CFP Scenarios

[TrumpyCane]

Full disclosure, TrumpyCane doesn't think we get in for numerous reasons. First being its doubtful we win out based off the last 3 weeks, and we need to win 4 games in blowout fashion

Going to skip talking about OSU, Indiana, A&M, UGA, Bama because even with 2 losses TrumpyCane thinks they get in. Bolded teams are losable games

6. Ole Miss: Citadel, Florida, Miss State
Ole Miss has shown they can blow games. UF has already taken out Texas and came close to beating UGA. Miss State/Ole Miss always play tough

7. BYU: Texas Tech, TCU, Cinci, UCF

TrumpyCane assumes we want Texas Tech to win this weekend and hopefully win the Big 12. Cinci and TCU are all loseable games for them

8. Texas Tech: BYU, UCF, WVU

We want TT to win out and win the Big 12

9. Oregon: Iowa, USC, Minn, Washington
1 loss should knock Oregon down, they haven't looked great this year and our resume tops theirs,

10. Notre Dame

Pitt, Navy, Cuse, Stanford

We need Pitt because the rest of their schedule is a joke

11. Texas: UGA, Arkansas, A&M
Texas is out with any loss and don't see them winning out

12. Oklahoma: Bama, Mizz, LSU
Same as Texas

13. Utah: Baylor, Kansas State, Kansas
TrumpyCane thinks Baylor beats Utah in 2 weeks but Utah of any team in front of us has by far the easiest schedule

14. UVA: Wake, Duke, VT
UVA is 100% losing 1 of these games, **** they might lose all 3, we need them badly to lose 2/3

15. Louisville: Cal, Clemson, SMU, Kentucky
Another team that will definitely drop 1 more game but again the issue is we need them to drop 2 ACC games

16. Vanderbilt: Auburn, Kentucky, Tenn

Don't see Vandy winning out

17. Georgia Tech: BC, Pitt, UGA

That UGA game could decide our season if GT wins out


19. USC: Northwestern, Oregon, Iowa, UCLA

USC will be a massive issue if they win out which is unlikely, a positive is we have a win over ND while they lost

20. Iowa: Oregon, USC, MSU, Nebraska

Doubt they win out, we need Iowa to cause mayhem though

TrumpyCane not going to go over the lower ranked teams because TrumpyCane doesn't think any win out or would jump us if we won out.

Obviously the interesting team is Pitt, we need them to beat ND and GT, we would even take a split with ND being the more important win, but we are rooting for them to win so if we win out it will set up a top 17/8 matchup last game of the season


TrumpyCane has said in other posts that the same ol story will happen, we will find a way to be 9-2 with that Pitt game to decide our playoff chances and we will proceed to crap down our legs, it's just science at this point

 

[Go Canes!!]

Texas with two losses and two OT wins over putrid opponents being ranked 11 is pathetic.

 

[TrumpyCane]

Texas with two losses and two OT wins over putrid opponents being ranked 11 is pathetic.

Luckily we don't have to worry about the, TrumpyCane doesn't see how they win out with that schedule

 

[Kn[]_[]ckles3o5]

Luckily we don't have to worry about the, TrumpyCane doesn't see how they win out with that schedule

That is why they are up there, just to bolster the resumes of the teams they lose to eventually.

For the record I think we would like BYU to win out, be undefeated and the sole Big12 rep

 

[Ispyin]

Texas with two losses and two OT wins over putrid opponents being ranked 11 is pathetic.

I don't disagree BUT this is part of why- things they do look at in some part:

 

[TouchMoney26]

I think if we win by 30 plus every game then we have a case

But we all know thats not our style to run up the score unfortunately

 

[StevoBevo]

If SMU and Louisville win out + us winning out (+ Pitt beating ND) would help our case.

UGA losing 1 more before GT and then losing to GT (with GT losing to Pitt & beating UGA) would also be massive.

Syracuse/Nc state & VT need to be blowout wins and we need to look like we righted the ship. Whether we want to acknowledge it or not the EYE test is heavily valued and so is “quality losses”. So imo we can’t just hope for our opponents to keep losing because that makes OUR LOSS to them look worse.

I am NOT expecting or even hoping for the ACC championship. If we win the next 4 and Pitt beats ND & GT then they’re a top 15 team in the CFP when we play them. That would give us wins against: ND/USF(could very easily be ranked at the end of the year)/UF @Pitt (a ranked Pitt team) & @FSU. Our resume would ABSOLUTELY be good enough.

