CJ Bailey needs to come home

Me? Absolutely not..I thought that even if they were close or Bailey was a little worse, they should have taken Bailey even if only because it would improve our chances with JJ by only 1%.
This whole conversation is dumb/repetitive. If Bailey had come here he would not have been a starter for the last two years and likely not developed and at best we'd be rolling the dice he's any good in his first yr as likely starter for us (2026) .... so who gives a **** why we picked Judd over him.
 
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Non of these qbs are elevating the offense. Yea he has things to work on. He still is only 19. The turnovers can be fixed. And he would definitely be a top 5 portal qb. He would be ahead of everybody except probably sorsby,Leavitt, and mestemaker. As much as y’all point out the negatives his production matches up with all those guys. Would he be my top pick? No, but y’all acting like the kid is a bum is crazy
you must have miss read the part where I literally said he's fine lmao. Thats the problem with all the Bailey fans, they lie and act like everyone else is saying he's terrible. no, he's fine. he's nothing special. He's certainly not more talented than most these other guys we are talking about. Objectively he'd be like 3rd AT BEST of the possible portal additions. And you can make a case for him being more like 5-10 range. like I said if his NIL figure were to match his actual ability and production we could maybe have a conversation about if he'd be worth it if it meant getting him and like 2 other top guys we otherwise wouldn't be able to get.

Like Katin Houser vs CJ Bailey... Which is actually better? Well I'd say Houser would be the far better value and get what like 90-95% of what Bailey would be expected to bring? **** someone like Noah Fifita has FAR MORE proven high level stats than Bailey. Josh Hoover has far better passing upside and the same turnover concerns except he can't scramble. Someone like Amari odom, Raiola, Lagway, etc imo have a lot more actual talent.

Probably the best player to add imo for next year would actually be like Kevin Jennings if everyone was being honest. But hes not entering.
 
Mendoza was viewed far better at the same point as Bailey, and it's not even a discussion. Every top portal team this yr is rumored for QB and ONLY US is CJ Bailey mentioned in regards to. And not even nationally only locally. Nationally everyone is linking us with far bigger names.

Mendoza was sought after by Indiana. This yr who are they seeking? Sorsby/mestemaker/Hoover...
uh ....
mendoza sophomore year stats are
3004yds16tds 6int 69% completion ... qb rating of 63.8 ... california went 6-5

bailey
3105yds 25tds 9int 69% completion qb rating of 79.2 ... ncstate went 8-5

mendoza got more and more buzz as the summer went on with those numbers ... and you don't think the bailey buzz is gonna grow as well as his numbers are better than mendoza's? cmon now ...
 
uh ....
mendoza sophomore year stats are
3004yds16tds 6int 69% completion ... qb rating of 63.8 ... california went 6-5

bailey
3105yds 25tds 9int 69% completion qb rating of 79.2 ... ncstate went 8-4

mendoza got more and more buzz as the summer went on with those numbers ... and you don't think the bailey buzz is gonna grow as well as his numbers are better than mendoza's? cmon now ...
okay now do you want me to use simple stats to list 25 qbs better than Bailey we should target then?
 
Who’s the best option for that, Raiola?
Bailey is accurate but I don't trust his processing.

Raiola is accurate but he can't run at all like Beck.

Sorsby is probably the best combo of accuracy, experience, athleticism.

I'm sure there are others but nobody seems to be possessing accuracy, processing, experience, AND athleticism other than CJ Carr and Ty Simpson.

Maybe Bama gets boat raced and Simpson gets pushed out.
 
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it's late and i've put everyone to bed ... i got time
Among QBs with 145+ attempts, Bailey was 18th in Attempts, 32 in QB Rating, 20th in TDs, has 30th most Turnover worthy plays, 25th in Yards, and 48th in Y/A, and like 51st in Adjusted Y/A... Which Imo is a better metric than most of these basic stats.

Just in a simple Adjusted Y/A. Sayin, Mestemaker, Dante Moore, Byrum Brown, Chambliss, Carr, Sorsby, Demond Williams, Colton Joseph, Angeli, Maiava, Dru Deshields, Fifita, Collandrea, Kevin Jennings, Houser, Odom, Mensah, Barnett, Cameran Brown (gsu), Raiola, Hoover, Ty Simpson, Becht, Arch, JC French (GaSo) all rank higher than Him. ... Guys slightly below would be Marcel Reed, Sellers, McCown, Underwood, Weigman....

In terms of Turnover worthy plays the only guys that had more and are returning this year are Marcel Reed, Hoover, JKS, Mateer, Maiava, Bear Bachmeier, Avery Johnson, Lagway, Weigman.... And guys with just fewer are Mensah, Odom, Heintschel, Arch, McCown, Simpson, Sellers,etc.

