CJ Bailey needs to come home

[Alex_Dynamix]

But both those guys ARE possible still lol. They just aren't likely. And all the people who have said they're likely returning or whatever... well Portal doesn't even open for another week or so, so as far as I'm concerned most of that is meaningless currently.
It also really depends how much money we are looking to spend. Like If you told me the GAMEPLAN was to moneyball it a bit more at QB to get specific higher end guys elsewhere I'd give a different list, and maybe Bailey would be higher on that.

But purely NIL is no factor well I'd list other guys that aren't in the Portal just like Bailey isn't in the portal as well.

Sorsby just makes the most sense as the obvious #1 for everything I'd expect this staff to look for, regardless whether he seems a TTU lock or not. He has the talent, the athleticism, the playmaking, and the aspect the coaches will love - he doesn't really turn the ball over or take sacks.

Then I'd have JKS and Mestemaker probably 2nd then 3rd. But that is also valuing 2 years likely starting. If you get a guy with 2 years maybe you don't have the expectations they will be fully developed this year and thats a trade off you're willing to accept.

And I mean if you could get Mensah or Ty Simpson both those guys would be near or at the top. Both are CLEAR above Bailey and it's not even close. Becht is a guy that is a pretty **** safe bet to be good. Don't think he'd have super high upside though. Raiola imo is definitely more of an upside play and is absolutely a better passer than Bailey. Demond Williams would be a very high floot guy as well and would be a clear upgrade over Bailey. I'd put Bailey more in a Fifita and Hoover discussion honestly. And the Reason I wouldn't have Hoover as a guaranteed better player is he did have a lot of turnovers and he has zero running ability. He's kinda like Raiola but Raiola imo is more talented and doesn't turn the ball over as much...

Bailey - and I've said this before - the by far best statistic I've found to support wanting Bailey in this offense is entirely about his performance passing AFTER 3.5s. So WHEN he is given a lot of time to throw (or I guess he makes the time himself maybe) he performed well. This is important because IF you believe our Oline will be as good in pass protection as it was the past 2 years where QBs have all day to throw, it actually makes sense to prefer guys who can "Create" explosive plays given a lot of time in the pocket rather than a guy who is more of a <2s passer and a statue like Beck is. So that scramble ability and passing ability if given great protection is clearly the best reason to Believe Bailey would take a massive step forward for us than he has actually shown at NCSt. And again I've said all this before. Some may think I'm just hating on Bailey, but the fact just is he's not as talented or proven as other guys are. So if he wants the same NIL as some of these other guys we'd be crazy to prefer/choose him over them. I could see him making sense if we are really looking to spend big in other areas. But that's more risky than just getting the best QB available. Every year we should just be spending to get a top 2-3 Portal QB period

So you say bailey isnt as proven as the other guys, do you consider Mestemaker more proven?

 

[Calinative]

Brother its been proven once guys know where theyre going it ain't happening, i just want to know who the good QB's on the market in your opinion are. Mine are:

1. Raiola
2. Mestemaker
3. Bailey
4. Levitt (due to injury)

So its really not that competitive imo. The pickings are slim.

Tier 1, High quality and EXTREMELY Safe Choices: Sorsby > Mensah > Kevin Jennings > Simpson / Demond Williams
Tier 2, Multi year top Talents: CJ Carr > JKS > Mestemaker > Malik Washington > Heintschel
Tier 3, Positives and Negatives: Raiola > Leavitt > Bailey / Becht / Hoover > Mateer* > Lagway / Fifita > Weigman / Byrum Brown
Tier 4, Underrated Cheaper guys: Amari Odom / Katin Houser > Braden Atkinson > Owen McCown > Nick Minicucci / Colton Joseph .... Angeli,
Tier 5, QB2 guys that could be starters: Austin Simmons / Will Hammond /

 

[Donny Donowitz]

Thanks, I’m trying to sort through it. The only thing I don’t like about Raiola is he isn’t a runner though I recall him being able to move in the pocket - with some awareness. I wonder if Carr would leave if Freeman took an NFL job???

Pocket awareness and extending plays are more important than running imo.

I want the ball in playmakers hands…unless there’s a Lamar Jackson type.

Look at Reed, Brown, Lagway. We curb stomped them all.

 

[Calinative]

So you say bailey isnt as proven as the other guys, do you consider Mestemaker more proven?

No I consider Mestemaker a much better throwing talent with a guaranteed 2 years of eligibility.

 

[canesbaby]

This is the guy. Hometown guy, he will have the city on fire and could be the starter for 2 years while Luke and Coleman develop.

It just makes way way way too much sense for this to happen. Which means it probably won’t.

 

[canesbaby]

This whole conversation is dumb/repetitive. If Bailey had come here he would not have been a starter for the last two years and likely not developed and at best we'd be rolling the dice he's any good in his first yr as likely starter for us (2026) .... so who gives a **** why we picked Judd over him.

This is kinda the scary part for me. Where in the QB development from our OC? We can’t do this portal QB thing every year forever. Hopefully MC takes a step to hire a dedicated QB coach this offseason so we start developing the QBs we recruit.

