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Bill Connelly breakdown

scrantoncane

scrantoncane

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The advanced stats aren't going to make anyone feel better, because we should have won the game. Va Tech's post game win expectancy was 20%. That means if this game plays out exactly the way it did if simulated a million times, Va Tech only gets the win 20% of the time.

You can see our defense held them below the national average in every aspect of Success Rate, which grades each play by looking at down and distance and determining whether you got enough yards for the play to be considered a success. You can see on the chart that it equates to 50% of required yardage on 1st down (meaning if it is 1st and 15, you need to get 7.5 yards for the play to be considered a success), 70% on 2nd, and 100% on 3rd & 4th. The national average is 41% and we held them to 33%. On passing downs, they only had a 24% success rate.

Their starting field position was 5 yards better than us. I don't have it handy, but there is a chart that shows your win percentages based on the differential between the opponents average starting field position and your own. I remember being shocked when I first read it. Basically, if you win the FP battle, you win the game. I will try to find the chart and let it speak for itself. This week/year, it wasn't on our punter or STs, it was on the 3 Jarren picks in their territory.

We outgained them by almost 2 yards per play, and by about 225 total yards for the game. That is a beatdown.

Obviously the killer stat is the turnovers. I believe VT was in the bottom 5 in TO ratio coming into the game. We gifted them 5 TOs, which led to a 28-0 lead, that Fuente almost gave away.

I am not defending anyone, because the penalties, sacks allowed, turnovers and scheme (on both sides of the ball) are atrocious, but the advanced metrics show that this team isn't as bad as the "fly the banners" crown wants to allege. You are what your record says you are- we all know that - but we should be 4-1 or 5-0. Some of that has to get chalked up to a first time HC. This is what we signed up for when we hired him. Yes, you can blame the AD for the hire, or you can relax and let the season play out and see if we show improvement.

I am a Jarren guy and I don't like Kosi. But much like I've said that Dallas is our best option at RB for the past 2 years because of the deficiencies on our OL, I think Kosi forces Enos to go away from the under center stuff. It becomes addition by subtraction. If he isn't allowed to run the slow developing stuff because his pocket QB is out, we instantly become more explosive offensively and probably mask some of the OL issues.

I put a 2 unit wager on Miami ML -120. I swore after UNC I wouldn't bet them again this year, then live bet them at -9.5, -6.5, and +1.5 last week, which ruined my whole Saturday card. If UM doesn't win this week, I might have to fill out one of those forms to blacklist myself at the casinos.
 
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It's the coaches job to maximize production and output. Everything is on them. There is an element to execution. Totally acknowledged. But we didn't adjust or scheme anything. Our rotations were terrible. Our personnel deployment is beyond awful. We are not put in good positions to win football games.
 
Can't believe anyone bets on this team. Miami excels in finding ways to lose. And like OP is pointing out, we should be winning these games. It's not far fetched to believe one day we'll put it all together - so to bet against or on this schizophrenic team is the worst bet in the entire market.
 
The team has a lot of issues but has been in every loss right up to the end. The part that is inexcusable is that the defense is letting the team down when it counts the most instead of stepping up. That shouldn’t be happening with the amount of seniors this team has on the defense and with the same staff as last year.

The offensive line, Baxa, play calling (offense and defense), and the penalties are huge issues in themselves but the defense has taken a massive step backwards.
 
scrantoncane said:
View attachment 98930

The advanced stats aren't going to make anyone feel better, because we should have won the game. Va Tech's post game win expectancy was 20%. That means if this game plays out exactly the way it did if simulated a million times, Va Tech only gets the win 20% of the time.

You can see our defense held them below the national average in every aspect of Success Rate, which grades each play by looking at down and distance and determining whether you got enough yards for the play to be considered a success. You can see on the chart that it equates to 50% of required yardage on 1st down (meaning if it is 1st and 15, you need to get 7.5 yards for the play to be considered a success), 70% on 2nd, and 100% on 3rd & 4th. The national average is 41% and we held them to 33%. On passing downs, they only had a 24% success rate.

Their starting field position was 5 years better than us. I don't have it handy, but there is a chart that shows your win percentages based on the differential between the opponents average starting field position and your own. I remember being shocked when I first read it. Basically, if you win the FP battle, you win the game. I will try to find the chart and let it speak for itself. This week/year, it wasn't on our punter or STs, it was on the 3 Jarren picks in their territory.

We outgained them by almost 2 yards per play, and by about 225 total yards for the game. That is a beatdown.

Obviously the killer stat is the turnovers. I believe VT was in the bottom 5 in TO ratio coming into the game. We gifted them 5 TOs, which led to a 28-0 lead, that Fuente almost gave away.

I am not defending anyone, because the penalties, sacks allowed, turnovers and scheme (on both sides of the ball) are atrocious, but the advanced metrics show that this team isn't as bad as the "fly the banners" crown wants to allege. You are what your record says you are- we all know that - but we should be 4-1 or 5-0. Some of that has to get chalked up to a first time HC. This is what we signed up for when we hired him. Yes, you can blame the AD for the hire, or you can relax and let the season play out and see if we show improvement.

