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NFL Biggest NFL Draft busts and biggest stars

kgranger17

Data Driven
Joined
Nov 11, 2013
Messages
2,172
Bust = Penei Sewell, Mac Jones, Devante Smith,
Star = Groot (considering his stock is supposedly sinking, for no reason at all), Jamar Chase, Fields, Teven Jenkins
 

Empirical Cane

We are what we repeatedly do.
Joined
Sep 3, 2018
Messages
10,609
History isn't on the side of Mac Jones or Justin Fields. For that matter, T Lawrence* neither.

*Might not be his fault if Jags OL gets him killed
 

CashMoneyCane

Mahoney 7
Joined
Mar 9, 2017
Messages
3,956
Bust = Penei Sewell, Mac Jones, Devante Smith,
Star = Groot (considering his stock is supposedly sinking, for no reason at all), Jamar Chase, Fields, Teven Jenkins

Stock is sinking because he didn't play last year, plain and simple. There is MASSIVE recency bias in prospect evaluation.
 

HighSeas

Sophomore
Joined
Feb 4, 2013
Messages
4,604
Stars =

QB - Lawrence, Lance, probably Fields
RB - maybe Sermon
WR - I lean none but tons of good ones. Eskridge is my sleeper star
TE - Pitts
D - Parsons

Bust =
QB - Wilson (relative)
RB - Etienne
WR - Atwell, maybe Toney
D - Barmore. If Sapp hates him I trust
 

BoxingRobes

Junior
Joined
Aug 24, 2013
Messages
7,195
Non-Miami guys...

The R1 guys I'd want No Matter What

Trevor Lawrence
Ja'Marr Chase
Kyle Pitts
Penai Sewell
Alijah Vera-Tucker
Zaven Collins
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah
Jaycee Horn
Pat Surtain Jr.

Here are my non-R1 players I would pound the table for in 2021.

Elijah Moore
Terrace Marshall Jr.
Sam Cosmi
Spencer Brown
Creed Humphrey
Quinn Meinerz
Dillon Radunz
Kendrick Green
Payton Turner
Milton Williams
Jevon Holland
Richie Grant
James Wiggins

Last year, I was a pussy and didn't write James Robinson down as a guy I liked when I really liked him. In the spirit of James Robinson, I have as a note written somewhere that I wrote after the Kent State game - Jaret Patterson No Matter What. So, him, too.

If I need a RB in the mid-tier...I'd go with Kenneth Gainwell or Trey Sermon, I guess.

I like some of the mid-tier EDGE players as potentially good players. Payton Turner, Joseph Ossai, Boogie Basham, Rashad Weaver.

This was list of non-R1 players I was pounding the table for from 2020.

Players outside of R1 I am pounding the table for...

Jalen Hurts
Antonio Gibson
AJ Dillon
Denzel Mims
Lynn Bowden
Ezra Cleveland
Ben Bartch
Lloyd Cushenberry III
Matt Hennessy
Carl Weaver
Josh Uche
Amik Robertson
Antonio Winfield Jr.
Kyle Dugger
Jeremy Chinn
 

HighSeas

Sophomore
Joined
Feb 4, 2013
Messages
4,604
I see the upside with Payton Turner but I'm not buying the hype. He's gotta be the most upright rusher in the draft. He rises up out of his stance and plays way too tall. He has some explosion, some bend, some speed to power so maybe if he puts it all together he can be an impact rusher with his length. Thing is I watched his Tulane tape and he was invisible for most of the game until Tulane started rotating awful backup LTs in the game and he abused them. At the Senior Bowl he was stonewalled in the 1on1s from what I saw. I think he winds up being mostly an effort and cleanup guy like an Anthony Nelson type.

The guy who impressed me in SB1on1s was Cam Sample. He has a sturdy build and a twitchy inside move. Then I watched his tape from that same Houston game and he doesn't have much edge speed and couldn't even sniff the QB. Maybe the switch flipped at the Senior Bowl but it's more likely OTs will just set firm on his inside half and make him win the edge. He kinda reminds me of Harvey to date so I hope Harvey shows more.

It's a weak edge class and I'm not gonna push names up the board. I do like Milton Williams as a rusher though. He can't play the run for **** but his twitch and body control will be an asset.

Spencer Brown's ceiling is up there with any OTs in the class.

Pounding the table for Terrace Marshall is ironic cause I don't know if he'd pound the table for himself. His playing demeanor is so lax. But I do see the talent with his frame and fluidity and ball skills. He might take a while to develop like Devante Parker. Parker is his #2 comp on mockdraftable...
 

BoxingRobes

Junior
Joined
Aug 24, 2013
Messages
7,195
I see the upside with Payton Turner but I'm not buying the hype. He's gotta be the most upright rusher in the draft. He rises up out of his stance and plays way too tall. He has some explosion, some bend, some speed to power so maybe if he puts it all together he can be an impact rusher with his length. Thing is I watched his Tulane tape and he was invisible for most of the game until Tulane started rotating awful backup LTs in the game and he abused them. At the Senior Bowl he was stonewalled in the 1on1s from what I saw. I think he winds up being mostly an effort and cleanup guy like an Anthony Nelson type.

The guy who impressed me in SB1on1s was Cam Sample. He has a sturdy build and a twitchy inside move. Then I watched his tape from that same Houston game and he doesn't have much edge speed and couldn't even sniff the QB. Maybe the switch flipped at the Senior Bowl but it's more likely OTs will just set firm on his inside half and make him win the edge. He kinda reminds me of Harvey to date so I hope Harvey shows more.

It's a weak edge class and I'm not gonna push names up the board. I do like Milton Williams as a rusher though. He can't play the run for **** but his twitch and body control will be an asset.

