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FSU kept us in that game by not cashing in on the million and one chances they had to bury us.
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Clemson opens as 2.5-point favorite, line already up to -5.5
- Thread starter 01Canes
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FSU kept us in that game by not cashing in on the million and one chances they had to bury us.
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Yes. But the team didn't quit, which is the point.
jerzeycane
All-ACC
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Let me say it now at 1:28 AM on Monday morning...The slot guy is open
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Yep - Alf got every lucky break in the book. Missed 4th down conversions, dropped TD passes, misses by a normally automatic FG kicker, some of Kayaa's throws miraculously get completed, you name it.
jerzeycane
All-ACC
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Al sucks.
And this line of thinking is corny as ****.
Wasn't nobody round here talking about the lucky *** breaks FSU got last year that had nothing to do with them being better than us.
FOH with that garbage
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Their slot guy is going to kill our LB's.
canesrdynamite
Sophomore
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C'mon guys. It's only 6 yards.
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Awsi Dooger
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I've mentioned this on many sites for years: That 3 PM Pacific Time Sunday afternoon line that shows up on sites like Vegas Insider is a mostly worthless number. It is merely the Las Vegas "send" recommendation from the top sports consultant service in the state. That's where this -2.5 comes from, and has been spotlighted on several Canes sites.
None of the big reputable spots used that number and were pounded all the way up to -7. They know better. They knew better years and years ago, when my friends and I started hanging out at each sportsbook, desperately hoping they would merely throw up the "send" number and let us pound it. None cooperated. They worry about football and don't want to go first. Fortunately, Harrah's did use that "send" number for years on basketball and other sports. That was glorious. You didn't have to pick a high percentage of winners on truly balanced spreads. You merely had to identify the glaring mistakes and take max advantage. So many opportunities like that used to be available to locals, before the corporate mergers that ruined the terrain. Instead of every joint with an independent line and independent opportunity for a guy behind the counter to make a mistake, now there are satellite books with painted numbers. I feel sorry for the young guys who venture to that town these days, compared to how my friends and I found it 30+ years ago. Not many cheapies anymore.
Last I heard, only 1 or 2 small online outfits hang that opening "send" number, and for tiny limits.
Instead of touting that fragile -2.5 "send' number it's more valid to wait 3 hours for the prime time spots to take action. For decades the rule of thumb is that college football action starts to take shape at 6 PM Las Vegas time, or 9 PM Eastern.
This spread is based on power ratings gap and home field adjustment. Nobody cares about noon kickoff or similar garbage. The sportsbooks don't have time or need to make subjective evaluations on game after game, as opposed to using base power ratings and 11/10 edge and allowing them to generate a profit over tens of thousands of repetitions all year long.
None of the big reputable spots used that number and were pounded all the way up to -7. They know better. They knew better years and years ago, when my friends and I started hanging out at each sportsbook, desperately hoping they would merely throw up the "send" number and let us pound it. None cooperated. They worry about football and don't want to go first. Fortunately, Harrah's did use that "send" number for years on basketball and other sports. That was glorious. You didn't have to pick a high percentage of winners on truly balanced spreads. You merely had to identify the glaring mistakes and take max advantage. So many opportunities like that used to be available to locals, before the corporate mergers that ruined the terrain. Instead of every joint with an independent line and independent opportunity for a guy behind the counter to make a mistake, now there are satellite books with painted numbers. I feel sorry for the young guys who venture to that town these days, compared to how my friends and I found it 30+ years ago. Not many cheapies anymore.
Last I heard, only 1 or 2 small online outfits hang that opening "send" number, and for tiny limits.
Instead of touting that fragile -2.5 "send' number it's more valid to wait 3 hours for the prime time spots to take action. For decades the rule of thumb is that college football action starts to take shape at 6 PM Las Vegas time, or 9 PM Eastern.
This spread is based on power ratings gap and home field adjustment. Nobody cares about noon kickoff or similar garbage. The sportsbooks don't have time or need to make subjective evaluations on game after game, as opposed to using base power ratings and 11/10 edge and allowing them to generate a profit over tens of thousands of repetitions all year long.
OrangetieFatface
Thunderdome
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This entire post is rubbish and fallacy.
House always wins on the vig.
Everything else you just completely concocted to help cope. Sorry to hear you've lost so much on gambling. Seek help.
Cane Dynasty
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Awsi Dooger
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Anyone is willing to rip me, particularly on this topic. I can effortlessly counter with a laugh. There is nothing more comical than conventional wisdom perspective of the sports betting industry from afar. Everyone wants to believe it is ultra sophisticated and fixated on every variable related to the specific game. That is world class ignorance. It is all power ratings and home field adjustment. Nothing more. That's why each game receives maybe 30 seconds discussion during that oddsmaker rundown. Everyone in the room enters with the same set of power ratings so their bottom line is the same. Only atypical situations jar the power rating/home field consensus and require greater scrutiny. Often that means simply taking it off the board and waiting for the situation to settle and clarify.
