No. 25 Miami Hurricanes at No. 12 North Carolina Tar Heels (7:30 p.m., ABC)
In 2013, Miami won its first six games of the season to move to seventh in the AP poll. It was the Hurricanes' highest ranking since 2005, and it set up the biggest FSU-Miami game in years. FSU scored 34 of the game's final 41 points to win easily. Reeling following the disappointment, Miami lost as a favorite to Virginia Tech, then to Duke. In 2014 and 2016, losses to the Seminoles prompted four-game losing streaks.
In 2017, unbeaten and ranked second, Miami lost to underdog Pitt, then got stomped by Clemson in the ACC championship game and fell to Wisconsin in the Orange Bowl. In 2018, the Canes lost to underdog Virginia, then lost as favorites to Boston College and Duke as part of a four-game losing streak.
On it went. In 2019, Miami lost as a three-touchdown favorite to Florida International, then lost as the favorite against Duke and Louisiana Tech too. In 2021, it lost at home to underdog Michigan State, then lost its next two against FBS opponents. In 2022, the Hurricanes got their doors blown off -- as 25.5-point favorites! -- by Middle Tennessee, then failed to cover in six straight and slowly crashed to 5-7.
It's one of college football's most reliable trends: No one lets an unexpected and/or devastating loss linger longer than the ever-fragile Miami Hurricanes. What happens now that they've suffered what
Dan Le Batard called "the worst loss in program history," a shocking and
completely self-inflicted 23-20 defeat to Georgia Tech?
If we ignore all context, the Canes and North Carolina are wonderfully even. They are 17th and 18th, respectively, in SP+, which projects the home Tar Heels as 2-point favorites, and both could have major roles to play in the ACC title race. UNC's passing game, led by future first-rounder
Drake Maye, is impeccable, but barring the last two plays Saturday night, so is Miami's pass defense. An efficient Miami run game, meanwhile, could punish a suspect UNC defensive front, and while UM quarterback
Tyler Van Dyke was surprisingly poor Saturday -- three interceptions and a season-low 7.5 yards per dropback -- he's still 10th in Total QBR, barely behind the ninth-place Maye. If this were a normal team, we'd be talking about bounce-back opportunities and a dynamite quarterback matchup. But for better and often worse, Miami can never be normal.
Is it time to finally be different? Is Mario who he says he is? Is he truly a program leader? A culture changer?
The trend is there. Everything in our recent history suggests we lose this game. Everybody is picking us to lose (besides Josh Pate). The fans are giving up.
But I think this team is different.
We'll find out tonight in not only our most important game this season, but maybe since 2017.
Canes win big.
42-24!
