Are Portal Players worth more?

[Cane Tankerous]

Do others here also believe that Portal Players are the better value in the nil world than High School recruits.

My favorite reason to pay big money to top portal players is that they will have used their 1-time no-sit transfer.

If the portal player is great, it's easier to retain them because a 2nd transfer 1year sit rule.

Also, if the portal player is a bust, your nil folk only lose 1 year of nil.

Paying big nil to a high school recruit (perhaps especially QB's) is, in my opinion, less wise because if they're a bust, you might be paying that big nil for a few years without them even seeing the field...
AND...
if they are a stud, they can move again easily for HUGE nil without sitting out 1 year.

What are some counter arguments?

 

[JamesQuall]

Long story short, yes and no.

Yes because they have college film instead of high school film and are proven commodities. No because of exactly the opposite of my previous sentence and sometimes it's better to recruit a regular high school recruit.

 

[cway313]

Do others here also believe that Portal Players are the better value in the nil world than High School recruits.

My favorite reason to pay big money to top portal players is that they will have used their 1-time no-sit transfer.

If the portal player is great, it's easier to retain them because a 2nd transfer 1year sit rule.

Also, if the portal player is a bust, your nil folk only lose 1 year of nil.

Paying big nil to a high school recruit (perhaps especially QB's) is, in my opinion, less wise because if they're a bust, you might be paying that big nil for a few years without them even seeing the field...
AND...
if they are a stud, they can move again easily for HUGE nil without sitting out 1 year.

What are some counter arguments?

If you asking would I rather pay 1 million for Addison over Inniss the answer is yes. If you asking would I rather pay 1 mil for Ricks over Cormani answer is no. It's levels to it and some players/positions are safer portal bets.




(Used Inniss generically as a 5* WR)

 

[AtlAtty]

Do others here also believe that Portal Players are the better value in the nil world than High School recruits.

My favorite reason to pay big money to top portal players is that they will have used their 1-time no-sit transfer.

If the portal player is great, it's easier to retain them because a 2nd transfer 1year sit rule.

Also, if the portal player is a bust, your nil folk only lose 1 year of nil.

Paying big nil to a high school recruit (perhaps especially QB's) is, in my opinion, less wise because if they're a bust, you might be paying that big nil for a few years without them even seeing the field...
AND...
if they are a stud, they can move again easily for HUGE nil without sitting out 1 year.

What are some counter arguments?

I think your points are well taken, especially at the positions that will command the most money like QB. A bust at QB after shelling out 6 figures will sting. And that will push the market into finding transfers who can provide a greater return because they are proven players.

On the other hand, if the position commands less money, like safety or tight end (using NFL salary cap numbers as a go-by), then it doesn’t sting as much if the high school player is a bust, and in turn the high school player maybe as good or an even better investment because if you hit and find any of the 3 we have now at safety, the Williams brothers and Kinchens, or an Arroyo at TE, then you are sitting pretty.

This is an interesting issue which will play out over the next few years as NIL and state laws evolve and as the free market figures itself out.

 

[No_Fly_Zone]

It's an interesting proposition. I think it's wise to maintain a flexible approach and take it on a case-by-case basis without setting any strict rules. Some top-tier HS recruits will be worthy of the big $$$. Some portal players are more known commodities than others.

Your point that spending the $$$ on a portal player may be a wiser long term investment (because of the transfer rules) is well taken, though. Even if you get a great value on a HS recruit and he later blows up, there's nothing stopping that player from shopping around for a better deal and bolting. So, for instance, if you hit on a 4* and he'd out-performing his NIL by the end of year 2, you may find yourself in yet another open recruitment for the same kid. That seems inevitable, though.

 

[grover]

I think so, but it's more complicated than that.

In financial exercises you, take the potential future value and discount it by a risk factor (e.g., cost-of-capital). An athlete for an NIL deal is no different. So if you have two kids you judge to be of equal talent level, but one has already demonstrated results in college (esp. if it's P5), then of course that kid is worth more because his risk is lower.

Another factor in favor of the transfer kid is time-value-of-money. If a kid is giong to sit as a backup, then your investment will take a couple years to pay off, if it pays off at all. But transfer kids are coming to start right away, so you could free up that capital from the portal kid before the HS kid even sees the field.

The eval is the key issue. Joe Burrow transferred from Taint to LSU and is Mr. Universe. Tate Martell transferred from Taint to Miami and retired from football. Thank god we have Hightower and that dude from MSU to help us figure that out.

 

[TheOriginalCane]

It's why I posted this in another thread:

 

[Memnon]

Depends on the position & the player...

A productive veteran Portal WR is exponentially more valuable than an unknown TF/Red FR.

Proven commodities will always have a high valuation on the market than unproven.

