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CFP moving to 24 teams

RF-4CCane said:
The one thing to take into consideration in comparing last years records, to those going forward, is this is the first year of the SEC with 9 conference games.

If you add in that all P4 teams must play a P4 OOC game, there will potentially be an additional 2 “tougher” games for a few SEC programs and 1 additional “tougher” game for Big 10 programs like Indiana, who haven't played a P4 OOC since 2024.

If we look at 2007, where a 2 loss team won the NC, there would have been ten 3 loss and one 4 loss team, in a 24 team playoff.*

Arguably with the 9 conference games and 1 obligatory P4 game, schedules forward could be more difficult than those 2007 teams played. LSU had 2 losses while playing 1 P4 OOC, 8 SEC games and 3 cream puffs.

Almost all of the ten 3 loss teams played 3 crème puff games.

So three or four 4 loss teams and 8-10 three loss teams is possible under this scenario.

*Rankings pre CCG, with Hawaii & Boise State being G5 rep’s.
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Yeah this year will give us good data with all of that, except it won’t be as many added games as that.

For example, Alabama played Wisconsin and FSU last year in addition to their eight conference games. 2024 Alabama only had Wisconsin.

Georgia only played nine p4 teams in 2025, yet they played ten in 2024 (GT + Clemson). UGA played UNC/GT, Oregon/GT, Two years of ND/GT, and another Clemson/GT in the years prior to that with Only GT years mixed in between.

That is the one caveat to see how it switches up the calculus, however, for us for example, we had a harder schedule last year (8 ACC games + UF, ND, and a ranked eventual 9-win USF) then 9+@ND this year.

The only P4 teams who are not playing Ten p4 opponents are USC, Nebraska, Indiana, Washington and Penn State. The latter two are trash, but the first two, desperate to make the playoffs, may finesse themselves to a 9-3 record. Riley went 9-3 last year tho, losing to ND OOC.

Indiana is a buncha cowards however one extra loss the last two years would’ve been fine for them.

Oregon basically plays eleven p4 teams considering the level Boise is playing at this year. The five teams playing eleven p4 games are Louisville, GT, Purdue, BC, and Colorado.

Almost all of the ten 3 loss teams played 3 crème puff games.
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In 2024 here are the three loss teams: Colorado played ten p4 teams including B1G Nebraska who is a rival. BYU did as well, including beating 11-1 SMU. Iowa State too, beating Iowa. Two loss ASU played ten as well: beating Mississippi State. 8-4 Baylor played ten p4 opponents too, because they had Utah on their schedule prior to them joining their conference (so Utah played 10 too).

9-3 Syracuse played 8-4 UCONN (a rival who beat UNC in the bowl game) and 10-2 UNLV. No p4 OOC opponents. Clemson had UGA + South Carolina. 2024 SMU had BYU + TCU.

Alabama and Ole Miss had three cupcakes like you said in 2024. Ole Miss’ schedule was even worse in 2025; although Tulane unexpectedly was a playoff squad while Wazzu only lost by a FG. Missouri had three cupcakes.

9-3 Illinois played Kansas, who was ranked 19th at the time.

Didn’t check the 3 loss 2025 teams however as I typed out for ‘24 it’s a bit of a mixed bag.

I think occasionally there may be 1-2 4 loss teams competing with 10-2 or 11-1 g6 squads on the fringes for the last spots. Really can’t envision a scenario where the last eight or so teams that qualify are primarily 4 loss squads.

The ACC and XII will benefit the most imo.
 
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Im usually all for more games with something big on the line, i liked the playin idea for the nba, the in season tournament is gimmicky but has worked

But this just feels like a soulless move for cfb
 
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