OrangeBowlMagic
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Bill Connelly does this article every year, basically for each of the top teams to be a true contender, these things probably need to fall in place. "If" this happens, Miami can compete for a championship, etc.
I linked the article, but a couple talking points for what he pointed out:
1. "If" the run game finds consistency. I think this is probably the most important "if" as well headed into this season. The offense was much better last year, as we all know (he points out we went from 81st to 33rd in Offensive SP+ and scored 31+ in 7 of 11 games), but we still struggled with efficiency. We relied too much on the big play, which we all believe we should have a lot of big plays with the explosive players we recruit, but we have to find a way to be more efficient down to down and not be as much of an "all or nothing" offense. We ranked 74th in 3-and-outs (30% of the time). That stinks, obviously. 95th in rushing success rate. Super stinks, obviously. But, the entire 2 deep OL is back. The entire offensive staff is back. Our Top 3 backs return. Vaughn Donaldson's return should help out a lot in the run game. I don't think we need to get into the Top 20, but that rushing success rate needs to at least be in the Top 40-ish for us to really turn the corner as an offense.
2. "If" a go-to wideout emerges. He hits the nail on the head here too. He does point out that Harley and Mallory are very good, but this one was eye-opening to see on paper (although not really surprising if you watched the games). Outside receivers made, on average 36% of the catches for all teams last year. Here, it was 29%. And right along with that, Pope and Wiggins averaged 6.4 yards per target. That's an abomination. Insert Charleston Rambo, who averaged 10.0 per target in 2019 and 2020. Can Keyshawn Smith emerge? Redding? Is Payton alive? Someone MUST step-up on the outside, and obviously the staff's pursuit of Rambo shows they agree wholeheartedly.
3. "If" the defensive end factory continues to produce. Hey, Shemar Stewart? You listening? Defensive. End. Factory. Anyway, getting to this year's team, he's right here too and it's something many have pointed out. This team is LOADED with experience, I've posted several metrics showing Miami should be Top 5 or better in regards to returning production on both sides of the ball. But really the only area we're not sure of is on the edge. Again, the staff agrees, and the addition of Deandre Johnson shows that. But someone else/two kids really need to step up. My money is on Harvey. I think he's the next one to get pumped out of that Manny Diaz edge production factory.
4. "If" the run defense improves. Um, yes. We ranked 73rd in rushing success allowed (cue the jokes about UNC having 1700% success). That needs to be better. We went from 9th in Defensive SP+ in 2019 to 31st in 2020, and most of that was due to the inability to consistently stop the run. I am much more confident we'll be better with Baker out of the way, but Manny's defenses have been a little up and down against the run since he's been here. In 2016, we ranked 20th in YPC allowed. 2017 was 17th. 2018 was 36th, however. Back to 10th in 2019, with the senior backers here. But all the way down to 78th last season. We need to get back up into the 20's or so in that number. We know the TFL's will be there, most likely so will the sacks. We *should* be really good on the back end. There is some absolute NFL talent at corner and safety. We should be able to cover people and rush the passer. Can we stop the run better this year?
Excellent work, as always from Connelly. I would say the real #1 "if" for this team is "If" D'Eriq King's knee is 100%, but there's really not much to write about there. If it is, we're in good hands. If it's not, look out. But as far as details about position groupings and parts of the team/performance, I think he hit all 4 of these perfectly. I'm not sure if he really does these by importance, but if so I'd argue that the run defense is the 2nd biggest "if". We need to be able to run it better and stop the run better.
www.espn.com
I linked the article, but a couple talking points for what he pointed out:
1. "If" the run game finds consistency. I think this is probably the most important "if" as well headed into this season. The offense was much better last year, as we all know (he points out we went from 81st to 33rd in Offensive SP+ and scored 31+ in 7 of 11 games), but we still struggled with efficiency. We relied too much on the big play, which we all believe we should have a lot of big plays with the explosive players we recruit, but we have to find a way to be more efficient down to down and not be as much of an "all or nothing" offense. We ranked 74th in 3-and-outs (30% of the time). That stinks, obviously. 95th in rushing success rate. Super stinks, obviously. But, the entire 2 deep OL is back. The entire offensive staff is back. Our Top 3 backs return. Vaughn Donaldson's return should help out a lot in the run game. I don't think we need to get into the Top 20, but that rushing success rate needs to at least be in the Top 40-ish for us to really turn the corner as an offense.
2. "If" a go-to wideout emerges. He hits the nail on the head here too. He does point out that Harley and Mallory are very good, but this one was eye-opening to see on paper (although not really surprising if you watched the games). Outside receivers made, on average 36% of the catches for all teams last year. Here, it was 29%. And right along with that, Pope and Wiggins averaged 6.4 yards per target. That's an abomination. Insert Charleston Rambo, who averaged 10.0 per target in 2019 and 2020. Can Keyshawn Smith emerge? Redding? Is Payton alive? Someone MUST step-up on the outside, and obviously the staff's pursuit of Rambo shows they agree wholeheartedly.
3. "If" the defensive end factory continues to produce. Hey, Shemar Stewart? You listening? Defensive. End. Factory. Anyway, getting to this year's team, he's right here too and it's something many have pointed out. This team is LOADED with experience, I've posted several metrics showing Miami should be Top 5 or better in regards to returning production on both sides of the ball. But really the only area we're not sure of is on the edge. Again, the staff agrees, and the addition of Deandre Johnson shows that. But someone else/two kids really need to step up. My money is on Harvey. I think he's the next one to get pumped out of that Manny Diaz edge production factory.
4. "If" the run defense improves. Um, yes. We ranked 73rd in rushing success allowed (cue the jokes about UNC having 1700% success). That needs to be better. We went from 9th in Defensive SP+ in 2019 to 31st in 2020, and most of that was due to the inability to consistently stop the run. I am much more confident we'll be better with Baker out of the way, but Manny's defenses have been a little up and down against the run since he's been here. In 2016, we ranked 20th in YPC allowed. 2017 was 17th. 2018 was 36th, however. Back to 10th in 2019, with the senior backers here. But all the way down to 78th last season. We need to get back up into the 20's or so in that number. We know the TFL's will be there, most likely so will the sacks. We *should* be really good on the back end. There is some absolute NFL talent at corner and safety. We should be able to cover people and rush the passer. Can we stop the run better this year?
Excellent work, as always from Connelly. I would say the real #1 "if" for this team is "If" D'Eriq King's knee is 100%, but there's really not much to write about there. If it is, we're in good hands. If it's not, look out. But as far as details about position groupings and parts of the team/performance, I think he hit all 4 of these perfectly. I'm not sure if he really does these by importance, but if so I'd argue that the run defense is the 2nd biggest "if". We need to be able to run it better and stop the run better.
What will it take for college football's top contenders to win a national title this season?
How many "Ifs" stand between the country's best college football teams and the national title? Bill Connelly breaks down the roadblocks on the way to a championship.
