- Joined
- Jul 29, 2013
- Messages
- 1,677
Like most on here, I'm sick of the one-sided officiating we see. I recall a few years back when we had 2 first round DE (phillips and greg) and didn’t get a hold call all year (or something like that). This past Saturday, we saw some very obvious missed calls. The intentional grounding that wasn’t called. The hold on bain that would have been a safety. The illegal motion that wasn’t called for them. No holding calls against their oline. I could go on.
I decided to look at the stats. It is as you would expect.
Out of 136 teams
Miami is 123rd in Penalties Per Game, with 8.5
Miami is 104th in Penalty yards per game, with 66
Miami Opponents are 130th in penalties per game
Miami Opponents are 133rd in penalty yards per game.
Miami averages ~8.5 penalties (66 yards) per game—among the top ~10% most penalized teams. In contrast, their opponents average only ~3.8 penalties (27.5 yards)—among the bottom ~5% least penalized.
Miami commits nearly 2.2× as many penalties and incurs 2.4× as many yards in penalties compared to their opponents.
Miami’s differential (+4.7) is the largest gap among these major programs.
Here’s the scatter plot — each point represents a team’s average penalty yards per game versus their opponents’ average.
The dashed line indicates perfect parity (equal calls both ways).
Miami (in red) sits far below that line — a clear visual outlier showing that their opponents are penalized far less despite Miami drawing far more flags
SUMMARY - **** THESE REFS
SUMMARY 2 - As they say. the squeeky wheel gets the grease. Until UM staff and AD start lodging formal complaints, maybe even public complaints, it wont change. Perhaps Mario with his tough guy persona, refuses to acknowledge this or allow it to be used as an excuse, but it will cost us. I respect the players for not constantly flopping or trying to draw a penalty, but sometimes they need to speak up. It is better to complain now after a win, then do it after a loss.
Disclaimer: I used AI to help analyze the data. All data is from www.teamrankings.com
EDIT:
as per @TriStarCane , he asked about the opponents baseline against other teams. Here you go (fyi its ugly)
All 4 of our FBS opponents had penalty yards against us below their season average (whether you include their game agasint Miami or not)
The proability of this, on its face is 6.25%
Assuming independence across the four games, the joint probability that all four teams had below-average penalty yards is:
P(all four below average)=0.5×0.5×0.5×0.5=0.0625
However, if you account for the standard deviation, it is 0.0000571%!!!!!!
P(all four below average)=0.0011×0.3228×0.1611×0.0001≈0.000000571P
This is approximately 0.0000571% or 5.71 × 10⁻⁷.
I decided to look at the stats. It is as you would expect.
Out of 136 teams
Miami is 123rd in Penalties Per Game, with 8.5
Miami is 104th in Penalty yards per game, with 66
Miami Opponents are 130th in penalties per game
Miami Opponents are 133rd in penalty yards per game.
Miami averages ~8.5 penalties (66 yards) per game—among the top ~10% most penalized teams. In contrast, their opponents average only ~3.8 penalties (27.5 yards)—among the bottom ~5% least penalized.
Penalty Differentials Across All Teams
- Differential Penalties per Game= Own Penalties - Opponent Penalties
- League Mean: 0.02
- League Median: 0.0
- League Std Dev: 1.87
- Differential Yards per Game= Own Yards - Opponent Yards
- League Mean: 0.14
- League Median: -0.25
- League Std Dev: 18.38
| Metric | Miami | Opponent | Differential (Mia–Op) | National “Neutral” Range | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penalties per game | 8.5 | 3.8 | +4.7 | ~0 (avg diff ±1) | Enormous gap — one of the largest in FBS |
| Penalty yards per game | 66.0 | 27.5 | +38.5 | ~0 (avg diff ±10) | Massive discrepancy — among bottom 3 teams nationally |
Miami commits nearly 2.2× as many penalties and incurs 2.4× as many yards in penalties compared to their opponents.
Comparison with Peers
| Team | Penalties (PG) | Opp Penalties (PG) | Net Gap | Bias Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | 8.5 | 3.8 | +4.7 | Against |
| Florida St | 4.8 | 7.5 | -2.7 | In Favor |
| Georgia | 5.0 | 6.5 | -1.5 | Slight Favor |
| Ohio St | 4.3 | 4.3 | 0.0 | Neutral |
| Texas | 8.8 | 4.8 | +4.0 | Against |
| Michigan | 4.0 | 3.0 | +1.0 | Slight Against |
Miami’s differential (+4.7) is the largest gap among these major programs.
Here’s the scatter plot — each point represents a team’s average penalty yards per game versus their opponents’ average.
The dashed line indicates perfect parity (equal calls both ways).
Miami (in red) sits far below that line — a clear visual outlier showing that their opponents are penalized far less despite Miami drawing far more flags
SUMMARY - **** THESE REFS
SUMMARY 2 - As they say. the squeeky wheel gets the grease. Until UM staff and AD start lodging formal complaints, maybe even public complaints, it wont change. Perhaps Mario with his tough guy persona, refuses to acknowledge this or allow it to be used as an excuse, but it will cost us. I respect the players for not constantly flopping or trying to draw a penalty, but sometimes they need to speak up. It is better to complain now after a win, then do it after a loss.
Disclaimer: I used AI to help analyze the data. All data is from www.teamrankings.com
EDIT:
as per @TriStarCane , he asked about the opponents baseline against other teams. Here you go (fyi its ugly)
All 4 of our FBS opponents had penalty yards against us below their season average (whether you include their game agasint Miami or not)
The proability of this, on its face is 6.25%
Assuming independence across the four games, the joint probability that all four teams had below-average penalty yards is:
P(all four below average)=0.5×0.5×0.5×0.5=0.0625
However, if you account for the standard deviation, it is 0.0000571%!!!!!!
| Opponent | Penalty Yards | Season Avg (μ) (excludes miami) | Season Std Dev (σ) | Comparison to Avg | Probability (Below Avg) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ND | 15 | 53.75 | 39.21 | Below | 0.1611 |
| USF | 15 | 65.5 | 13.43 | Below | 0.0001 |
| UF | 20 | 80.33 | 19.62 | Below | 0.0011 |
| FSU | 45 | 49.33 | 9.50 | Below | 0.3228 |
P(all four below average)=0.0011×0.3228×0.1611×0.0001≈0.000000571P
This is approximately 0.0000571% or 5.71 × 10⁻⁷.
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