Spencer Brown's ceiling is up there with any OTs in the class.

Pounding the table for Terrace Marshall is ironic cause I don't know if he'd pound the table for himself. His playing demeanor is so lax. But I do see the talent with his frame and fluidity and ball skills. He might take a while to develop like Devante Parker. Parker is his #2 comp on mockdraftable...

For Turner...he's a very large human with legit speed to power and bend that will only improve with good coaching. Very few humans on the planet with his size and movement skills. Lined up on both sides. Also had reps lining up inside shoulder. Had reps where he's beating NFL players (sack on Brady Christensen, for example). 5 sacks in 5 games while dealing with COVID, too. Definitely not a finished product though. You getting a lot for the money with a Day 2 pick. But he's got some refinements he needs to make.

I think its a weak edge class, mostly at the top, but I think you get some nice value per sack with some of these guys slotted to go Day 2.

Milton Williams name was written down during the Miami game and the athleticism checks out. Not sure I'd call him an EDGE though.

I'm buying all the Spencer Brown stock. Just looks like a future starter at a tackle spot and another example of a line conversion from TE.

As for Marshall. Just buying stock in all of the LSU WRs. Marshall might be more of a WR2/3 in the league, but he'll be a useful player. I'm not sure where he's drafted, but once you get past the Top 4 guys, he and Moore are my guys. I'd take him over Rondale Moore, Toney, St. Brown...those types that have been floating around the Late 1, into Round 2 area.
 

HighSeas

Sophomore
Joined
Feb 4, 2013
Messages
4,604
For Turner...he's a very large human with legit speed to power and bend that will only improve with good coaching. Very few humans on the planet with his size and movement skills. Lined up on both sides. Also had reps lining up inside shoulder. Had reps where he's beating NFL players (sack on Brady Christensen, for example). 5 sacks in 5 games while dealing with COVID, too. Definitely not a finished product though. You getting a lot for the money with a Day 2 pick. But he's got some refinements he needs to make.

I think its a weak edge class, mostly at the top, but I think you get some nice value per sack with some of these guys slotted to go Day 2.

Milton Williams name was written down during the Miami game and the athleticism checks out. Not sure I'd call him an EDGE though.

I'm buying all the Spencer Brown stock. Just looks like a future starter at a tackle spot and another example of a line conversion from TE.

As for Marshall. Just buying stock in all of the LSU WRs. Marshall might be more of a WR2/3 in the league, but he'll be a useful player. I'm not sure where he's drafted, but once you get past the Top 4 guys, he and Moore are my guys. I'd take him over Rondale Moore, Toney, St. Brown...those types that have been floating around the Late 1, into Round 2 area.
Yeah that was a formatting error on my part. He's a 3-tech or upfield 5-tech. He's too stiff and doesn't bend like an EDGE.

I don't think Marshall will bust cause he's too talented for that. He just has a lot of consistency warts like blocking, timing/precision with his routes, hands, and dealing with physical press coverage. Then there's the medical issue and the matter of him opting out before the BAMA game. Most of his production came against weaker defenses - he didn't produce that well vs Auburn or South Carolina. But he's very young and athletic and flashes enough.

Eskridge is my 5th guy. Then I have Rondale and Wallace but both guys have injury histories that make me uneasy. Then I have Dyami Brown 8th and Elijah/Marshall/St. Brown in the 9-11 range. I wouldn't fault a team for drafting those guys in any order because they all bring different things to the table. After that it's a drop-off though to the next group of guys with Cornell Powell, Toney and Cade Johnson. I wanna put Jalen Camp in that tier too but I've only seen highlights - he reminds me of Quincy Enunwa. Then you get into the range of talented guys who have murkier projections that I wouldn't bang the table for.
 

BoxingRobes

Junior
Joined
Aug 24, 2013
Messages
7,195
I like Eskridge. I'm not sure where I'd slot him on Day 2, but after Chase, Smith, Batemon, Waddle, Elijah Moore, Marshall...for me, there is just a big bucket of guys that all kind of grade the same and depending on what you want, need, etc. there is someone there for you...lots of slot guys this year or guys that project as like...your WR3. FWIW - I usually like MAC receivers like Eskridge. I was a fan of Diontae Johnson coming out, etc. They have a dawg in'em. One of the reasons I like Elijah Moore...got a dawg in'em.

If I NEED a wide out, not sure I want to wait much longer than my 2nd round pick though. Things start to get gross around WR10-ish
 

HighSeas

Sophomore
Joined
Feb 4, 2013
Messages
4,604
Yep agree on all counts. I LOVE Diontae Johnson. He gets so much hate for his "inefficiency" or whatever YPRR BS. He might be the most sudden WR in the league, gets open at will and would make way more big plays with a QB who can actually throw beyond 10 yards with any consistency. Even with said QB if he stays healthy this year he'll put up insane numbers. Can't wait to draft him on my fantasy teams.

Eskridge has as much dawg as anyone in this class, including Chase. Dude blocks his ass off and relishes in burying guys in the ground. He ran well at his Pro Day but he says he was expecting 4.2 and I agree. He plays 4.2 on film. I legit think he could be Tyreek Hill 2.0 but his age is a bummer.

I think guys like Schwartz, Seth Williams or Josh Palmer could be better pros than college players but yeah, big drop off.
 

AUcane

All-ACC
Joined
Nov 2, 2011
Messages
13,318
History isn't on the side of Mac Jones or Justin Fields. For that matter, T Lawrence* neither.

*Might not be his fault if Jags OL gets him killed

History isn't on Lance's side either.

I'm not particularly enamored with Wilson either. Fields's success will absolutely hinge on how drafts him. Less so for the others imo.
 
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