Guys with better Pass rating are Sayin, mestemaker, moore, Brown, Carr, Demond, Mensah, Raiola, Sorsby, Maiava, Fifita, McCown, Odom, Simpson, Deshields... Guys with slightly lower are Hoover, Jennings, Colandrea, Houser, Arch, Colton Joseph, Weigman...

Guys with better Accurate Throw % are Sayin, Moore, Raiola, Mestemaker, Demond, Mensah, McCown, Jennings, Fifita... Guys slightly lower are Brown, Angeli, Simpson, Houser, Chambliss, Colandrea...

And I only listed expected returning players here.

When We got Cam Ward we expected him to be a top 10 returning QB, and I expected him to be top 5 at least. When we got Beck, I'd bet most nationally thought he'd be right around a top 10 QB returning in CFB with maybe the injury serving as the primary reason he wouldn't have been. Where do you think CJ Bailey ranks purely in a returning QB ranking in CFB? Cause I'll tell you it **** sure isn't in the top 10.
 
Among QBs with 145+ attempts, Bailey was 18th in Attempts, 32 in QB Rating, 20th in TDs, has 30th most Turnover worthy plays, 25th in Yards, and 48th in Y/A, and like 51st in Adjusted Y/A... Which Imo is a better metric than most of these basic stats.

Just in a simple Adjusted Y/A. Sayin, Mestemaker, Dante Moore, Byrum Brown, Chambliss, Carr, Sorsby, Demond Williams, Colton Joseph, Angeli, Maiava, Dru Deshields, Fifita, Collandrea, Kevin Jennings, Houser, Odom, Mensah, Barnett, Cameran Brown (gsu), Raiola, Hoover, Ty Simpson, Becht, Arch, JC French (GaSo) all rank higher than Him. ... Guys slightly below would be Marcel Reed, Sellers, McCown, Underwood, Weigman....

In terms of Turnover worthy plays the only guys that had more and are returning this year are Marcel Reed, Hoover, JKS, Mateer, Maiava, Bear Bachmeier, Avery Johnson, Lagway, Weigman.... And guys with just fewer are Mensah, Odom, Heintschel, Arch, McCown, Simpson, Sellers,etc.

Guys with better Pass rating are Sayin, mestemaker, moore, Brown, Carr, Demond, Mensah, Raiola, Sorsby, Maiava, Fifita, McCown, Odom, Simpson, Deshields... Guys with slightly lower are Hoover, Jennings, Colandrea, Houser, Arch, Colton Joseph, Weigman...

Guys with better Accurate Throw % are Sayin, Moore, Raiola, Mestemaker, Demond, Mensah, McCown, Jennings, Fifita... Guys slightly lower are Brown, Angeli, Simpson, Houser, Chambliss, Colandrea...

And I only listed expected returning players here.

When We got Cam Ward we expected him to be a top 10 returning QB, and I expected him to be top 5 at least. When we got Beck, I'd bet most nationally thought he'd be right around a top 10 QB returning in CFB with maybe the injury serving as the primary reason he wouldn't have been. Where do you think CJ Bailey ranks purely in a returning QB ranking in CFB? Cause I'll tell you it **** sure isn't in the top 10.
Who is your top 5 portal qbs possible? Not sorsby since hes going to TT or Hoover who is IU bound?
 
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Among QBs with 145+ attempts, Bailey was 18th in Attempts, 32 in QB Rating, 20th in TDs, has 30th most Turnover worthy plays, 25th in Yards, and 48th in Y/A, and like 51st in Adjusted Y/A... Which Imo is a better metric than most of these basic stats.

Just in a simple Adjusted Y/A. Sayin, Mestemaker, Dante Moore, Byrum Brown, Chambliss, Carr, Sorsby, Demond Williams, Colton Joseph, Angeli, Maiava, Dru Deshields, Fifita, Collandrea, Kevin Jennings, Houser, Odom, Mensah, Barnett, Cameran Brown (gsu), Raiola, Hoover, Ty Simpson, Becht, Arch, JC French (GaSo) all rank higher than Him. ... Guys slightly below would be Marcel Reed, Sellers, McCown, Underwood, Weigman....

In terms of Turnover worthy plays the only guys that had more and are returning this year are Marcel Reed, Hoover, JKS, Mateer, Maiava, Bear Bachmeier, Avery Johnson, Lagway, Weigman.... And guys with just fewer are Mensah, Odom, Heintschel, Arch, McCown, Simpson, Sellers,etc.

