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By The Numbers

PIPO said:
Brother - I appreciate the shout out.

This is amazing analysis and information. It may not seem like lately but I am an optimist. It’s harder to be when it comes to the Canes, especially these last 20 years and these first 2 years of Mario.

Now, hoping we pull of a miracle vs either FSU or Louisville (both better coached) and hopefully this ship changes course into the right direction, as unlikely as it may seem based on the data you posted.
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So am I, which is y I said I like to see yr 3, but the projections & parallels to Randy Shannon is striking af. We must close strong recruiting, & we must continue to be better in all 3 phases of the game, not just one or two, but all 3. I’m still not throwing in the towel, but I am throwing in the towel on the excuses & justifications given.
 
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Rellyrell said:
⚠️ Long, analytical post that may offend! ⚠️​

The off-season is fun, isn’t it? It’s a time where renewed hope, & optimism is abundant. It’s a time to get our hopes up on every 5-star recruit who comes to visit our campus. It’s a time where those around the program serve their annual Kool-Aid filled with more sugar than a Krispy Kreme Donut. Regardless of how the previous season transpires, the off-season is by far the best part of being a Canes’ fan for the last 20 years.

However, the off-season brings about something else: Excuses. Listen folks, I’m the guy who wrote a best-seller post calling for patience when Mario was first hired. I figured year one would be a struggle, but not a 5-7 struggle. Quite frankly, it was inexcusable to be that putrid last season, yet we heard all the excuses as to why. Now we’re 6-3; @PIPO was crucified for saying we’re closer to a 4-4 team than 6-2, but any objective fan would’ve agreed.

Regardless, Mario is an $8m/yr man; to put in context, not only is he the highest paid coach, BY FAR, in our program’s history, but he’s making more annually than both Richt/Diaz combined. (Keep that in mind as we examine some stats).

Mario’s predecessor’s record after 21 games:
Shannon: 11-10
Golden: 11-10
Richt: 17-4
Diaz: 13-8
Cristobal: 11-10

Mario’s predecessor’s ACC record after 21 games:
Shannon: 5-8
Golden: 7-7
Richt: 11-4
Diaz: 10-5
Cristobal: 5-8

Mario’s predecessor’s wins vs. opponent’s combined record after 21 Games (Percentage):
Shannon: 11 wins (opponents’ combined win% .373)
Golden: 11 wins (opponents’ combined win% .500)
Richt: 17 wins (opponents’ combined win% .523)
Diaz: 13 wins (opponents’ combined win% .548)
Cristobal: 11 wins (opponents’ combined win% .396)

Mario’s predecessor’s recruiting class rankings (3 cycles):
Shannon: #13, #1, #16
Golden: #32, #10, #15
Richt: #22, #13, #8
Diaz: #17, #11, #11
Cristobal: #13, #8, #11* (*2024 cycle not finished)

Previous HC Coaches who are making $8m+/yr at new school’s record in yr 2:
-Saban: Yr 1: 7-5 / Yr 2: 12-2

-Tucker*: Yr 1: 2-5 / Yr 2: 11-2 (*now fired)

-Riley*: Yr 1: 11-3 / Yr 2: 7-3 (*season in progress)

-Kelly: Yr 1: 10-4 / Yr 2: 6-3* (*season in progress)

-Fisher: Yr 1: 9-4 / Yr 2: 8-5

-Kiffin: Yr 1: 8-5 / Yr 2: 10-2 (USC) ; Yr 1: 5-5 / Yr 2: 10-3 (Ole Miss)

-Heupel: Yr 1: 7-6 / Yr 2: 11-2

-Franklin: Yr 1: 7-6 / Yr 2: 7-6

-Harbaugh: Yr 1: 10-3 / Yr 2: 10-3

-Cristobal: Yr 1: 5-7 / Yr 2: 6-3* (*season in progress)

A little context, if you will (since we all love context):
Out of the $8m+ coaches on this list, only Riley, Kelly, & Cristobal signed $8m+ contracts upon being hired. Saban, Tucker, Heupel, Franklin, Harbaugh, & Fisher all signed extensions after winning seasons, although Fisher did sign for $7.5m upon leaving FSU.

