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Bill Connelly breakdown

This is exactly why I’d like to gather up all the “advanced” stat nerds and burn them to death in a cauldron of grease.

Watch the fcking games, and quit trying to convince yourselves through statistical contortions that we played anything short of rancid football. We were garbage, and if you watched the games and not the nerd **** you’d see it.
 
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Cane6 said:
With this coaching staff, in spite of our talent advantage, we are elite in snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
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Our defense isn't talented. Take away 4 dlineman and you're left with JAGS and players nowhere near ready to be out there. Combine that with the horrendous Blake Baker and it's a deadly ****tail.
 
streetja said:
Our defense isn't talented. Take away 4 dlineman and you're left with JAGS and players nowhere near ready to be out there. Combine that with the horrendous Blake Baker and it's a deadly ****tail.
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Lol you wanna bet on how many of our defensive players go pro?
 
streetja said:
Can't believe anyone bets on this team. Miami excels in finding ways to lose. And like OP is pointing out, we should be winning these games. It's not far fetched to believe one day we'll put it all together - so to bet against or on this schizophrenic team is the worst bet in the entire market.
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I'm done betting on UM for the year. Guaranteed they go 7-0 ATS moving forward
 
These advanced metric threads are ******* stupid every time. We lost the game, we lost all the other games. The only two metrics that matter are scoreboard and win/loss.

Nobody is giving Miami any ******* awards for their inability to live up to their advanced metrics. And seasons are not long enough for data driven models. We don't play 1000 games, who ******* cares if we should have won 800 of them.
 
The Franchise said:
This is exactly why I’d like to gather up all the “advanced” stat nerds and burn them to death in a cauldron of grease.

Watch the fcking games, and quit trying to convince yourselves through statistical contortions that we played anything short of rancid football. We were garbage, and if you watched the games and not the nerd **** you’d see it.
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I don't believe they are mutually exclusive. I believe advanced stats can give a look at a team's potential, while not necessarily taking into consideration the luck, turnovers, stuff like that.

We are rated 30 by FPI, 32 by S&P, and 55 by Saggarin. The FPI ranking has us higher than UNC, UVA, and undefeated Boise and Minn.

These same power ratings, or ones like them, are used by Vegas to set the lines. With due respect, I will take Vegas and their power ratings over your opinion after watching the game on your couch.
 
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Awesome more stats.
So which game was the statistical outlier?
The vtech or the Uf one?
Answer is likely in the middle which is to say we’re a borderline top 25 team. Which is about right of the coaching gets straightened out.
 
The Franchise said:
This is exactly why I’d like to gather up all the “advanced” stat nerds and burn them to death in a cauldron of grease.

Watch the fcking games, and quit trying to convince yourselves through statistical contortions that we played anything short of rancid football. We were garbage, and if you watched the games and not the nerd **** you’d see it.
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To take it further, what the advanced metrics do not account for are things like injuries or situational spots. Va Tech coming off an embarrassing home loss and a good scripted defensive game plan looked good in the first half.

I think it was Brock that posted a presser of Foster saying they knew they could sit on Jarren's stuff and jump it. Where were the adjustments when Kosi came in?

In fact, I saw posts from you saying Jarren shouldn't have played cause it was clear his shoulder was hurt.

Again, I don;t have my head in the sand - there are clear deficiencies that need to be addressed. But to say that advanced metrics are useless is akin to Richt saying we don;t need new plays cause the ones from 30 years ago work just fine.
 
Yeah unfortunately it was pretty clear that we outplayed them handily outside of the first, but spotting them 28 points is quite obviously a catastrophe. It's disappointing that I think we've been the better team in all of our losses, though UF is a tossup as to who shot themselves in the foot more with ****-poor play.

This team needs to find that killer instinct, and gut out wins any way needed. They've played adequately enough to win each game but... You have to actually win them.
 
MizCane said:
I don't see how you could in your sane mind take Miami this week. Take UVA and the points and sit back and enjoy the game because its gonna be a miracle if we win. Its a win win for you.
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So ridiculous. A “miracle” to beat UVA. Ok. How bout let’s not turn the ball over 5 times in the first half and we’ll see how much of a miracle is needed.

FSU needs a miracle. They’re a 27 point underdog. Miami is -1.5 for a reason, it’s because these are 2 average teams playing and this will probably be a close game that comes down to the 4th quarter, which is what the 3 losses have been to this point.
 
scrantoncane said:
I am not defending anyone, because the penalties, sacks allowed, turnovers and scheme (on both sides of the ball) are atrocious, but the advanced metrics show that this team isn't as bad as the "fly the banners" crown wants to allege
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These are exactly the reasons why the team is as bad as the "fly the banners" crowd says it is.