Guys with better Pass rating are Sayin, mestemaker, moore, Brown, Carr, Demond, Mensah, Raiola, Sorsby, Maiava, Fifita, McCown, Odom, Simpson, Deshields... Guys with slightly lower are Hoover, Jennings, Colandrea, Houser, Arch, Colton Joseph, Weigman...

Guys with better Accurate Throw % are Sayin, Moore, Raiola, Mestemaker, Demond, Mensah, McCown, Jennings, Fifita... Guys slightly lower are Brown, Angeli, Simpson, Houser, Chambliss, Colandrea...

And I only listed expected returning players here.

When We got Cam Ward we expected him to be a top 10 returning QB, and I expected him to be top 5 at least. When we got Beck, I'd bet most nationally thought he'd be right around a top 10 QB returning in CFB with maybe the injury serving as the primary reason he wouldn't have been. Where do you think CJ Bailey ranks purely in a returning QB ranking in CFB? Cause I'll tell you it **** sure isn't in the top 10.
what your eyes tell you? ... great work btw
 
I would be shocked if JKS doesn’t go to Oregon if Moore declares for the draft. Idc what he said about staying. The only reason he is at Cal is bc Moore already had the starting job at Oregon.
I seem to remember a story that JKS was originally wanting to commit to Cal but decided to go to Oregon because there was tension coming from Mendoza, maybe during recruiting trip? So when Mendoza transferred out, that is why JKS switched to Cal.

I might be completely wrong, but that is what I seem to remember about JKS and Cal.
 
All the dudes in here yapping about not wanting Bailey still haven't admitted they were wrong about Mendoza, they just move the goal posts to he will suck in the NFL or Indianas defense is doing all the work, that should tell you all you need to know about this Bailey subject & CIS.
 
Among QBs with 145+ attempts, Bailey was 18th in Attempts, 32 in QB Rating, 20th in TDs, has 30th most Turnover worthy plays, 25th in Yards, and 48th in Y/A, and like 51st in Adjusted Y/A... Which Imo is a better metric than most of these basic stats.

Just in a simple Adjusted Y/A. Sayin, Mestemaker, Dante Moore, Byrum Brown, Chambliss, Carr, Sorsby, Demond Williams, Colton Joseph, Angeli, Maiava, Dru Deshields, Fifita, Collandrea, Kevin Jennings, Houser, Odom, Mensah, Barnett, Cameran Brown (gsu), Raiola, Hoover, Ty Simpson, Becht, Arch, JC French (GaSo) all rank higher than Him. ... Guys slightly below would be Marcel Reed, Sellers, McCown, Underwood, Weigman....

In terms of Turnover worthy plays the only guys that had more and are returning this year are Marcel Reed, Hoover, JKS, Mateer, Maiava, Bear Bachmeier, Avery Johnson, Lagway, Weigman.... And guys with just fewer are Mensah, Odom, Heintschel, Arch, McCown, Simpson, Sellers,etc.

Guys with better Pass rating are Sayin, mestemaker, moore, Brown, Carr, Demond, Mensah, Raiola, Sorsby, Maiava, Fifita, McCown, Odom, Simpson, Deshields... Guys with slightly lower are Hoover, Jennings, Colandrea, Houser, Arch, Colton Joseph, Weigman...

Guys with better Accurate Throw % are Sayin, Moore, Raiola, Mestemaker, Demond, Mensah, McCown, Jennings, Fifita... Guys slightly lower are Brown, Angeli, Simpson, Houser, Chambliss, Colandrea...

And I only listed expected returning players here.

When We got Cam Ward we expected him to be a top 10 returning QB, and I expected him to be top 5 at least. When we got Beck, I'd bet most nationally thought he'd be right around a top 10 QB returning in CFB with maybe the injury serving as the primary reason he wouldn't have been. Where do you think CJ Bailey ranks purely in a returning QB ranking in CFB? Cause I'll tell you it **** sure isn't in the top 10.
How would you project Bailey in Dawsons offense compared to the other available QBs in the portal?

I agree there are better returning QBs than Bailey, but I believe Bailey and Mestemaker are the best scheme fits of the guys available (assuming Bailey hits the portal). I only give Bailey the edge because of his experience in the ACC and his upside, having 20, P4 starts at just 19 years old is impressive.

6-6 220, 70% accurate, with escapability, and 20 career starts at only 19. That is a very high floor and if he can continue to improve this kid could be special.
 
Who is your top 5 portal qbs possible? Not sorsby since hes going to TT or Hoover who is IU bound?
But both those guys ARE possible still lol. They just aren't likely. And all the people who have said they're likely returning or whatever... well Portal doesn't even open for another week or so, so as far as I'm concerned most of that is meaningless currently.
It also really depends how much money we are looking to spend. Like If you told me the GAMEPLAN was to moneyball it a bit more at QB to get specific higher end guys elsewhere I'd give a different list, and maybe Bailey would be higher on that.

