Assuming Sorsby is a lock for TTU/NFL, I have Hoover/Leavitt/Raiola in my first tier. Sounds like we are convinced Hoover is going to IU, so I guess he's out.
I would take Bailey over Mestemaker. They are both potentially 2 yr guys, but Mestemaker is risky af (with craaaaazy upside potential, tbf). Mestemaker hasn't thrown a pass against a P4 team, and threw 6 INTs against the 2 best G5 teams he played against. No one knows whether Mestemaker is a starting P4 QB. Mensah had games against Kansas State and Oklahoma last year before he portalled; Mestemaker didn't have any P4 tests.
Fwiw, my dream scenario is that Freeman takes an NFL job, DeBoer goes to ND, and we get Ty Simpson in the portal, but I don't know if that's gonna be possible with the calendar.