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And so it begins…..CFP rankings chat

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OrangeBowlMagic said:
Ohio State is almost certainly finishing in the top 4 and getting a bye aka would not play Miami in the first round.
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True. We will likely get them in quarters. I could see indiana beating osu but that won't kick them out of top 4. We just have to make the playoff and let rest take care of itself.
 
If we somehow got in, the Networks would want to match us up against the Irish at a neutral or Domer-Friendly site.

Catholics vs. Convicts is a Bonanza for the Sponsors. The networks want that.
 
cookies said:
Great week all things considered. Worst case scenario is if OU, UTexas, BYU, Utah and Vandy all win out.

A Georgia tech win against UGA would be nice. If USC & Michigan both win out, everything gets pretty crazy quickly
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Just realized in this scenario, although I don’t trust the committee, there would be three marquee programs who are 10-2 with a single common opponent as Miami;

UTexas: UF
Alabama: FSU
USC: Notre Dame

And a fourth 10-2 program with a head to head loss in Notre Dame. USC’s biggest opponent left is Oregon.

I mean …..it’d be hard for them to short change us here. Beating NC State, who beat UVA & GT, would weaken the blowback ⏸️ from ranking a 10-2 Miami over 10-2’s Louisville, Georgia Tech and Virginia.

the more scenarios I game out; the more doomsday possibilities I eliminate.. We need to break this **** late season curse and finish strong. 3 more wins.

If the committee ranks us above Louisville on Tuesday, then a SMU victory against the Cardinals isn’t necessarily required for our playoff chances.
 
Given their XII love, Texas Tech should be ranked 4th or 5th. Their only loss was with their starting quarterback out.
 
Just saw they moved Texas up 3 spots to 10. Texas was on a bye and jumped Oklahoma . It just so happens that they play UGA on Saturday. That way if UGA loses, it’s again to a top 10 team, and if Texas loses it’s to a top 5 team (2nd time this year). This is how they do it. Guaranteed UGA if they lose they stay in the top 10 and if Texas loses they drop to about 13 or 14 with a chance to climb back into it. There’s gonna be a 3 loss SEC team in it this year and it’ll be one of those two.
 
CANEFAN83 said:
True. We will likely get them in quarters. I could see indiana beating osu but that won't kick them out of top 4. We just have to make the playoff and let rest take care of itself.
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I don’t see anyway Indiana beating Ohio State after the way they looked against Penn State
 
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If Texas loses 3 games, the loss to Florida alone should be disqualifying. What an idiotic system of competition.
 
PennsylvaniaCane said:
Just saw they moved Texas up 3 spots to 10. Texas was on a bye and jumped Oklahoma . It just so happens that they play UGA on Saturday. That way if UGA loses, it’s again to a top 10 team, and if Texas loses it’s to a top 5 team (2nd time this year). This is how they do it. Guaranteed UGA if they lose they stay in the top 10 and if Texas loses they drop to about 13 or 14 with a chance to climb back into it. There’s gonna be a 3 loss SEC team in it this year and it’ll be one of those two.
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Texas loses at UGA I don’t think they get in without a lot of help……..unless they turnaround and beat A&M the last week.
 
For Week 12, I'd feel pretty confident going with this as the CFP rankings:
1. Ohio St
2. A&M
3. Indiana
4. Bama
5. UGA
6. TTU
7. Ole Miss
8. Oregon
9. Notre Dame
10. Texas
11. OU

12-18ish is pretty difficult because BYU should still rank ahead of Utah. Louisville probably will either rank 1 ahead of us or after michigan.

12. Vanderbilt
13. BYU
14. Utah
15. GTech
16. USC
17. Louisville
18. Miami
19. Michigan
20. UTenn
21. UVA
22. Pitt
23. Iowa
24. USF
25. SMU
 
Calinative said:
For Week 12, I'd feel pretty confident going with this as the CFP rankings:
1. Ohio St
2. A&M
3. Indiana
4. Bama
5. UGA
6. TTU
7. Ole Miss
8. Oregon
9. Notre Dame
10. Texas
11. OU

12-18ish is pretty difficult because BYU should still rank ahead of Utah. Louisville probably will either rank 1 ahead of us or after michigan.

12. Vanderbilt
13. BYU
14. Utah
15. GTech
16. USC
17. Louisville
18. Miami
19. Michigan
20. UTenn
21. UVA
22. Pitt
23. Iowa
24. USF
25. SMU
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Out of curiosity, what's the reasoning for Louisville ranking one ahead of us? They have the same number of total losses. They just lost this past week to a 5-3 Cal team at home. If it's because we have the same number of total losses and they beat us head to head, then why is ND 9 spots ahead of us?
 
I wouldn’t bet on it, but I wouldn’t be shocked if we jump more with the committee than with the AP. Vandy squeaking that one out against Auburn was a bummer, but their best win also took a hit this week as I don’t think Mizzou will be ranked anymore. I think the AP is more likely to just bump teams up or down based strictly on a team’s record week over week. If you told me we are 14 on Tuesday I wouldn’t be completely shocked.

I think we’ll be 16 or 17. But I wouldn’t be shocked to see as high as 14.
 