The house hardly wins on every game based on the vig. That is another misconception so common among simpletons who think they understand how Las Vegas works. You don't get balanced action even if the line never moves. Not automatic. There can be a significant tilt. I was startled at how often that happens, when I first got the job as sportsbook supervisor and had access to the computer tally on every game. The line might not move all week but you could have a 30% or even 50% slant toward one side. Higher, in some situations. That doesn't necessarily mean you move the number. That is scared oddsmaking. For one thing, you risk getting sided or middled if you move the number. You might be high on one side even though you have the standard spread on the game and other joints are high on the other side. This is mere normalcy, given the volume of games.
The solution is to let it go, ride the outcome. The benefit is that the house win is almost always higher than the risk. The computer What If scenario might indicate a $74,000 loss if Team A covers, but a $112,000 win if Team B covers. So you don't panic and move the line to get in balance. You root for Team B behind the counter. Over the long run you have confidence that Team B will cover often enough to justify your lack of panic and line movement.
It is not always a direct 11/10 relationship between house win and lose expectancy due to parlay and teaser money along with parlay and teaser cards. Those areas generally work in the house favor, bumping the profit. But once in a while there can be an outlier parlay card out there with a huge potential payoff. You might not know it exists until using that What If function. Then it jumps off the screen at you that if Team A covers somebody is going to hit a 10 team parlay card and jolt your expected bottom line. Once in a while there are line adjustments in a situation like that, if you realize one game -- like Monday Night -- is tied to massive parlay card vulnerability on one side, or maybe one total.
The house hardly wins on every game based on the vig. That is another misconception so common among simpletons who think they understand how Las Vegas works. You don't get balanced action even if the line never moves. Not automatic. There can be a significant tilt. I was startled at how often that happens, when I first got the job as sportsbook supervisor and had access to the computer tally on every game. The line might not move all week but you could have a 30% or even 50% slant toward one side. Higher, in some situations. That doesn't necessarily mean you move the number. That is scared oddsmaking. For one thing, you risk getting sided or middled if you move the number. You might be high on one side even though you have the standard spread on the game and other joints are high on the other side. This is mere normalcy, given the volume of games.
The solution is to let it go, ride the outcome. The benefit is that the house win is almost always higher than the risk. The computer What If scenario might indicate a $74,000 loss if Team A covers, but a $112,000 win if Team B covers. So you don't panic and move the line to get in balance. You root for Team B behind the counter. Over the long run you have confidence that Team B will cover often enough to justify your lack of panic and line movement.
It is not always a direct 11/10 relationship between house win and lose expectancy due to parlay and teaser money along with parlay and teaser cards. Those areas generally work in the house favor, bumping the profit. But once in a while there can be an outlier parlay card out there with a huge potential payoff. You might not know it exists until using that What If function. Then it jumps off the screen at you that if Team A covers somebody is going to hit a 10 team parlay card and jolt your expected bottom line. Once in a while there are line adjustments in a situation like that, if you realize one game -- like Monday Night -- is tied to massive parlay card vulnerability on one side, or maybe one total.
Awsi Dooger
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I checked the offshore line movements on the Miami/Clemson game. It looks like only one spot that runs under two different names uses a version of that early "send" number. They are called Betonline and Sportsbetting.com. I don't use those sites. Their numbers are identical every step of the way regardless of game or type of bet so obviously it is one operation under two different names. Maybe one for United States customers and another worldwide. I don't know and don't care. If they take overwhelmingly "public" money from small bettors all over the globe then they can afford to hang more fragile numbers and not care too much about it.
Anyway, they didn't open at -2.5. At least they had enough sense to shade it up a bit, using Clemson -3 with -115 juice and not -110. That lasted 4 minutes. Then it moved to -4 -115. That lasted 2 minutes. Then it moved to -5 -115.
Here is the link to those moves:
College Football Betting Line Movements for Clemson Tigers at Miami (FL) Hurricanes by Offshore Sportsbooks at VegasInsider.com.
Anyway, they didn't open at -2.5. At least they had enough sense to shade it up a bit, using Clemson -3 with -115 juice and not -110. That lasted 4 minutes. Then it moved to -4 -115. That lasted 2 minutes. Then it moved to -5 -115.
Here is the link to those moves:
College Football Betting Line Movements for Clemson Tigers at Miami (FL) Hurricanes by Offshore Sportsbooks at VegasInsider.com.
T
TreOFive
Guest
ATTENTION...ATTENTION......we have a a new super fan in the room. Go fug yourself buddy.
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Lookin for answerz jerzey....