I am a Jarren guy and I don't like Kosi. But much like I've said that Dallas is our best option at RB for the past 2 years because of the deficiencies on our OL, I think Kosi forces Enos to go away from the under center stuff. It becomes addition by subtraction. If he isn't allowed to run the slow developing stuff because his pocket QB is out, we instantly become more explosive offensively and probably mask some of the OL issues.

I put a 2 unit wager on Miami ML -120. I swore after UNC I wouldn't bet them again this year, then live bet them at -9.5, -6.5, and +1.5 last week, which ruined my whole Saturday card. If UM doesn't win this week, I might have to fill out one of those forms to blacklist myself at the casinos.
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Great post.

But I will disagree with your very first statement: the advanced stats SHOULD make people feel better, for two reasons. First, they correlate very well with long-term success. That's what's most important, especially in the first year with a new coach, QB, etc., when teams rarely experience much success. (Usually the jump comes in year 2, sometimes year 3.) Second, if you care about the team playing well, and not just W-L, the advanced stats are often a better indicator of performance than the outcome of the game.

The advanced stats overall DO NOT say that Miami is a good team. They say that Miami is mediocre. Sagarin is down on them, and others, such as SP+, think Miami is just outside the top 25. But the advanced stats do indicate that Miami is not the dumpster fire that the fans on this message board think it is.
 
Miami again put up the most yards an opponent has allowed all year this week. We've done it to UNC and now VT. So just like the UNC game, the advanced stats loved us. We also saw improvement in third down and RZ conversions against VT which was nice.

But all that doesn't matter when we're committing the amount of penalties we are committing and continue to be exceptionally poor on defense in situational football. I don't see how we suddenly improve on that in 6 days or the next few weeks really. This team is an undisciplined mess that also has a coaching staff and players that will always fall short in key situations. Toxic combination that will lead to close but no cigar type football.
 
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streetja said:
Can't believe anyone bets on this team. Miami excels in finding ways to lose. And like OP is pointing out, we should be winning these games. It's not far fetched to believe one day we'll put it all together - so to bet against or on this schizophrenic team is the worst bet in the entire market.
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This reminds me of moneyball thinking in baseball. Stats can tell a totally different story but you can't win just on that. You have to factor in will to win, X factors, etc. I think Manny has be living off the stats a long time. Defense has looked horrible in the eye test only to have them trot out the stats.

Well, stats don't tell the whole story... Obviously
 
jmccomber5 said:
It's the coaches job to maximize production and output. Everything is on them. There is an element to execution. Totally acknowledged. But we didn't adjust or scheme anything. Our rotations were terrible. Our personnel deployment is beyond awful. We are not put in good positions to win football games.
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I have serious concerns about personnel groupings & schemes. The lack of urgency in the 4th Q. Running play-action twice in the last 30 seconds. There is a lot to be desired.

I also agree that, as said in other threads, Manny started calling TOs at the right time in the 4th Q and that it was a correct decision to go for 2 down 14. Personally I like reliance on analytics. Especially for a first time coach, it takes some of the decision making out of the equation. If the analytics say X, then you do Y. It takes the human element out of it.

First time HCs go through growning pains, esp early in the season. I have more of an issue with Enos and Baker at this point. I very much miss our aggressive defense and the TFLs and TOs that came as a result. A scroll through my old posts show my ongoing criticism of the OL going back for several years, as I've continuously argued that you cannot scheme around an OL this bad. Enos is adding to the problem rather than masking it.

But you said "we are not put in good positions to win football games." Is that true? We lost 3 games on the final possession. Sure, as 14 point home chalk it shouldn't come down to that. But we were still in a position to win, but didn't execute/convert.
 
streetja said:
Miami again put up the most yards an opponent has allowed all year this week. We've done it to UNC and now VT. So just like the UNC game, the advanced stats loved us. We also saw improvement in third down and RZ conversions against VT which was nice.

But all that doesn't matter when we're committing the amount of penalties we are committing and continue to be exceptionally poor on defense in situational football. I don't see how we suddenly improve on that in 6 days or the next few weeks really. This team is an undisciplined mess that also has a coaching staff and players that will always fall short in key situations. Toxic combination that will lead to close but no cigar type football.
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Do the advanced stats take into account the actual game score? We've put up big numbers against UNC/VT because we got down big early and were forced to change the offense to make up ground. So I think that skews the stats to a degree. What the advanced stats won't tell you is that we aren't putting up these alleged big numbers in our normal/base offense. So until Manny/Enos change their philosophy/scheme to match when we put up these type numbers it's a moot point IMO.

So while I know these advanced stats SHOULD make me feel better...it actually ****es me off even more lol
 
ALLoverCANE said:
Great post.

But I will disagree with your very first statement: the advanced stats SHOULD make people feel better, for two reasons. First, they correlate very well with long-term success. That's what's most important, especially in the first year with a new coach, QB, etc., when teams rarely experience much success. (Usually the jump comes in year 2, sometimes year 3.) Second, if you care about the team playing well, and not just W-L, the advanced stats are often a better indicator of performance than the outcome of the game.