So what do these numbers tell us? Well, so far the numbers say:

1. Cristobal results, thus far, are not in harmony with his peers who are in his salary bracket.

2. Cristobal is showing eerily similar trends, traits, projections as Randy Shannon.

3. Randy & Cristobal racked up their 11 wins against putrid competition, while struggling mightily against teams who were competitive. In fact, let’s examine both Randy & Mario’s “hallmark wins”:

In 2007 & 2008, Randy Shannon beat a then #16 TAMU team at home (2007), & TAMU on the road the following season (2008). That 2007 TAMU team finished 7-6, while 2008’s version finished 4-8.

In 2023, Mario beat TAMU & Clemson at home. Both teams are now 5-4 on the season, currently.

I was interested to see if this trend w/ Mario (thus far) is an anomaly or something to take notice of throughout his coaching tenure:

Mario’s wins v. opponents’ combined winning% (FIU):
Total wins: 27
Opponents’ win% in those 27 victories: .287

Mario’s wins v. opponents’ combined winning% (UO):
Total wins: 35
Opponents’ win% in those 35 victories: .496

While at Oregon, particularly 2019, his team did much better against solid competition, with 2021 being his marquee victory against a very good OSU team on the road who finished w/ 11 victories. However, the scary trend is while at Oregon his teams tended to struggle against well coached programs despite the talent advantage. What makes this more alarming is that while at UO, he had a huge talent discrepancy against all but one opponent he faced (OSU). Oregon’s avg. class rankings from 2018-21 was 10th; the next closest school in the PAC-12 during that period was UW w/ an avg. class rank of 19th.

This leads me to this conclusion: These are merely numbers, and while numbers tell a story, they don’t tell the full story. I typically like to see how a coach fare by yr 3. For instance, while at ND, Kelly was fairly mediocre years 1 & 2, but by year 3, he had ND in the BCS Championship game. Dabo was pedestrian years 1 & 2 at Clemson, but by year 3 he had them as a perennial 10+ win program. Kiffin at FAU was great year 1, horrible yr 2, & by yr 3, he got called by Ole Miss to take over due to another great year at FAU

With that said, however I can’t ignore this fact:
Kelly was 13-8 after 21 games at ND (opponents’ win% .557)

Swinney was 13-8 after 21 games at Clemson (opponents’ win% .490)

Kiffin was 14-7 after 21 games at FAU (opponents’ win%. 493)

Cristobal is now 11-10 w/ his opponents’ combined winning % at .396. Comparatively he’s faced easier opponents vs. the aforementioned coaches, yet he’s still struggling. That’s what scares me.

Hopefully we can win out, but trends and projections say we may go 1-2 to end the season, & quite possibly 0-3. Here’s hoping Mario becomes more like his peers who’s earning his level of salary, & get off the projection of becoming next Randy.
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Great analysis. Strap in boys he’s here till at the least mid way thru year 4 maybe even into year 5. No chance they cut ties after year 3 I imagine
 
Rellyrell said:
So what is $8m giving us?
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I'll white knight. The thing that it gives us is a coach who can go with hat in hand to the rich people who said it was "Cristobal or bust" and didn't consider any other coach. He can beg them to save his reputation by giving him tens of millions of NIL money so he can get the best players from the portal in the offseason. The big money donors are responsible for him. They owe it to him to give him what he's asking , and more importantly, they owe it to us for being forced to watch the Bro Raid.
 
Rellyrell said:
⚠️ Long, analytical post that may offend! ⚠️​

The off-season is fun, isn’t it? It’s a time where renewed hope, & optimism is abundant. It’s a time to get our hopes up on every 5-star recruit who comes to visit our campus. It’s a time where those around the program serve their annual Kool-Aid filled with more sugar than a Krispy Kreme Donut. Regardless of how the previous season transpires, the off-season is by far the best part of being a Canes’ fan for the last 20 years.

However, the off-season brings about something else: Excuses. Listen folks, I’m the guy who wrote a best-seller post calling for patience when Mario was first hired. I figured year one would be a struggle, but not a 5-7 struggle. Quite frankly, it was inexcusable to be that putrid last season, yet we heard all the excuses as to why. Now we’re 6-3; @PIPO was crucified for saying we’re closer to a 4-4 team than 6-2, but any objective fan would’ve agreed.