You have too many many turnovers you lose
Commit too many penalties you lose
Have too many sacks you lose
Give up too many big plays you lose

If you have them all you are an awful team. No amount of stats are going to make up for all the above. And you cannot call yourself a good team if you have all of the above regardless of your stats.

Potential.

Potential is the word you are looking for. This is not a good team based on any stat you could possible dream up. Do they have potential...yes.

But thus far....this is a dumpster fire.
 
Go Canes!! said:
UVA turned the ball over 5 times against ND and trailed a scrub team in the the 4th quarter the week before.

We’re at home and have led in th fourth quarter every game this season. Don’t get why people are so shocked at this line.
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UVA has a top 15 defense -- better than UF's.

They're 4-1, soundly beat a good Pitt team and despite turning the ball over 5 times against ND, they only lost by 2 scores away. ND was only able to pull away late off a defensive TD and a turnover they took back to the 20. ND was also getting their typical substantial help from the referees all game long.

Outside of the UF game our defense is allergic to creating turnovers and are allowing painfully average offenses score 4+ TDs a game. We're an undisciplined mess of a team going against a team that's well coached, stout defensively and have a QB that is going to make Pickney and Shaq look like their in slow motion.
 
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streetja said:
Our defense isn't talented. Take away 4 dlineman and you're left with JAGS and players nowhere near ready to be out there. Combine that with the horrendous Blake Baker and it's a deadly ****tail.
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I don’t disagree, but outside of UF, we have mostly been playing against JAGs up to this point.
 
When you consistently win at metrics, but lose the real game, I have to think that's a sign of **** poor coaching. My god, look at the penalties. We aren't running into bad luck here.
 
scrantoncane said:
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The advanced stats aren't going to make anyone feel better, because we should have won the game. Va Tech's post game win expectancy was 20%. That means if this game plays out exactly the way it did if simulated a million times, Va Tech only gets the win 20% of the time.

You can see our defense held them below the national average in every aspect of Success Rate, which grades each play by looking at down and distance and determining whether you got enough yards for the play to be considered a success. You can see on the chart that it equates to 50% of required yardage on 1st down (meaning if it is 1st and 15, you need to get 7.5 yards for the play to be considered a success), 70% on 2nd, and 100% on 3rd & 4th. The national average is 41% and we held them to 33%. On passing downs, they only had a 24% success rate.

Their starting field position was 5 yards better than us. I don't have it handy, but there is a chart that shows your win percentages based on the differential between the opponents average starting field position and your own. I remember being shocked when I first read it. Basically, if you win the FP battle, you win the game. I will try to find the chart and let it speak for itself. This week/year, it wasn't on our punter or STs, it was on the 3 Jarren picks in their territory.

We outgained them by almost 2 yards per play, and by about 225 total yards for the game. That is a beatdown.

Obviously the killer stat is the turnovers. I believe VT was in the bottom 5 in TO ratio coming into the game. We gifted them 5 TOs, which led to a 28-0 lead, that Fuente almost gave away.

I am not defending anyone, because the penalties, sacks allowed, turnovers and scheme (on both sides of the ball) are atrocious, but the advanced metrics show that this team isn't as bad as the "fly the banners" crown wants to allege. You are what your record says you are- we all know that - but we should be 4-1 or 5-0. Some of that has to get chalked up to a first time HC. This is what we signed up for when we hired him. Yes, you can blame the AD for the hire, or you can relax and let the season play out and see if we show improvement.

I am a Jarren guy and I don't like Kosi. But much like I've said that Dallas is our best option at RB for the past 2 years because of the deficiencies on our OL, I think Kosi forces Enos to go away from the under center stuff. It becomes addition by subtraction. If he isn't allowed to run the slow developing stuff because his pocket QB is out, we instantly become more explosive offensively and probably mask some of the OL issues.

I put a 2 unit wager on Miami ML -120. I swore after UNC I wouldn't bet them again this year, then live bet them at -9.5, -6.5, and +1.5 last week, which ruined my whole Saturday card. If UM doesn't win this week, I might have to fill out one of those forms to blacklist myself at the casinos.
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All this statistical crap means ABSOLUTELY zilch. Because a 2019 ACC bottom-feeder MADE THE PLAYS when it mattered most!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Tied game with around 3:30 left on the clock and 67 yards to go for a score. Yet Miami stinks up the stadium and allows mighty VA. TECH to travel the yardage in FIVE PLAYS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Now that's fresh!

But then again, at least the Hokies left enough time on the clock. dUh Only because they SCORED so QUICKLY. Wham, bam thank you madame. Geez, I feel so satisfied.
 
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