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By The Numbers

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we’ve been a joke for 2 decades. The Mario hire was a Hail Mary. Major investment and bringing in a coach who built a good program out in Oregon. If this doesn’t work it will be back to first time head coaches or retreads. Toxic fan base, some of the worst media in the country, no home stadium, zero investment until recently, and minimal fan base. This job isn’t as appealing as many make it out to be.
 
PennsylvaniaCane said:
we’ve been a joke for 2 decades. The Mario hire was a Hail Mary. Major investment and bringing in a coach who built a good program out in Oregon. If this doesn’t work it will be back to first time head coaches or retreads. Toxic fan base, some of the worst media in the country, no home stadium, zero investment until recently, and minimal fan base. This job isn’t as appealing as many make it out to be.
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This is not a great job to take unlike some here I know this has to work with Mario or we are gonna have to accept mediocrity bc that’s about all we will be after him. I truly believe if he can’t do it nobody can. Tell me I’m wrong but what HC would want to come here after Mario if he gets canned lol
 
PennsylvaniaCane said:
we’ve been a joke for 2 decades. The Mario hire was a Hail Mary. Major investment and bringing in a coach who built a good program out in Oregon. If this doesn’t work it will be back to first time head coaches or retreads. Toxic fan base, some of the worst media in the country, no home stadium, zero investment until recently, and minimal fan base. This job isn’t as appealing as many make it out to be.
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Mike Bellotti built Oregon, not Mario.

Every single Coach since 1994, except Willie Taggart (who was there only for 1 year), had success at Oregon.
 
canes732 said:
This is not a great job to take unlike some here I know this has to work with Mario or we are gonna have to accept mediocrity bc that’s about all we will be after him. I truly believe if he can’t do it nobody can. Tell me I’m wrong but what HC would want to come here after Mario if he gets canned lol
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Trust me, offer enough money & you’d be surprised how many Coaches would leap at the opportunity to Coach here.

Coaches don’t give AF about the stuff that fans think they do, put enough money on the table & they’ll overlook all that sh*t to come here. Remember, Coaches contracts are guaranteed, so they get paid either way.
 
Memnon said:
Mike Bellotti built Oregon, not Mario.

Every single Coach since 1994, except Willie Taggart (who was there only for 1 year), had success at Oregon.
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Rich Brooks laid a nice foundation.
 
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Memnon said:
Trust me, offer enough money & you’d be surprised how many Coaches would leap at the opportunity to Coach here.

Coaches don’t give AF about the stuff that fans think they do, put enough money on the table & they’ll overlook all that sh*t to come here. Remember, Coaches contracts are guaranteed, so they get paid either way.
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I can think of about 30-40 schools that if you offered the same $ a coach would choose the other school. Caveat to that are alumni situations like Mario. Any coach that is chasing the money is a coach you don’t want around your program.
 
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BS85 said:
Every human alive chases money, nothing wrong with that
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As a professional your reputation means more than a paycheck. Mario isn’t here because of the money, he’s here because he believes he can turn this around. There is no way he would have left Oregon for here if he wasn’t an alumni. Same reason he didn’t go to Auburn or wait for the Alabama job to open up.
 
Rellyrell said:
⚠️ Long, analytical post that may offend! ⚠️​

The off-season is fun, isn’t it? It’s a time where renewed hope, & optimism is abundant. It’s a time to get our hopes up on every 5-star recruit who comes to visit our campus. It’s a time where those around the program serve their annual Kool-Aid filled with more sugar than a Krispy Kreme Donut. Regardless of how the previous season transpires, the off-season is by far the best part of being a Canes’ fan for the last 20 years.

However, the off-season brings about something else: Excuses. Listen folks, I’m the guy who wrote a best-seller post calling for patience when Mario was first hired. I figured year one would be a struggle, but not a 5-7 struggle. Quite frankly, it was inexcusable to be that putrid last season, yet we heard all the excuses as to why. Now we’re 6-3; @PIPO was crucified for saying we’re closer to a 4-4 team than 6-2, but any objective fan would’ve agreed.

Regardless, Mario is an $8m/yr man; to put in context, not only is he the highest paid coach, BY FAR, in our program’s history, but he’s making more annually than both Richt/Diaz combined. (Keep that in mind as we examine some stats).

Mario’s predecessor’s record after 21 games:
Shannon: 11-10
Golden: 11-10
Richt: 17-4
Diaz: 13-8
Cristobal: 11-10

Mario’s predecessor’s ACC record after 21 games:
Shannon: 5-8
Golden: 7-7
Richt: 11-4
Diaz: 10-5
Cristobal: 5-8

Mario’s predecessor’s wins vs. opponent’s combined record after 21 Games (Percentage):
Shannon: 11 wins (opponents’ combined win% .373)
Golden: 11 wins (opponents’ combined win% .500)
Richt: 17 wins (opponents’ combined win% .523)
Diaz: 13 wins (opponents’ combined win% .548)
Cristobal: 11 wins (opponents’ combined win% .396)