Regardless, Mario is an $8m/yr man; to put in context, not only is he the highest paid coach, BY FAR, in our program’s history, but he’s making more annually than both Richt/Diaz combined. (Keep that in mind as we examine some stats).

Mario’s predecessor’s record after 21 games:
Shannon: 11-10
Golden: 11-10
Richt: 17-4
Diaz: 13-8
Cristobal: 11-10

Mario’s predecessor’s ACC record after 21 games:
Shannon: 5-8
Golden: 7-7
Richt: 11-4
Diaz: 10-5
Cristobal: 5-8

Mario’s predecessor’s wins vs. opponent’s combined record after 21 Games (Percentage):
Shannon: 11 wins (opponents’ combined win% .373)
Golden: 11 wins (opponents’ combined win% .500)
Richt: 17 wins (opponents’ combined win% .523)
Diaz: 13 wins (opponents’ combined win% .548)
Cristobal: 11 wins (opponents’ combined win% .396)

Mario’s predecessor’s recruiting class rankings (3 cycles):
Shannon: #13, #1, #16
Golden: #32, #10, #15
Richt: #22, #13, #8
Diaz: #17, #11, #11
Cristobal: #13, #8, #11* (*2024 cycle not finished)

Previous HC Coaches who are making $8m+/yr at new school’s record in yr 2:
-Saban: Yr 1: 7-5 / Yr 2: 12-2

-Tucker*: Yr 1: 2-5 / Yr 2: 11-2 (*now fired)

-Riley*: Yr 1: 11-3 / Yr 2: 7-3 (*season in progress)

-Kelly: Yr 1: 10-4 / Yr 2: 6-3* (*season in progress)

-Fisher: Yr 1: 9-4 / Yr 2: 8-5

-Kiffin: Yr 1: 8-5 / Yr 2: 10-2 (USC) ; Yr 1: 5-5 / Yr 2: 10-3 (Ole Miss)

-Heupel: Yr 1: 7-6 / Yr 2: 11-2

-Franklin: Yr 1: 7-6 / Yr 2: 7-6

-Harbaugh: Yr 1: 10-3 / Yr 2: 10-3

-Cristobal: Yr 1: 5-7 / Yr 2: 6-3* (*season in progress)

A little context, if you will (since we all love context):
Out of the $8m+ coaches on this list, only Riley, Kelly, & Cristobal signed $8m+ contracts upon being hired. Saban, Tucker, Heupel, Franklin, Harbaugh, & Fisher all signed extensions after winning seasons, although Fisher did sign for $7.5m upon leaving FSU.

So what do these numbers tell us? Well, so far the numbers say:

1. Cristobal results, thus far, are not in harmony with his peers who are in his salary bracket.

2. Cristobal is showing eerily similar trends, traits, projections as Randy Shannon.

3. Randy & Cristobal racked up their 11 wins against putrid competition, while struggling mightily against teams who were competitive. In fact, let’s examine both Randy & Mario’s “hallmark wins”:

In 2007 & 2008, Randy Shannon beat a then #16 TAMU team at home (2007), & TAMU on the road the following season (2008). That 2007 TAMU team finished 7-6, while 2008’s version finished 4-8.

In 2023, Mario beat TAMU & Clemson at home. Both teams are now 5-4 on the season, currently.

I was interested to see if this trend w/ Mario (thus far) is an anomaly or something to take notice of throughout his coaching tenure:

Mario’s wins v. opponents’ combined winning% (FIU):
Total wins: 27
Opponents’ win% in those 27 victories: .287

Mario’s wins v. opponents’ combined winning% (UO):
Total wins: 35
Opponents’ win% in those 35 victories: .496

While at Oregon, particularly 2019, his team did much better against solid competition, with 2021 being his marquee victory against a very good OSU team on the road who finished w/ 11 victories. However, the scary trend is while at Oregon his teams tended to struggle against well coached programs despite the talent advantage. What makes this more alarming is that while at UO, he had a huge talent discrepancy against all but one opponent he faced (OSU). Oregon’s avg. class rankings from 2018-21 was 10th; the next closest school in the PAC-12 during that period was UW w/ an avg. class rank of 19th.

