating Michigan in his first season, and after a disappointing year two, his team was able to bounce back to a 9-4 record.
Bottom Four Coaches:
Lincoln Riley got off to a hot start at USC with a strong 11-3 season and Heisman winning quarterback. Unfortunately for the Trojans, even with a Caleb Williams' return, they struggled in Riley's second season winning only 8 games. The Trojans first season in the B1G10 was even worse finishing at 7-6. Over the course of three seasons Riley has been even overall against Vegas, but the Trojans trajectory is going the wrong direction. With that said, Riley's teams have faced the third fiercest competition according to ESPN's SOS and they're fourth in SOR. Riley hasn't had a losing season, and his 11 wins in his first year is more than any coach in the bottom four.
Coach Cristobal started his first two seasons really poorly at Miami, but in his third and most recent season the Hurricanes were able to surpass Vegas' expectations of 9.5 wins and the Canes had their third #1 overall pick in Cam Ward who led the nation's #1 offense. CMC is behind only Brent Venables in underperforming against Vegas' expectations, but the Canes appear to be heading in the right direction. Miami has benefited from having the easiest schedule every season throughout Mario's tenure, but that is set to change in 2025, with a projected 36th toughest schedule in the country in 2025. We will see this year if he can once again surpass Vegas' expectations of 9.5 wins with a tougher schedule this season.
Brent Venables
Lincoln Riley left Bum**** Norman, Oklahoma to sunny Los Angeles, California, and on his way out he took recruits, current players, and coaches, and he left ole Venables with his leftovers. Venables is responsible for two of Oklahoma's 14 losing seasons in their 120+ year history. In between those two losing seasons, brent snuck in a 10-3 campaign. No coach on this list has been worse against the spread than Brent Vunerables. He also faces the toughest schedule in the country next year, so many predict if he follows up with anything less than 7 wins he will be fired.
Billy Napier's Gaytors have faced the most challenging schedule of all programs on this list with an average of the 6th most challenging SOS over the three seasons. Billy is 1-2 against Brian Kelly's LSU Tigers, and 0-1 against Mario Cristobal after a complete annihilation in the swamp last season. The Gayturds rallied late last season to finish 8-5 and buy G5 Billy some more time off of the hot seat. Billy has by far the worst record of all of the coaches on the list. He and Brent Venables are the only two on the list with more losing seasons than winning ones. Napier faces the second toughest schedule in the country with a big matchup against Mario's Hurricanes.
This is year four for all of the coaches, no more excuses about the situation inherited! Let's see how these coaches do in head to head matchups against each other.
Head to Head Matchups in 2025:
8/31 Miami vs Notre Dame
9/13 LSU vs Florida
9/20 Miami vs Florida
10/18 USC vs Notre Dame
11/22 USC vs Oregon
11/29 LSU vs Oklahoma
Who do you think has been the best and worst from these coaches through three seasons? And who do you think will be the best after this year ends?
This initial post only cover performance on the field. The second installation of this series will dive into recruiting performances from H.S. and through the portal. I'll also update this list at the end of the season to include every coach's fourth year record. As you'll see, Mario got off to a slow start relative to some of the others on the list, but our program is on a strong trajectory.
Included in the information is each coach's record through their first three seasons, their total win %, the wins expected by Vegas, and their performance against Vegas' prediction. I also included the ESPN Strength of Schedule and Strength of Record for each season and the average across their tenures.
This analysis is not forward looking, it only reviews results from 2022-now.
The top four coaches:
Going off results in the last three seasons, I think it is clear that Lanning Freeman, Kelly, and Dykes have been the best coaches among this group. Lanning and Freeman took over strong programs, but they earned their spot by improving every season, and consistently beating Vegas' predictions. It remains to be seen if they can continue at this pace, but they appear to have been home run hires for Oregon and Notre Dame. Both coaches average a top 12 Strength of Records across their seasons. Their strength of schedules have probably been aided by playing in conference championship games, high level bowl games, and in the CFP.
Brian Kelly has been very consistent at LSU, winning a respectable 72.5% of his games against some of the most difficult schedules in college football. His average 11th most challenging SOS is second on the list and his 9.7 SOR is second only to Dan Lanning's Oregon.
Sonny Dyke's saw success early making it to the CFP and beating Michigan in his first season, and after a disappointing year two, his team was able to bounce back to a 9-4 record.
Bottom Four Coaches:
Lincoln Riley got off to a hot start at USC with a strong 11-3 season and Heisman winning quarterback. Unfortunately for the Trojans, even with a Caleb Williams' return, they struggled in Riley's second season winning only 8 games. The Trojans first season in the B1G10 was even worse finishing at 7-6. Over the course of three seasons Riley has been even overall against Vegas, but the Trojans trajectory is going the wrong direction. With that said, Riley's teams have faced the third fiercest competition according to ESPN's SOS and they're fourth in SOR. Riley hasn't had a losing season, and his 11 wins in his first year is more than any coach in the bottom four.
Coach Cristobal started his first two seasons really poorly at Miami, but in his third and most recent season the Hurricanes were able to surpass Vegas' expectations of 9.5 wins and the Canes had their third #1 overall pick in Cam Ward who led the nation's #1 offense. CMC is behind only Brent Venables in underperforming against Vegas' expectations, but the Canes appear to be heading in the right direction. Miami has benefited from having the easiest schedule every season throughout Mario's tenure, but that is set to change in 2025, with a projected 36th toughest schedule in the country in 2025. We will see this year if he can once again surpass Vegas' expectations of 9.5 wins with a tougher schedule this season.
Brent Venables
Lincoln Riley left Bum**** Norman, Oklahoma to sunny Los Angeles, California, and on his way out he took recruits, current players, and coaches, and he left ole Venables with his leftovers. Venables is responsible for two of Oklahoma's 14 losing seasons in their 120+ year history. In between those two losing seasons, brent snuck in a 10-3 campaign. No coach on this list has been worse against the spread than Brent Vunerables. He also faces the toughest schedule in the country next year, so many predict if he follows up with anything less than 7 wins he will be fired.
Billy Napier's Gaytors have faced the most challenging schedule of all programs on this list with an average of the 6th most challenging SOS over the three seasons. Billy is 1-2 against Brian Kelly's LSU Tigers, and 0-1 against Mario Cristobal after a complete annihilation in the swamp last season. The Gayturds rallied late last season to finish 8-5 and buy G5 Billy some more time off of the hot seat. Billy has by far the worst record of all of the coaches on the list. He and Brent Venables are the only two on the list with more losing seasons than winning ones. Napier faces the second toughest schedule in the country with a big matchup against Mario's Hurricanes.
This is year four for all of the coaches, no more excuses about the situation inherited! Let's see how these coaches do in head to head matchups against each other.
Head to Head Matchups in 2025:
8/31 Miami vs Notre Dame
9/13 LSU vs Florida
9/20 Miami vs Florida
10/18 USC vs Notre Dame
11/22 USC vs Oregon
11/29 LSU vs Oklahoma
Who do you think has been the best and worst from these coaches through three seasons? And who do you think will be the best after this year ends?
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