 

[BS85]

This is kinda the scary part for me. Where in the QB development from our OC? We can’t do this portal QB thing every year forever. Hopefully MC takes a step to hire a dedicated QB coach this offseason so we start developing the QBs we recruit.

Sure we can, although I'd prefer to see development as well. However, I don't think it would be realistic to have Dawson develop any of the high school qbs into a starter outside of Nichols.

 

[canesbaby]

Sure we can.

You’re right. I should have said, in my opinion, we can’t keep doing the portal QB thing every year.

Feels like a dangerous game to play to me.

 

[BS85]

You’re right. I should have said, in my opinion, we can’t keep doing the portal QB thing every year.

Feels like a dangerous game to play to me.

You responded fast but i edited my original post. I too would prefer it too but i think it would be really hard to do based on getting (outside Nichols maybe) lower ranked high school qbs who are long shots to ever be more thank backups.

 

[Groz73Cane]

Scorched earth.

Unfortunately, there is some truth to this. The kid has a skill set, but it hasn’t been tapped into or exploited. He comes here he’s a project not a QB1. We already have projects with our recruits. I have said this before, without a dedicated QB coach all the potential in the world is just that.. potential. I’ve gotten s**t for it, but it’s necessary. A coach is just that, coaching, about reads, progressions, release points/angles, repetitions and muscle memory, footwork. This is what coaches do. OC’s deal with philosophy and schemes, X/O’s . Can’t expect results if the roadwork hasn’t been done, by coaches.

 

[ageezy]

Bailey is accurate but I don't trust his processing.

Raiola is accurate but he can't run at all like Beck.

Sorsby is probably the best combo of accuracy, experience, athleticism.

I'm sure there are others but nobody seems to be possessing accuracy, processing, experience, AND athleticism other than CJ Carr and Ty Simpson.

Maybe Bama gets boat raced and Simpson gets pushed out.

you don't trust his processing ..... hmmm .... he's thrown for over 5500yds, 42tds, 19int, at 64% at ncstate ... dmoney said it best, if he was in texas we'd be all over him

 

[MrWineAndDine]

Mendoza was a Top 25 prospect overall in the Portal. He had a 93 rating (same as Xavier Lucas, for comparison). His recruitment was streamlined, as it is for many Portal QBs, but he signed a two-comma contract.

I bring that up to show how the national perception (as reflected by his rating) outpaced the board opinion. I expect a similar thing to happen if Bailey enters the Portal. In his last game, the announcers were talking about him as a future Heisman contender. Doesn't mean it's true, but it reflects the gap between the national perception and the perception on here.

As for the substance of your post, you cited Bailey's QBR against us. He actually finished 14th in QBR in the entire country. Remember, he's only 19. He's 6'6, has a strong arm, can run, has great character, and is clean medically. He has 21 starts as an ACC quarterback with two years of eligibility left. There is a lot to like.

I believe he played poorly against Miami because (1) young quarterbacks have bad games; and (2) his supporting cast was overwhelmed. If you put him behind an elite pass protecting OL, I expect him to thrive. His trajectory has been straight up since high school. He keeps getting physically stronger and his mechanics have improved every year. And he's already a good ACC QB, so the floor is high.

The truth is I don't know what Miami wants to do. Bailey might not even enter the Portal. But if he does, expect to read a lot of nice things from people who live North of Palm Beach.

**** it… let’s ride!

 

[canefan96]

Not a huge Bailey fan but ………
I do like his completion ratio of 70% plus and I do like he adds another threat as a runner.

 

[ssvir]

This is kinda the scary part for me. Where in the QB development from our OC? We can’t do this portal QB thing every year forever. Hopefully MC takes a step to hire a dedicated QB coach this offseason so we start developing the QBs we recruit.

I guess you missed the 9,000 threads including something like the last 10 Heisman finalists all being transfers. 25% of the top 10 teams the last five years had QBs they recruited. Time to retire your leather helmet era philosophy.

 

[canecrazy23]

I typically stay out of debates but I love ball, so I'll bite here.

Any chance you can tell me why you feel this way? I'm not looking to play gotcha, I'm looking to understand why so many feel this way and you seem like a good representative of the group.

I like Bailey but I'm just curious. If an NC is the Ultimate goal can you name me an NC wining QB that had not 1 but 2 games like Bailey had against UM and ND. I mean he was absolutely horrible. Like not just bad but horrible.

 

[Gi0logy]

I guess you missed the 9,000 threads including the last 10 Heisman finalists all being transfers. 25% of the top 10 teams the last five years had QBs they recruited. Time to retire your leather helmet era philosophy.

 

[ssvir]

you don't trust his processing ..... hmmm .... he's thrown for over 5500yds, 42tds, 19int, at 64% at ncstate ... dmoney said it best, if he was in texas we'd be all over him

No I don't trust him processing and the stats you pointed out don't prove anything about processing. He played two defenses with a pulse in 2024 and three in 2025 and was pedestrian in all of them.

I know a well connected NIL agent and Bailey is nowhere near the top of the food chain for anyone.