What’s funny is id have WAY more faith in Mario to beat a top 15 Pitt team then I do beating an Unranked Pitt team.

LOTS of chaos that can transpire between now and the final week…lots need to happen but fortunately a lot CAN happen.

I’d rather be an optimist until in absolutely forced to concede that our playoff chances are gone.

 

[Cane30]

Breakdown the film, this team will struggle to score points the rest of the season. Mario doesn't trust any position on his O. He doesn't trust any of his 2nd string on D, so we have a non attacking, tortoise offense and he's scared our starting D is going to be on the field to long. This is the most experienced team he will ever have, here. I see us losing to NCST and Pitt. Next years roster will be way, way less experienced and it really starts getting ugly next year with 5 more years left on his contract. This was it and he completely failed without an excuse. Their will be no playoff this year or next. I don't want to think beyond that ugliness. I am a realist. Tape doesn't lie. 134th in penalties.

 

[OrangeBowlMagic]

Breakdown the film, this team will struggle to score points the rest of the season. Mario doesn't trust any position on his O. He doesn't trust any of his 2nd string on D, so we have a non attacking, tortoise offense and he's scared our starting D is going to be on the field to long. This is the most experienced team he will ever have, here. I see us losing to NCST and Pitt. Next years roster will be way, way less experienced and it really starts getting ugly next year with 5 more years left on his contract. This was it and he completely failed without an excuse. Their will be no playoff this year or next. I don't want to think beyond that ugliness. I am a realist. Tape doesn't lie. 134th in penalties.

Do we have to do this in literally every single thread? I get it. We get it. But Jesus, there are 50 threads for this. If folks want to talk path forward on playoffs, do it. There are multiple threads where we're all crushing Mario, and there should be. But does every single thread that's started have to say the same ****? Some of us enjoy the sport as a whole, and Miami specifically. There are still 5 weeks of football left. I'm going to consume as much of it as I can, because we don't get this but for about 25% of the calendar.

 

[cway313]

Do we have to do this in literally every single thread? I get it. We get it. But Jesus, there are 50 threads for this. If folks want to talk path forward on playoffs, do it. There are multiple threads where we're all crushing Mario, and there should be. But does every single thread that's started have to say the same ****? Some of us enjoy the sport as a whole, and Miami specifically. There are still 5 weeks of football left. I'm going to consume as much of it as I can, because we don't get this but for about 25% of the calendar.

Yes.

 

[ST26]

If SMU and Louisville win out + us winning out (+ Pitt beating ND) would help our case.

UGA losing 1 more before GT and then losing to GT (with GT losing to Pitt & beating UGA) would also be massive.

Syracuse/Nc state & VT need to be blowout wins and we need to look like we righted the ship. Whether we want to acknowledge it or not the EYE test is heavily valued and so is “quality losses”. So imo we can’t just hope for our opponents to keep losing because that makes OUR LOSS to them look worse.

I am NOT expecting or even hoping for the ACC championship. If we win the next 4 and Pitt beats ND & GT then they’re a top 15 team in the CFP when we play them. That would give us wins against: ND/USF(could very easily be ranked at the end of the year)/UF @Pitt (a ranked Pitt team) & @FSU. Our resume would ABSOLUTELY be good enough.

What’s funny is id have WAY more faith in Mario to beat a top 15 Pitt team then I do beating an Unranked Pitt team.

LOTS of chaos that can transpire between now and the final week…lots need to happen but fortunately a lot CAN happen.

I’d rather be an optimist until in absolutely forced to concede that our playoff chances are gone.

We desperately need Louisville to win out and be the ACC Champs

 

[OrangeBowlMagic]

So what, we want Auburn to upset Vandy this week, right?

We want Wake to upset UVA?

That's about all I see this week that would impact anything that's feasible. Or I guess maybe BYU upsetting Texas Tech?

 

[Yoyo423]

Breakdown the film, this team will struggle to score points the rest of the season. Mario doesn't trust any position on his O. He doesn't trust any of his 2nd string on D, so we have a non attacking, tortoise offense and he's scared our starting D is going to be on the field to long. This is the most experienced team he will ever have, here. I see us losing to NCST and Pitt. Next years roster will be way, way less experienced and it really starts getting ugly next year with 5 more years left on his contract. This was it and he completely failed without an excuse. Their will be no playoff this year or next. I don't want to think beyond that ugliness. I am a realist. Tape doesn't lie. 134th in penalties.