But purely NIL is no factor well I'd list other guys that aren't in the Portal just like Bailey isn't in the portal as well.

Sorsby just makes the most sense as the obvious #1 for everything I'd expect this staff to look for, regardless whether he seems a TTU lock or not. He has the talent, the athleticism, the playmaking, and the aspect the coaches will love - he doesn't really turn the ball over or take sacks.

Then I'd have JKS and Mestemaker probably 2nd then 3rd. But that is also valuing 2 years likely starting. If you get a guy with 2 years maybe you don't have the expectations they will be fully developed this year and thats a trade off you're willing to accept.

And I mean if you could get Mensah or Ty Simpson both those guys would be near or at the top. Both are CLEAR above Bailey and it's not even close. Becht is a guy that is a pretty **** safe bet to be good. Don't think he'd have super high upside though. Raiola imo is definitely more of an upside play and is absolutely a better passer than Bailey. Demond Williams would be a very high floot guy as well and would be a clear upgrade over Bailey. I'd put Bailey more in a Fifita and Hoover discussion honestly. And the Reason I wouldn't have Hoover as a guaranteed better player is he did have a lot of turnovers and he has zero running ability. He's kinda like Raiola but Raiola imo is more talented and doesn't turn the ball over as much...

Bailey - and I've said this before - the by far best statistic I've found to support wanting Bailey in this offense is entirely about his performance passing AFTER 3.5s. So WHEN he is given a lot of time to throw (or I guess he makes the time himself maybe) he performed well. This is important because IF you believe our Oline will be as good in pass protection as it was the past 2 years where QBs have all day to throw, it actually makes sense to prefer guys who can "Create" explosive plays given a lot of time in the pocket rather than a guy who is more of a <2s passer and a statue like Beck is. So that scramble ability and passing ability if given great protection is clearly the best reason to Believe Bailey would take a massive step forward for us than he has actually shown at NCSt. And again I've said all this before. Some may think I'm just hating on Bailey, but the fact just is he's not as talented or proven as other guys are. So if he wants the same NIL as some of these other guys we'd be crazy to prefer/choose him over them. I could see him making sense if we are really looking to spend big in other areas. But that's more risky than just getting the best QB available. Every year we should just be spending to get a top 2-3 Portal QB period
 
I seem to remember a story that JKS was originally wanting to commit to Cal but decided to go to Oregon because there was tension coming from Mendoza, maybe during recruiting trip? So when Mendoza transferred out, that is why JKS switched to Cal.

I might be completely wrong, but that is what I seem to remember about JKS and Cal.
That is correct, that how I knew JSK was never hitting the portal. Cal is the only place the kid ever wanted to be.
 
All the dudes in here yapping about not wanting Bailey still haven't admitted they were wrong about Mendoza, they just move the goal posts to he will suck in the NFL or Indianas defense is doing all the work, that should tell you all you need to know about this Bailey subject & CIS.
hmm wonder how many posts you'll be able to find of me ****ting on mendoza.... I'd bet not many to none. In fact I wanted Mendoza over Beck specifically due to injury AND most importantly COST.
 
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But both those guys ARE possible still lol. They just aren't likely. And all the people who have said they're likely returning or whatever... well Portal doesn't even open for another week or so, so as far as I'm concerned most of that is meaningless currently.
It also really depends how much money we are looking to spend. Like If you told me the GAMEPLAN was to moneyball it a bit more at QB to get specific higher end guys elsewhere I'd give a different list, and maybe Bailey would be higher on that.

But purely NIL is no factor well I'd list other guys that aren't in the Portal just like Bailey isn't in the portal as well.

Sorsby just makes the most sense as the obvious #1 for everything I'd expect this staff to look for, regardless whether he seems a TTU lock or not. He has the talent, the athleticism, the playmaking, and the aspect the coaches will love - he doesn't really turn the ball over or take sacks.

Then I'd have JKS and Mestemaker probably 2nd then 3rd. But that is also valuing 2 years likely starting. If you get a guy with 2 years maybe you don't have the expectations they will be fully developed this year and thats a trade off you're willing to accept.