As it pertains to QB recruiting, if you need an immediate starter then yes you pay for proven production, but it’s also a cop-out to forgo recruiting a high level HS QB simply because you’re unable to land them under the guise of fear that they’ll be a bust. That’s simply an excuse for not being able to sign your top target, because there isn’t a single top tier P5 team in college football that doesn’t try to sign the highest ranked QB available to them every single year. Playoff caliber teams already have QB rooms filled with multiple 4 & 5-star QB’s & still sign a brand new one every class, that’s the standard for Playoff teams.

At a position like RB, which is a devalued position altogether, it’s really inconsequential to pay for a productive college transfer over a HS recruit, obviously the college player is already physically developed & has a resume, but RB is a position that a True Freshman can come in & still be highly productive, so even though they’re unknown commodities it’s less of a risk.

QB, WR, CB, DE & OT are the most valuable commodities on the Portal market. They’re the most difficult positions to replace or supplement production from, with the exception of QB & WR depending on the style of Offense you play. So for example, if you play in a High-Octane offense you can actually rely more on in-house unproven prospects because the system is more easily integratabtle which expedites the transition process & makes projected production more feasible because production is manufactured by the system & less dependent upon individual performance.

When it comes to NIL allotment, the main priority of the Portal is to improve your team overall, not to replace High school recruiting & supplement lack of development. Meaning, you don’t use the Portal as an excuse to not sign the best prospects you can sign, especially if you plan on being a team in playoff contention. Unless, you’re a team that doesn’t have the financial capital to compete on the recruiting trail, the Portal is about enhancing what you already have, not conceding to the fact you simply can’t land high level HS prospects.

That strategy works for teams that aren’t actually in contention to win their conference & have low expectations, playoff caliber teams like Bama, UGA, OH ST etc sign the best players they can AND get the best players available in the Portal to add onto their already stacked roster, that’s the formula.

 

[TheEye]

Well…the NIL can also be used to keep players at home. I have yet to see a National Title won with a team of all transfers.

I think the other posts are right about high skill positions, but the team for the most part will do well by being high school recruits.

 

[TexasCane90]

I’d say yes… especially if their a plug and play starter/all conference/all American type like a JP15….

I say that but getting some kids like a Hicks, Baxter, Ray Ray, or McClain is pretty important too

I’d say “top dollar” should go to portal kids (if their a JP) but if you blank I’d say roll that money allocated for the year into the high school class that year and stack 5stars and hope they develop

 

[bobbydigius]

If you asking would I rather pay 1 million for Addison over Inniss the answer is yes. If you asking would I rather pay 1 mil for Ricks over Cormani answer is no. It's levels to it and some players/positions are safer portal bets.




(Used Inniss generically as a 5* WR)

And that will change by year. If one cycle there are 4 Addison available to you and only one Ricks all the while a bunch of teams are in the market for a CB over a WR, chances are that Ricks will fetch way more.

 

[Brooklyndee]

Do others here also believe that Portal Players are the better value in the nil world than High School recruits.

My favorite reason to pay big money to top portal players is that they will have used their 1-time no-sit transfer.

If the portal player is great, it's easier to retain them because a 2nd transfer 1year sit rule.

Also, if the portal player is a bust, your nil folk only lose 1 year of nil.

Paying big nil to a high school recruit (perhaps especially QB's) is, in my opinion, less wise because if they're a bust, you might be paying that big nil for a few years without them even seeing the field...
AND...
if they are a stud, they can move again easily for HUGE nil without sitting out 1 year.

What are some counter arguments?

Vast majority of staffs don't want portal players and will never prioritize portal as a whole cause it's viewed as a negative and coaches want the ability to coach up a kid for 4 years opposed to an unknown for 1 or 2. Obviously there is an exception being the portal kids that are a known factor. But majority of people in the portal are in failing situations and looking for a change. Not coming from a position of success and making a move anyhow.

 

[bobbydigius]

Depends on the position & the player...

A productive veteran Portal WR is exponentially more valuable than an unknown TF/Red FR.

Proven commodities will always have a high valuation on the market than unproven.

As it pertains to QB recruiting, if you need an immediate starter then yes you pay for proven production, but it’s also a cop-out to forgo recruiting a high level HS QB simply because you’re unable to land them under the guise of fear that they’ll be a bust. That’s simply an excuse for not being able to sign your top target, because there isn’t a single top tier P5 team in college football that doesn’t try to sign the highest ranked QB available to them every single year. Playoff caliber teams already have QB rooms filled with multiple 4 & 5-star QB’s & still sign a brand new one every class, that’s the standard for Playoff teams.

At a position like RB, which is a devalued position altogether, it’s really inconsequential to pay for a productive college transfer over a HS recruit, obviously the college player is already physically developed & has a resume, but RB is a position that a True Freshman can come in & still be highly productive, so even though they’re unknown commodities it’s less of a risk.