This leads me to this conclusion: These are merely numbers, and while numbers tell a story, they don’t tell the full story. I typically like to see how a coach fare by yr 3. For instance, while at ND, Kelly was fairly mediocre years 1 & 2, but by year 3, he had ND in the BCS Championship game. Dabo was pedestrian years 1 & 2 at Clemson, but by year 3 he had them as a perennial 10+ win program. Kiffin at FAU was great year 1, horrible yr 2, & by yr 3, he got called by Ole Miss to take over due to another great year at FAU

With that said, however I can’t ignore this fact:
Kelly was 13-8 after 21 games at ND (opponents’ win% .557)

Swinney was 13-8 after 21 games at Clemson (opponents’ win% .490)

Kiffin was 14-7 after 21 games at FAU (opponents’ win%. 493)

Cristobal is now 11-10 w/ his opponents’ combined winning % at .396. Comparatively he’s faced easier opponents vs. the aforementioned coaches, yet he’s still struggling. That’s what scares me.

Hopefully we can win out, but trends and projections say we may go 1-2 to end the season, & quite possibly 0-3. Here’s hoping Mario becomes more like his peers who’s earning his level of salary, & get off the projection of becoming next Randy.
Click to expand...
Thanks Rellyell. You put in a lot of work in this post. The only offending thing is the facts. They don’t lie. This seems like a hopeless situation, has been for nearly two decades. Since we’re stuck with what we have, I’m gonna pray for a miracle (fill in your wish) for my U. That’s all one can do.
 
That’s very depressing, but I can find no faults.

The thing that blows me away is that in all those years, we’ve never failed to lose to at least one team we shouldn’t have. Not once. I get yelled at every summer when I point out we’ll probably lose to GT or some other bad team, but sure enough.
 
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It's tough to swallow being this bad while at the same time being boring af to watch, just compounds the misery. I found myself switching over to the other 2 marquee games Saturday night and it was like watching a completely different sport.
 
Another parallel is Richt's fade: Mario's and Richts teams peak early then land slide to Bolivia to end the season. Rarely do we see other teams in the ACC (except UNC) fade that hard (barring Syracuse's injury woes). I don't know why the wheels always have to fall off.
 
Rellyrell said:
⚠️ Long, analytical post that may offend! ⚠️​

The off-season is fun, isn’t it? It’s a time where renewed hope, & optimism is abundant. It’s a time to get our hopes up on every 5-star recruit who comes to visit our campus. It’s a time where those around the program serve their annual Kool-Aid filled with more sugar than a Krispy Kreme Donut. Regardless of how the previous season transpires, the off-season is by far the best part of being a Canes’ fan for the last 20 years.

However, the off-season brings about something else: Excuses. Listen folks, I’m the guy who wrote a best-seller post calling for patience when Mario was first hired. I figured year one would be a struggle, but not a 5-7 struggle. Quite frankly, it was inexcusable to be that putrid last season, yet we heard all the excuses as to why. Now we’re 6-3; @PIPO was crucified for saying we’re closer to a 4-4 team than 6-2, but any objective fan would’ve agreed.

Regardless, Mario is an $8m/yr man; to put in context, not only is he the highest paid coach, BY FAR, in our program’s history, but he’s making more annually than both Richt/Diaz combined. (Keep that in mind as we examine some stats).

Mario’s predecessor’s record after 21 games:
Shannon: 11-10
Golden: 11-10
Richt: 17-4
Diaz: 13-8
Cristobal: 11-10

Mario’s predecessor’s ACC record after 21 games:
Shannon: 5-8
Golden: 7-7
Richt: 11-4
Diaz: 10-5
Cristobal: 5-8

Mario’s predecessor’s wins vs. opponent’s combined record after 21 Games (Percentage):
Shannon: 11 wins (opponents’ combined win% .373)
Golden: 11 wins (opponents’ combined win% .500)
Richt: 17 wins (opponents’ combined win% .523)
Diaz: 13 wins (opponents’ combined win% .548)
Cristobal: 11 wins (opponents’ combined win% .396)

Mario’s predecessor’s recruiting class rankings (3 cycles):
Shannon: #13, #1, #16
Golden: #32, #10, #15
Richt: #22, #13, #8
Diaz: #17, #11, #11
Cristobal: #13, #8, #11* (*2024 cycle not finished)

