Analytics

[DamnLiesAndStatistics]

I'm a huge fan of Analytics - but it's always going to be tricky.

Example - is the 4th & 1 vs FAU, or is it vs Alabama?

On paper, obviously odds increase vs FAU, and decrease vs Alabama. But maybe in this particular game in short yardage situations, FAU has been stuffing you, and you've been having success against Alabama.

How much do you stick to/defer to Analytics vs reading the momentum and flow of the game?

Interesting question. I'll say at that point it's still an analytical decision, but you read the flow of the game to decide "what are my odds of converting 4th and 1 in this game?". If I still think my odds are above 42.5% (or whatever the breakeven point is), then I go for it. If I think my odds are worse than that based off the flow of the game, I kick the field goal. Flow of the game actually helps these decisions, since your conversion rate will change against different teams.

Pretend you're a card counter. You don't always double down on 8 when the dealer is showing 6, but you might if the deck is hot. You also might avoid doubling down with 11 if the deck is ice cold. You may still end up wrong, but you make the best decision with the available information at the time.

Going into the game, you have a guess of how well you'll do in these situations. During the game, you have some idea of if your notions were right, and you can change your plan on the spot (like the card counter seeing a hot or cold deck, and altering strategy rather than blindly following the book). You take that information in and make the highest value decision.

 

[hydro66]

THANKS

 

[DTP]

I’m waiting for the day when a football coach really goes all in on analytics and starts going for it on fourth down every time.

 

[Artist Formerly Known As]

I don’t mind analytics in football. I think a lot of times, analytics say to do what decision I would naturally gravitate towards.


That being said, I F***ing HATE analytics in baseball. I understand their place and why they’ve become popular, but personally, they’ve ruined some of what I loved about the game growing up.

 

[OrangeBowlMagic]

I’m waiting for the day when a football coach really goes all in on analytics and starts going for it on fourth down every time.

No analytics will tell you to go on 4th every time.

Analytics do say to go for it on 4th and 1 every time. But no metrics say go on 4th and 11 from your 17 yard line.

 

[OriginalCanesCanesCanes]

Didn’t Belichik go through a period a few years back where he was going for it on 4th and short a crazy number of times from his own side of the field?

Am I remembering that correctly?

 

[Salt]

It wouldn't if your chances were 49%.

But statistically you are still winning about 1/2 your games. If I am a GM label me as unimpressed.

 

[JD08]

But statistically you are still winning about 1/2 your games. If I am a GM label me as unimpressed.

Right, but there are coaches who will move heaven and earth to get 0.01% better.

 

[Salt]

In a game of inches with millions in salaries and revenues on the line, most head coaches around the country clearly disagree with that.

If I'm a GM approving contracts in the millions you will not be on contract long with 2% improvements in anything if you are not producing in general. But that's just me I guess.

 

[DTP]

No analytics will tell you to go on 4th every time.

Analytics do say to go for it on 4th and 1 every time. But no metrics say go on 4th and 11 from your 17 yard line.

I’m aware of that. I though that common sense was implied. The closer a team is to their opponent’s end zone also dictates when to go for it on fourth. Statistically, teams should go for it on fourth and one from everywhere on the field but that distance gets further the closer you get to scoring. On fourth and goal, a team should always go for it on anything up to and including the five yard line.

 

[AllAboutTheU]

If I'm a GM approving contracts in the millions you will not be on contract long with 2% improvements in anything if you are not producing in general. But that's just me I guess.

Huh? You’re caught up on the 2% number without realizing that it can very well be the difference between 5 and 9 wins. Thinking about 2% abstractly is pointless.

 

[MainLineCane]

Analytics can be great when properly understood and utilized by capable people. They can give useful insight into the small things that can increase the odds of success

BUT...The fact is, All the analytics in the world cannot overcome the problem of having a subpar coach, a dense AD or BOTs that simply don't give a F enough to fire them

You've got to be able to understand and accept your reality before trying to develop an understanding of intricacies that have caused that reality to come into existance.

We regularly underperform in football because of Manny's and Blake's limitations......NOT because we don't go for it enough on 4th and short

 

[Salt]

Huh? You’re caught up on the 2% number without realizing that it can very well be the difference between 5 and 9 wins. Thinking about 2% abstractly is pointless.

Well if you can actually demonstrate that in practice rather than theory I would give you a 2% chance of convincing me. I suspect you are now highly motivated to try.

 

[AllAboutTheU]

Well if you can actually demonstrate that in practice rather than theory I would give you a 2% chance of convincing me. I suspect you are now highly motivated to try.

Not in the slightest.

 

[OrangeBowlMagic]

I’m aware of that. I though that common sense was implied. The closer a team is to their opponent’s end zone also dictates when to go for it on fourth. Statistically, teams should go for it on fourth and one from everywhere on the field but that distance gets further the closer you get to scoring. On fourth and goal, a team should always go for it on anything up to and including the five yard line.

Common sense? On this board?

 

[Salt]

Not in the slightest.

I gave you a 90% chance of responding like this.

 

[JD08]

All it really does is give coaches more information to help them make decisions.

 

[AllAboutTheU]

All it really does is give coaches more information to help them make decisions.

Exactly. It’s really not that complex but it’s become a boogeyman.

 

[JD08]

Exactly. It’s really not that complex but it’s become a boogeyman.

There are people out there who will rely on them too much to hide their lack of ability. It's no different than the business world.

 

[Salt]

All it really does is give coaches more information to help them make decisions.

I don't disagree. I only dispute the point where an analytics result sways one's decision to make a change. There are obvious numbers then there are negligible ones.

I am not disputing analytics is not helpful.