Betting lines

JgDaCane

All-ACC
Joined
Jul 22, 2014
Messages
9,149
On fanduel sportsbook I see a few of our lines avaliable. -3.5 vs Mich State, -14 vs Wake, -7 vs UVA, -6.5 vs FSU. Figured I’d share. Thoughts?
 

UMFarArcher

All-ACC
Joined
Nov 4, 2011
Messages
12,705
On fanduel sportsbook I see a few of our lines avaliable. -3.5 vs Mich State, -14 vs Wake, -7 vs UVA, -6.5 vs FSU. Figured I’d share. Thoughts?
How's it line up against Clemson in the ACC Championship? - 16.5?
 

For_The_U

All ACC
Joined
Feb 21, 2018
Messages
5,741
-3.5 vs Mich State --> Seems about right to me. I expect us to cover this line even in a tough road environment. MSU will likely not be very good this year. They weren't very good last year and they've lost some critical guys, especially on D.

-14 vs Wake --> Just too many points for me against any team. Hell, if you forced me to bet this I'd take the Decons and 2 TDS. But I won't be betting this game either way.

7 vs UVA --> Our place or theirs? Without their QB they will be a very different team. But Bronco will have them well coached and disciplined on D. This is a tough one, I think Vegas nailed the line. Whether we cover this or not I couldn't give an opinion on until I see the form of the two teams up to that point.

-6.5 vs FSU --> I would never bet either team having to cover a TD+ in this rivalry game. The vast majority of years this score ends up tight, even when the teams are having very different seasons. FSU will be loaded with Jimmys and Joes, as always. I see another tight game this year. Won't be betting this game.
 

Novacane32000

Sophomore
Joined
Aug 10, 2014
Messages
1,337
On fanduel sportsbook I see a few of our lines avaliable. -3.5 vs Mich State, -14 vs Wake, -7 vs UVA, -6.5 vs FSU. Figured I’d share. Thoughts?
What would you think the chances are of winning all 4 of these games based a historical Vegas odds if the lines are still true on game day? Answer - about 23%.

Here is how it breaks down

About a 60% chance of beating Mich St at -3.5
About an 85% chance of beating Wake at -14
About a 70% chance of beating UVA at -7
About a 65% chance of beating FSU at -6.5

Just pointing this out for those who think winning 10 games is a given.

Now, if we start blowing teams out or if our opponents are worse than now thought then that changes everything.

BTW, the posted % is based on 16 years of data and about 12500 games-so pretty reliable.
 

SouthernM

Recruit
Joined
Apr 8, 2013
Messages
153
What would you think the chances are of winning all 4 of these games based a historical Vegas odds if the lines are still true on game day? Answer - about 23%.

Here is how it breaks down

About a 60% chance of beating Mich St at -3.5
About an 85% chance of beating Wake at -14
About a 70% chance of beating UVA at -7
About a 65% chance of beating FSU at -6.5

Just pointing this out for those who think winning 10 games is a given.

Now, if we start blowing teams out or if our opponents are worse than now thought then that changes everything.

BTW, the posted % is based on 16 years of data and about 12500 games-so pretty reliable.
Can you include a link to your source data? This is very interesting.
 

NC_Canes_11

Recruit
Joined
Jul 5, 2017
Messages
3,408
Can you include a link to your source data? This is very interesting.
ML odds concerted to % chance to win. It’s basically odds divided by odds +100

(-(-120) / (-(-120)) +100

So 120/220

55%

Same with plus money odds as well. Those are much easier to look at bc they’re already positive and you don’t have to put the extra negative sign in there to make it positive.
 
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