LuCane said:
Out of curiosity, what's the reasoning for Louisville ranking one ahead of us? They have the same number of total losses. They just lost this past week to a 5-3 Cal team at home. If it's because we have the same number of total losses and they beat us head to head, then why is ND 9 spots ahead of us?
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The Committe only truly "Values" H2H when the teams they are comparing are within 3 spots of eachother. The committee had us 8 spots apart from ND just on the resume, which is supposedly supposed to heavily value SOR and Top25 wins. So the H2H never came into place when doing that seeding between us and ND because we were too far apart just on the metric based ranking.

However this week I think louisville likely would fall to around 18-20 (would be a 3-5 fall) due to an OT loss, which would be within 3 spots of where we are. So if that is the case and we are closely rated just on the metrics like SOS+SOR+Game Control+Top25 wins (the metrics the committee looks at), then I think they would then value the H2H matchup. This is why Texas is clearly above OU, they also have similar metrics. It's also why UVA was above Louisville. But honestly UVA has even worse metrics than Louisville does. I think just by record they were slotted highly as their baseline.

Now it IS possible for Louisville to say drop far enough to where that H2H gets essentially devalued in the rankings. They actually are NOT all that great by most of the metrics listed on ESPN (I think committe uses slightly different ratings). SOR UL is 26, FPI 36, SOS 63, Game Control 38... Meanwhile we rank SOR 17, 13 FPI, 39 SOS, 10 Game control. Notre Dame ranks SOR 13, 5 FPI, 30 SOS, 9 Game Control. So it is definitely possible that Louisville does drop a few spots behind us and that H2H doesn't play the deciding factor. Tough to say. And probably the fact that UVA also lost likely makes it more likely Louisville is behind us. I just wouldn't count on it. We'll see. I think if they do rank USF in the top 25 we probably will rank ahead of Louisville (because that would be another top 25 win for us which is more highly valued).....

I could see that being:
12. BYU
13. Utah
14. Vanderbilt
15. GTech
16. Miami
17. USC
18. Michigan
19. UVA
20. Louisville
21. Pitt
22. UTenn
23. Iowa
24. USF
25. SMU/Cinci/JMU/idk
 
Calinative said:
The Committe only truly "Values" H2H when the teams they are comparing are within 3 spots of eachother. The committee had us 8 spots apart from ND just on the resume, which is supposedly supposed to heavily value SOR and Top25 wins. So the H2H never came into place when doing that seeding between us and ND because we were too far apart just on the metric based ranking.

However this week I think louisville likely would fall to around 18-20 (would be a 3-5 fall) due to an OT loss, which would be within 3 spots of where we are. So if that is the case and we are closely rated just on the metrics like SOS+SOR+Game Control+Top25 wins (the metrics the committee looks at), then I think they would then value the H2H matchup. This is why Texas is clearly above OU, they also have similar metrics. It's also why UVA was above Louisville. But honestly UVA has even worse metrics than Louisville does. I think just by record they were slotted highly as their baseline.

Now it IS possible for Louisville to say drop far enough to where that H2H gets essentially devalued in the rankings. They actually are NOT all that great by most of the metrics listed on ESPN (I think committe uses slightly different ratings). SOR UL is 26, FPI 36, SOS 63, Game Control 38... Meanwhile we rank SOR 17, 13 FPI, 39 SOS, 10 Game control. Notre Dame ranks SOR 13, 5 FPI, 30 SOS, 9 Game Control. So it is definitely possible that Louisville does drop a few spots behind us and that H2H doesn't play the deciding factor. Tough to say. And probably the fact that UVA also lost likely makes it more likely Louisville is behind us. I just wouldn't count on it. We'll see. I think if they do rank USF in the top 25 we probably will rank ahead of Louisville (because that would be another top 25 win for us which is more highly valued).....

I could see that being:
12. BYU
13. Utah
14. Vanderbilt
15. GTech
16. Miami
17. USC
18. Michigan
19. UVA
20. Louisville
21. Pitt
22. UTenn
23. Iowa
24. USF
25. SMU/Cinci/JMU/idk
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Committee will decide this week which h2h they value more for Louisville, Miami or UVA.
Cards are being pulled in both directions like by magnets
 
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PennsylvaniaCane said:
Just saw they moved Texas up 3 spots to 10. Texas was on a bye and jumped Oklahoma . It just so happens that they play UGA on Saturday. That way if UGA loses, it’s again to a top 10 team, and if Texas loses it’s to a top 5 team (2nd time this year). This is how they do it. Guaranteed UGA if they lose they stay in the top 10 and if Texas loses they drop to about 13 or 14 with a chance to climb back into it. There’s gonna be a 3 loss SEC team in it this year and it’ll be one of those two.
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Texas was always one spot higher than OU. They beat them
 
Give it another week or two.... plenty of chaos upcoming.
If ever there was an year for us to waltz into the playoffs, it was this year... yet we ***** the pooch again..
Louisville and SMU were there for the taking, if wasn't for our HC and his constipated game management..
 
caneworld said:
Give it another week or two.... plenty of chaos upcoming.
If ever there was an year for us to waltz into the playoffs, it was this year... yet we ***** the pooch again..
Louisville and SMU were there for the taking, if wasn't for our HC and his constipated game management..
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If it wasn't for our head coach, we would be 7-5 and unranked. Or maybe you forgot about the previous 20 seasons.
 
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