Bleak...

 

[TrumpyCane]

So what, we want Auburn to upset Vandy this week, right?

We want Wake to upset UVA?

That's about all I see this week that would impact anything that's feasible. Or I guess maybe BYU upsetting Texas Tech?

LSU beating Alabama would also be great in TrumpyCanes opinion

 

[OrangeBowlMagic]

LSU beating Alabama would also be great in TrumpyCanes opinion

True. Bama would have to lose twice though to drop out, and depending which two they were, they still might have 9-3 Bama ahead of us. I'm with you though, if we're dropping a full wish list, add this one on there. Also just cause **** bama.

 

[ST26]

So what, we want Auburn to upset Vandy this week, right?

We want Wake to upset UVA?

That's about all I see this week that would impact anything that's feasible. Or I guess maybe BYU upsetting Texas Tech?

A UVA regular-season loss, along with Georgia beating GT, would be massive. That way, if Louisville wins the ACC championship, the loser is done. I'm not sure how they decide that tie breaker, but let's say Virginia loses in the ACC Championship. I would think the committee would put us in over a 2-loss GT team

 

[ST26]

This is the way I view it. There are 7 automatic bids- SEC Champ, ACC Champ, B10 Champ, B12 Champ, Power 5 team, second place SEC team and second place b10 team.

That obviously leaves 5 spots. If ND and Oregon win out, they will be in. The last three are wildcards. I could see one ACC, one b12 and one more SEC. However, it literally could be any variation. Heck, even Michigan isn't out if it. If they win out, they're in

 

[OrangeBowlMagic]

This is the way I view it. There are 7 automatic bids- SEC Champ, ACC Champ, B10 Champ, B12 Champ, Power 5 team, second place SEC team and second place b10 team.

That obviously leaves 5 spots. If ND and Oregon win out, they will be in. The last three are wildcards. I could see one ACC, one b12 and one more SEC. However, it literally could be any variation. Heck, even Michigan isn't out if it. If they win out, they're in

Correct, but not to be a pain in the ***, but the rule is actually "five highest conference champions". Says nothing about Power 4. So, there is a scenario where B1G, SEC, Big 12, Sun Belt, and American are the 5 highest ranked, and the ACC gets *NOBODY* in.

Regardless though, that's another discussion, your overall numbers are correct. 5 auto-bids are in, and we're not getting any of those. SEC and B1G championship game losers are in.

So there's only 5 spots left. 2 of those will almost certainly be filled by 3rd place SEC and 3rd place B1G.

The way I see it, there's 3 spots up for grabs between ACC #2, ND, SEC #4, B1G #4 and Big 12 #2.

There will be 5 teams for 3 spots, IMO.

 

[Calinative]

Breakdown the film, this team will struggle to score points the rest of the season. Mario doesn't trust any position on his O. He doesn't trust any of his 2nd string on D, so we have a non attacking, tortoise offense and he's scared our starting D is going to be on the field to long. This is the most experienced team he will ever have, here. I see us losing to NCST and Pitt. Next years roster will be way, way less experienced and it really starts getting ugly next year with 5 more years left on his contract. This was it and he completely failed without an excuse. Their will be no playoff this year or next. I don't want to think beyond that ugliness. I am a realist. Tape doesn't lie. 134th in penalties.

Not trusting the players is exactly the problem that has killed this season.

Pretend you trust them and tell the players we're going to bule ultra aggressive and if you execute we will dominate. What the **** is the point of playing conservative at this point when that literally just lost us 2 games we shouldn't have? Lie to yourself so much that you actually believe that this QB, WR group, CBs, and DLine depth are elite. Literally just play as if that is the case. It's quite simple.

 

[LeanMeanOrangeGreen]

Texas with two losses and two OT wins over putrid opponents being ranked 11 is pathetic.

But they beat big bad Vanderbilt who beat big bad Missouri who beat big bad…Kansas. It’s always nice to have a system that over ranks your weak opponents so if you win, you move up 8 spots and if you lose, you only drop 3. SEC bias is real.