The advanced stats overall DO NOT say that Miami is a good team. They say that Miami is mediocre. Sagarin is down on them, and others, such as SP+, think Miami is just outside the top 25. But the advanced stats do indicate that Miami is not the dumpster fire that the fans on this message board think it is.
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And I agree with you, on everything you said. But it's hard - and understandable - to say **** the advanced stats when your best win is against Central Michigan. Most fans don't want to hear it.
 
ALLoverCANE said:
Great post.

But I will disagree with your very first statement: the advanced stats SHOULD make people feel better, for two reasons. First, they correlate very well with long-term success. That's what's most important, especially in the first year with a new coach, QB, etc., when teams rarely experience much success. (Usually the jump comes in year 2, sometimes year 3.) Second, if you care about the team playing well, and not just W-L, the advanced stats are often a better indicator of performance than the outcome of the game.

The advanced stats overall DO NOT say that Miami is a good team. They say that Miami is mediocre. Sagarin is down on them, and others, such as SP+, think Miami is just outside the top 25. But the advanced stats do indicate that Miami is not the dumpster fire that the fans on this message board think it is.
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THIS. Simply, WHEN UM stops giving away games (and they're inventing ways to lose just as fast as they can) they'll be a decent program. And Vegas agrees. Simply, we won't lose by tossing 3 picks in 6 passes again, and if we don't, UM is a tough out for anyone on our schedule.
 
UVA turned the ball over 5 times against ND and trailed a scrub team in the the 4th quarter the week before.

We’re at home and have led in th fourth quarter every game this season. Don’t get why people are so shocked at this line.
 
nuprin said:
Do the advanced stats take into account the actual game score? We've put up big numbers against UNC/VT because we got down big early and were forced to change the offense to make up ground. So I think that skews the stats to a degree. What the advanced stats won't tell you is that we aren't putting up these alleged big numbers in our normal/base offense. So until Manny/Enos change their philosophy/scheme to match when we put up these type numbers it's a moot point IMO.

So while I know these advanced stats SHOULD make me feel better...it actually ****es me off even more lol
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You can see a partial answer to this in the 2nd column, where it gives Kosi's standard down passing statistics. We threw it 30 times on downs which would traditionally be considered running downs (1st & 10 for example) because we were down so much. But we only completed 13 of those passes, threw 2 picks, and allowed 3 sacks.

My theory would be that it wasn't that the stats were inflated because we were down - not in the sense that we were playing against a prevent defense that gave up stuff underneath that would pad stats - but instead that Dan Enos offense stinks and doesn't mesh with our awful OL, and when he was forced to adjust because Jarren went out, the offense started to click. The same thing happened a few years ago when Richt dropped 4 straight, then let Kaaya go out of the gun and he looked like the number 1 pick.

The more I type, the more I realize my problem is the coordinations and not the players or the HC.
 
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nuprin said:
Do the advanced stats take into account the actual game score? We've put up big numbers against UNC/VT because we got down big early and were forced to change the offense to make up ground. So I think that skews the stats to a degree. What the advanced stats won't tell you is that we aren't putting up these alleged big numbers in our normal/base offense. So until Manny/Enos change their philosophy/scheme to match when we put up these type numbers it's a moot point IMO.

So while I know these advanced stats SHOULD make me feel better...it actually ****es me off even more lol
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We were down 4 by half time. We were able to run our normal offense the entire second half. We ran the ball 27 times for 180 yards that day. Doesn't sound like catch up football.
 
scrantoncane said:
You can see a partial answer to this in the 2nd column, where it gives Kosi's standard down passing statistics. We threw it 30 times on downs which would traditionally be considered running downs (1st & 10 for example) because we were down so much. But we only completed 13 of those passes, threw 2 picks, and allowed 3 sacks.

My theory would be that it wasn't that the stats were inflated because we were down - not in the sense that we were playing against a prevent defense that gave up stuff underneath that would pad stats - but instead that Dan Enos offense stinks and doesn't mesh with our awful OL, and when he was forced to adjust because Jarren went out, the offense started to click. The same thing happened a few years ago when Richt dropped 4 straight, then let Kaaya go out of the gun and he looked like the number 1 pick.

The more I type, the more I realize my problem is the coordinations and not the players or the HC.
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Gotcha thanks for the clarification.
 
streetja said:
We were down 4 by half time. We were able to run our normal offense the entire second half. We ran the ball 27 times for 180 yards that day. Doesn't sound like catch up football.
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Sorry, I grouped those two games together. It wouldn't apply to the UNC game, but would for VT.
 
streetja said:
Can't believe anyone bets on this team. Miami excels in finding ways to lose. And like OP is pointing out, we should be winning these games. It's not far fetched to believe one day we'll put it all together - so to bet against or on this schizophrenic team is the worst bet in the entire market.
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With this coaching staff, in spite of our talent advantage, we are elite in snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
 
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