And I mean if you could get Mensah or Ty Simpson both those guys would be near or at the top. Both are CLEAR above Bailey and it's not even close. Becht is a guy that is a pretty **** safe bet to be good. Don't think he'd have super high upside though. Raiola imo is definitely more of an upside play and is absolutely a better passer than Bailey. Demond Williams would be a very high floot guy as well and would be a clear upgrade over Bailey. I'd put Bailey more in a Fifita and Hoover discussion honestly. And the Reason I wouldn't have Hoover as a guaranteed better player is he did have a lot of turnovers and he has zero running ability. He's kinda like Raiola but Raiola imo is more talented and doesn't turn the ball over as much...

Bailey - and I've said this before - the by far best statistic I've found to support wanting Bailey in this offense is entirely about his performance passing AFTER 3.5s. So WHEN he is given a lot of time to throw (or I guess he makes the time himself maybe) he performed well. This is important because IF you believe our Oline will be as good in pass protection as it was the past 2 years where QBs have all day to throw, it actually makes sense to prefer guys who can "Create" explosive plays given a lot of time in the pocket rather than a guy who is more of a <2s passer and a statue like Beck is. So that scramble ability and passing ability if given great protection is clearly the best reason to Believe Bailey would take a massive step forward for us than he has actually shown at NCSt. And again I've said all this before. Some may think I'm just hating on Bailey, but the fact just is he's not as talented or proven as other guys are. So if he wants the same NIL as some of these other guys we'd be crazy to prefer/choose him over them. I could see him making sense if we are really looking to spend big in other areas. But that's more risky than just getting the best QB available. Every year we should just be spending to get a top 2-3 Portal QB period
Brother its been proven once guys know where theyre going it ain't happening, i just want to know who the good QB's on the market in your opinion are. Mine are:

1. Raiola
2. Mestemaker
3. Bailey
4. Levitt (due to injury)

So its really not that competitive imo. The pickings are slim.
 
Bailey is accurate but I don't trust his processing.

Raiola is accurate but he can't run at all like Beck.

Sorsby is probably the best combo of accuracy, experience, athleticism.

I'm sure there are others but nobody seems to be possessing accuracy, processing, experience, AND athleticism other than CJ Carr and Ty Simpson.

Maybe Bama gets boat raced and Simpson gets pushed out.
Thanks, I’m trying to sort through it. The only thing I don’t like about Raiola is he isn’t a runner though I recall him being able to move in the pocket - with some awareness. I wonder if Carr would leave if Freeman took an NFL job???
 
All the dudes in here yapping about not wanting Bailey still haven't admitted they were wrong about Mendoza, they just move the goal posts to he will suck in the NFL or Indianas defense is doing all the work, that should tell you all you need to know about this Bailey subject & CIS.
IfI I’m being honest, this year was one of the worst years where nobody WON the Heisman, it was best of who didn’t move to the pros last year.

Mendoza has had three big time games and he didn’t do all that much in any of those. His Heisman moment was one drive against an underperforming Penn St team that had already lost several games. Pretty sure his TD/Int ratio as 1:1.

If you take out their non-conference gimmes, he has a 24:6 td/int ratio.
You add in the bottom dwellers of the Big 10 as well, which is Purdue, Wisconsin and MSu and for those 5 games he had a 22:0 TD/Int ratio. In the other 6 games he had a 11:6 ratio.

That all said, using Mendoza as a reference point for Bailey and some incredible jump this year is wild.

I think Bailey will be the guy but that doesn’t mean CIS has to be unanamious that he;s the best fit possible.
 
IfI I’m being honest, this year was one of the worst years where nobody WON the Heisman, it was best of who didn’t move to the pros last year.

Mendoza has had three big time games and he didn’t do all that much in any of those. His Heisman moment was one drive against an underperforming Penn St team that had already lost several games. Pretty sure his TD/Int ratio as 1:1.

If you take out their non-conference gimmes, he has a 24:6 td/int ratio.
You add in the bottom dwellers of the Big 10 as well, which is Purdue, Wisconsin and MSu and for those 5 games he had a 22:0 TD/Int ratio. In the other 6 games he had a 11:6 ratio.

That all said, using Mendoza as a reference point for Bailey and some incredible jump this year is wild.

I think Bailey will be the guy but that doesn’t mean CIS has to be unanamious that he;s the best fit possible.
Im not saying Bailey will win a Hesiman or even replicate Mendozas success as a player/transfer, but to say things like the kid is irrelevant other then Miami fansites & is only on Miami's radar cause he's from Miami is horse**** in my opinion & is where im comparing him to Mendoza because the same things were said about Mendoza during last years transfer portal on this very site....Bailey has shown potential & upside and put up good numbers as a two year starter in the ACC, THATS why hes on our radar not because hes from Miami.... & BTW there are question marks with all the QBs in the portal this year, ALL OF EM, not saying Bailey is definitively the best option but the Cam Ward/Will Howard types are absent this year.
 
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