Mario’s predecessor’s recruiting class rankings (3 cycles):
Shannon: #13, #1, #16
Golden: #32, #10, #15
Richt: #22, #13, #8
Diaz: #17, #11, #11
Cristobal: #13, #8, #11* (*2024 cycle not finished)

Previous HC Coaches who are making $8m+/yr at new school’s record in yr 2:
-Saban: Yr 1: 7-5 / Yr 2: 12-2

-Tucker*: Yr 1: 2-5 / Yr 2: 11-2 (*now fired)

-Riley*: Yr 1: 11-3 / Yr 2: 7-3 (*season in progress)

-Kelly: Yr 1: 10-4 / Yr 2: 6-3* (*season in progress)

-Fisher: Yr 1: 9-4 / Yr 2: 8-5

-Kiffin: Yr 1: 8-5 / Yr 2: 10-2 (USC) ; Yr 1: 5-5 / Yr 2: 10-3 (Ole Miss)

-Heupel: Yr 1: 7-6 / Yr 2: 11-2

-Franklin: Yr 1: 7-6 / Yr 2: 7-6

-Harbaugh: Yr 1: 10-3 / Yr 2: 10-3

-Cristobal: Yr 1: 5-7 / Yr 2: 6-3* (*season in progress)

A little context, if you will (since we all love context):
Out of the $8m+ coaches on this list, only Riley, Kelly, & Cristobal signed $8m+ contracts upon being hired. Saban, Tucker, Heupel, Franklin, Harbaugh, & Fisher all signed extensions after winning seasons, although Fisher did sign for $7.5m upon leaving FSU.

So what do these numbers tell us? Well, so far the numbers say:

1. Cristobal’s results, thus far, are not in harmony with his peers who are in his salary bracket.

2. Cristobal is showing eerily similar trends, traits, projections as Randy Shannon.

3. Randy & Cristobal racked up their 11 wins against putrid competition, while struggling mightily against teams who were competitive. In fact, let’s examine both Randy & Mario’s “hallmark wins”:

In 2007 & 2008, Randy Shannon beat a then #16 TAMU team at home (2007), & TAMU on the road the following season (2008). That 2007 TAMU team finished 7-6, while 2008’s version finished 4-8.

In 2023, Mario beat TAMU & Clemson at home. Both teams are now 5-4 on the season, currently.

I was interested to see if this trend w/ Mario (thus far) is an anomaly or something to take notice of throughout his coaching tenure:

Mario’s wins v. opponents’ combined winning% (FIU):
Total wins: 27
Opponents’ win% in those 27 victories: .287

Mario’s wins v. opponents’ combined winning% (UO):
Total wins: 35
Opponents’ win% in those 35 victories: .496

While at Oregon, particularly 2019, his team did much better against solid competition, with 2021 being his marquee victory against a very good OSU team on the road who finished w/ 11 victories. However, the scary trend is while at Oregon his teams tended to struggle against well coached programs despite the talent advantage. What makes this more alarming is that while at UO, he had a huge talent discrepancy against all but one opponent he faced (OSU). Oregon’s avg. class rankings from 2018-21 was 10th; the next closest school in the PAC-12 during that period was UW w/ an avg. class rank of 19th.

This leads me to this conclusion: These are merely numbers, and while numbers tell a story, they don’t tell the full story. I typically like to see how a coach fare by yr 3. For instance, while at ND, Kelly was fairly mediocre years 1 & 2, but by year 3, he had ND in the BCS Championship game. Dabo was pedestrian years 1 & 2 at Clemson, but by year 3 he had them as a perennial 10+ win program. Kiffin at FAU was great year 1, horrible yr 2, & by yr 3, he got called by Ole Miss to take over due to another great year at FAU

With that said, however I can’t ignore this fact:
Kelly was 13-8 after 21 games at ND (opponents’ win% .557)

Swinney was 13-8 after 21 games at Clemson (opponents’ win% .490)

Kiffin was 14-7 after 21 games at FAU (opponents’ win%. 493)

Cristobal is now 11-10 w/ his opponents’ combined winning % at .396. Comparatively he’s faced easier opponents vs. the aforementioned coaches, yet he’s still struggling. That’s what scares me.

Hopefully we can win out, but trends and projections say we may go 1-2 to end the season, & quite possibly 0-3. Here’s hoping Mario becomes more like his peers who’s earning his level of salary, & get off the projection of becoming next Randy.
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Ughh, Mario is the Cuban Radio... identical but $7.5 million more per year
 
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PennsylvaniaCane said:
As a professional your reputation means more than a paycheck. Mario isn’t here because of the money, he’s here because he believes he can turn this around. There is no way he would have left Oregon for here if he wasn’t an alumni. Same reason he didn’t go to Auburn or wait for the Alabama job to open up.
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Mario isn't here for the money, but it took $8M to lure him from Oregon.
Jennifer Lawrence Reaction GIF
 
PennsylvaniaCane said:
I can think of about 30-40 schools that if you offered the same $ a coach would choose the other school. Caveat to that are alumni situations like Mario. Any coach that is chasing the money is a coach you don’t want around your program.
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Point taken, but it isn't 30-40 other schools. Might be debatable at 5-10 actually.
 
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