Previous HC Coaches who are making $8m+/yr at new school’s record in yr 2:
-Saban: Yr 1: 7-5 / Yr 2: 12-2

-Tucker*: Yr 1: 2-5 / Yr 2: 11-2 (*now fired)

-Riley*: Yr 1: 11-3 / Yr 2: 7-3 (*season in progress)

-Kelly: Yr 1: 10-4 / Yr 2: 6-3* (*season in progress)

-Fisher: Yr 1: 9-4 / Yr 2: 8-5

-Kiffin: Yr 1: 8-5 / Yr 2: 10-2 (USC) ; Yr 1: 5-5 / Yr 2: 10-3 (Ole Miss)

-Heupel: Yr 1: 7-6 / Yr 2: 11-2

-Franklin: Yr 1: 7-6 / Yr 2: 7-6

-Harbaugh: Yr 1: 10-3 / Yr 2: 10-3

-Cristobal: Yr 1: 5-7 / Yr 2: 6-3* (*season in progress)

A little context, if you will (since we all love context):
Out of the $8m+ coaches on this list, only Riley, Kelly, & Cristobal signed $8m+ contracts upon being hired. Saban, Tucker, Heupel, Franklin, Harbaugh, & Fisher all signed extensions after winning seasons, although Fisher did sign for $7.5m upon leaving FSU.

So what do these numbers tell us? Well, so far the numbers say:

1. Cristobal results, thus far, are not in harmony with his peers who are in his salary bracket.

2. Cristobal is showing eerily similar trends, traits, projections as Randy Shannon.

3. Randy & Cristobal racked up their 11 wins against putrid competition, while struggling mightily against teams who were competitive. In fact, let’s examine both Randy & Mario’s “hallmark wins”:

In 2007 & 2008, Randy Shannon beat a then #16 TAMU team at home (2007), & TAMU on the road the following season (2008). That 2007 TAMU team finished 7-6, while 2008’s version finished 4-8.

In 2023, Mario beat TAMU & Clemson at home. Both teams are now 5-4 on the season, currently.

I was interested to see if this trend w/ Mario (thus far) is an anomaly or something to take notice of throughout his coaching tenure:

Mario’s wins v. opponents’ combined winning% (FIU):
Total wins: 27
Opponents’ win% in those 27 victories: .287

Mario’s wins v. opponents’ combined winning% (UO):
Total wins: 35
Opponents’ win% in those 35 victories: .496

While at Oregon, particularly 2019, his team did much better against solid competition, with 2021 being his marquee victory against a very good OSU team on the road who finished w/ 11 victories. However, the scary trend is while at Oregon his teams tended to struggle against well coached programs despite the talent advantage. What makes this more alarming is that while at UO, he had a huge talent discrepancy against all but one opponent he faced (OSU). Oregon’s avg. class rankings from 2018-21 was 10th; the next closest school in the PAC-12 during that period was UW w/ an avg. class rank of 19th.

This leads me to this conclusion: These are merely numbers, and while numbers tell a story, they don’t tell the full story. I typically like to see how a coach fare by yr 3. For instance, while at ND, Kelly was fairly mediocre years 1 & 2, but by year 3, he had ND in the BCS Championship game. Dabo was pedestrian years 1 & 2 at Clemson, but by year 3 he had them as a perennial 10+ win program. Kiffin at FAU was great year 1, horrible yr 2, & by yr 3, he got called by Ole Miss to take over due to another great year at FAU

With that said, however I can’t ignore this fact:
Kelly was 13-8 after 21 games at ND (opponents’ win% .557)

Swinney was 13-8 after 21 games at Clemson (opponents’ win% .490)

Kiffin was 14-7 after 21 games at FAU (opponents’ win%. 493)

Cristobal is now 11-10 w/ his opponents’ combined winning % at .396. Comparatively he’s faced easier opponents vs. the aforementioned coaches, yet he’s still struggling. That’s what scares me.

Hopefully we can win out, but trends and projections say we may go 1-2 to end the season, & quite possibly 0-3. Here’s hoping Mario becomes more like his peers who’s earning his level of salary, & get off the projection of becoming next Randy.
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I intentionally stayed away from this thread at first because I knew it would be the hard truth and I just couldn't take anymore pain lol.....but yeah, you came with nothing but stats and facts. That's always respected.
 
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