QB, WR, CB, DE & OT are the most valuable commodities on the Portal market. They’re the most difficult positions to replace or supplement production from, with the exception of QB & WR depending on the style of Offense you play. So for example, if you play in a High-Octane offense you can actually rely more on in-house unproven prospects because the system is more easily integratabtle which expedites the transition process & makes projected production more feasible because production is manufactured by the system & less dependent upon individual performance.

When it comes to NIL allotment, the main priority of the Portal is to improve your team overall, not to replace High school recruiting & supplement lack of development. Meaning, you don’t use the Portal as an excuse to not sign the best prospects you can sign, especially if you plan on being a team in playoff contention. Unless, you’re a team that doesn’t have the financial capital to compete on the recruiting trail, the Portal is about enhancing what you already have, not conceding to the fact you simply can’t land high level HS prospects.

That strategy works for teams that aren’t actually in contention to win their conference & have low expectations, playoff caliber teams like Bama, UGA, OH ST etc sign the best players they can AND get the best players available in the Portal to add onto their already stacked roster, that’s the formula.

You are way more articulate than I, but this is the drum I’ve been beating(only use the portal to supplement and improve talent and don’t use it as an excuse for your recruiting failures) the whole time.

 

[SayWhat]

NIL is pay for play with regards to high school recruits. It's also pay for play to high level transfers, but at least you're getting a known commodity.

In other words, nobody besides die hards and recruitniks give a crap who signs with their team. The common fan, even those that watch every game, couldn't tell you who is in their recruiting class. They get to know them as they begin to play.

So essentially, high school recruits shouldn't have much value if any assigned to them if you're talking about NIL and not pay to sign here or there. They're not really marketable by and large, it's dead money until they do something.

If as intended, you'd pay more when they're high level transfers. I still don't think that would be a way to go as a focus because then recruits would say, look at that guy, he busted his *** and when he was the next man up, they brought in a transfer. He's still there making peanuts and didn't get his shot.

Entire thing is a mess and luckily I don't have to figure out anything about it. I just sit back and watch, good and bad, that's it.

 

[Cane Tankerous]

It's an interesting proposition. I think it's wise to maintain a flexible approach and take it on a case-by-case basis without setting any strict rules. Some top-tier HS recruits will be worthy of the big $$$. Some portal players are more known commodities than others.

Your point that spending the $$$ on a portal player may be a wiser long term investment (because of the transfer rules) is well taken, though. Even if you get a great value on a HS recruit and he later blows up, there's nothing stopping that player from shopping around for a better deal and bolting. So, for instance, if you hit on a 4* and he'd out-performing his NIL by the end of year 2, you may find yourself in yet another open recruitment for the same kid. That seems inevitable, though.

Good points by you.

It got me to thinking that---

Because the transfer rules make it easy for high school signees to move on if they blossom, and make it hard for portal players to move on a 2nd time...

... I'd rather get a guy (like, for example, Shemar) now than to have gotten him originally.

if he ends up crappy, nil on him would not be renewed. if he ends up a stud, we have little fear he, for example, would bolt due to the onerus transfer rules requiring him to sit a year if he wants to transfer that 2nd time.

 

[Cane Tankerous]

Vast majority of staffs don't want portal players and will never prioritize portal as a whole cause it's viewed as a negative and *1 coaches want the ability to coach up a kid for 4 years opposed to an unknown for 1 or 2. Obviously there is an exception being the portal kids that are a known factor. But *2 majority of people in the portal are in failing situations and looking for a change. Not coming from a position of success and making a move anyhow.

*1 Agreed, but the transfer rules mean you're more certain to keep your portal recruit than a high school recruit

**2 True, but you're likely basing your comments on pre-nil history. I think this year, with nil, was the 1st year the portal had ALOT of studs.

And who cares if a majority of players in the portal are trash (just like a majority of high school players are trash),,, we should only focus on the good ones available.

Agreed?

 

[Mackmiller974]

I think they are more valuable because you know what you are going to get. I would take at minimum 5 portal guys every off-season. Speaking of the portal I can't believe we didn't grab a WR

 

[Cane Tankerous]

I think they are more valuable because you know what you are going to get. I would take at minimum 5 portal guys every off-season. Speaking of the portal I can't believe we didn't grab a WR

well, we did get a wide receiver...a former 5 star... but we don't know if he'll be any help... and we didn't get the supreme speed we need/want.

 

[Mackmiller974]

well, we did get a wide receiver...a former 5 star... but we don't know if he'll be any help... and we didn't get the supreme speed we need/want.

Well they choose to gamble on a unproven injury prone WR. There were lots of proven guys they could of went after. Hopefully Ladson proves everyone wrong

 

[Cane Tankerous]

Well they choose to gamble on a unproven injury prone WR. There were lots of proven guys they could of went after. Hopefully Ladson proves everyone wrong

Colbie Young now makes two. Not a portal guy, but sounds very loyal.