We can't convert 3rd & 1; why should Richt run the ball all day?
Understandable.
I'm feeling lazy to explain myself coherently here, but try and follow. tl;dr...I'm not saying Miami should run on 3rd down, its 1st and 2nd down Miami should be running more. A less than coherent explanation below...
We aren't often even in a position to convert 3rd and 1s.
When we are, our power success rate (run attempts of 3rd/4th and 1/2 that are stuffed) is of the lowest in the nation in 2017. It was bad. I don't have the raw data in front of me, but our raw total here is likely very low...our personnel, especially on the interior, has been particularly poor, if I were to dole out blame.
One of these days, I'll run a full analysis and acquire some data, but I'd hypothesize we far too often are in 3rd and 8, 3rd and 7, 3rd and 11. For example - against LSU, we averaged 3rd and 9 throughout the game. We'll run on first down, pick up 2-3, throw on second and long...and Rosier, being Rosier will throw something ridiculous incomplete...leaving us with 3rd and Rosier. I have a feeling that scenario happens far more than any of us would like to admit, but I don't have any data to back it up at the moment.
But you are right, when we are in 3rd and 4th and short, its stuffed pretty regularly last year. But that isn't what I care about.
Now, for some weird stats...because I suggest Miami should run more on 1st AND 2nd down.
Miami was pretty good (14th in the nation) in Opportunity Rate (a metric that measures a down of at least five yards where the RB gets at least five yards...an "offensive line does it job" metric). It tells me Miami should have run more on first and second down (and down and behind the sticks scenarios - ex: 2nd and 11) because they did very well. 43% of Miami's carries in a down and distance of five or more got at least five yards...thats very good. Alabama had 45%, Clemson 42%, Ohio State 46% for comparison. Miami is in good company. Miami should be running more on 1st and 2nd down...it'll set up Miami to avoid critical ****** 3rd down scenarios and it'll shorten the game in Miami's favor.
Miami doesn't string together a lot of long drives...only 163 total 3rd downs (T-111th in the nation)...TOP correlates this. I've been saying for a long time, Miami needs to run more to one...have more drives that eat up some clock. Miami is also near the bottom of the nation in 3 and outs. Somewhere around 25% in 2016 and 2017. I'd hyperbolize its because of what I stated above. Yeah, lack of 3rd and 1/2 run attempts and conversions is big here. There aren't many of them and the few we have had, are stuffed. But we also aren't putting our offense in a position to convert 3rd and short through the air either, and that, to me, is a big problem with the offense.