Changes are coming...
But what changes will be made? Does the more important question become WHAT ARE THE RIGHT CHOICES? Today I'm just going to touch base upon the Offense. Specifically the Offense and Offensive Line. The Defense we'll look on at another time.
THE OFFENSE
When looking at the offense overall there are TWO statistics you need to be cautious of: POINTS PER GAME (PPG) & YARDS PER GAME (YPG). Why these two stats? First, Points per Game (PPG). PPG includes Offensive Touchdowns, Field Goals & Defensive Scores. Field Goals & Defensive scores have NOTHING to do with the OFFENSE. So this stat can be viewed as flawed. Second, Yards per Game (YPG). YPG is the average yards an offense accumulates per game. Why is this bad? What would you rather have: (Option A) 260 YPG & 4 TDs or (Option B) 440 YPG & 2 TDs? The goal of the Offense is to score TOUCHDOWNS. How successful an Offense scores Offensive Touchdowns per Possession (OTD).
I formulated a grading system like how you would be graded in school. The purpose was to grade coaches on their production to essentially find out how good or bad they really are. To find a True Value Metric. To come up with this system I used statistics from Football Outsiders, ESPN & Team Rankings. The numbers go as far back to 2007. In these calculations, they remove "Garbage Time Stats" and kneel-downs to go into halftime or to end their respective games. These are Regular Season statistics ONLY and do not include the Conference Championships nor the Bowl Games. This is their TRUE VALUE.
In 2019 the Top 5 Offenses / Offensive Play Callers were:
1.) Steve Sarkisian (Alabama) 96.4
2.) Ryan Day (Ohio State) 96.2
3.) Steve Ensminger (LSU) 92.9
4.) Lincoln Riley (Oklahoma) 90.5
5.) Jeff Scott (Clemson) 88.2
4 of the Top 5 listed above are in the College Football Playoff...
The Dan Enos Effect...
Dan Enos' Offenses as the OC:
2019 Miami 66.0 (T-75th)
2017 Arkansas 67.0 (60th)
2016 Arkansas 69.6 (45th)
2015 Arkansas 81.9 (6th)
Dan Enos' Quarterbacks as the OC / QB Coach:
2019 Miami 44.1 (94th)
2017 Arkansas 58.2 (69th)
2016 Arkansas 69.9 (37th)
2015 Arkansas 88.0 (2nd)
Dan Enos' Offenses & Quarterbacks got worse with every season he coached. We know the reports from Tim Reynolds suggest Enos is on his way out. With that being the case, who should be the next hire? These are the Top 5 College Football Coordinators to consider if you are looking for experience & results. P.S. Kirk Ciarrocca would have made this list as OC/QB (Minnesota) 82.5 (9th), but he was hired yesterday as Penn State's new OC.
TOP 5 OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR CANDIDATES
1.) Kevin Johns OC/QB (Memphis) 83.3 (6th) QBs 77.1 (17th)
2.) Andy Ludwig OC/QB (Utah) 82.7 (8th) QBs 84.1 (7th)
3.) Rob Sale OC/OL (UL-Lafayette) 82.1 (11th) QBs 70.6 (36th)
4.) Rhett Lashlee OC/QB (SMU) 81.2 (14th) QBs 72.6 (29th)
5.) Brian Smith OC/TE/RB (Hawaii) 80.3 (15th) 71.1(35th)
The two best candidates would be Kevin Johns & Andy Ludwig. Ludwig did a better job of developing his quarterbacks, But Johns had a better overall offense. For those wondering about Texas Tech OC/QB David Yost and his numbers, this past season his numbers were: Offense 67.3 (66th) and QBs 73.2 (T-26th). His Offense was barely above Enos' 66.0 (T-75th). And if you were also thinking Ole Miss OC/QB Rich Rodriguez? His Offense was 65.6 (79th). Worse than Enos. His QBs were 73.2 (T-26th). Tied with Texas Tech's David Yost.
OFFENSIVE LINE
This has been a HUGE issue all season long. Is it all Butch Barry's fault? Who are the best Offensive Line Coaches in the nation? There are a number of stats that go into effect to judge these numbers. Such as Line Yards per Carry, Standard Downs Line Yards per Carry, Opportunity Rate, Power Success Rate, Stuff Rate, Sack Rate & Standard Downs Sack Rate. All of this goes into the formula.
2019 TOP 5 OFFENSIVE LINE COACHES
1.) Steed Lobotzke (Air Force) 95.1
2.) Robbie Caldwell (Clemson) 91.4
3.) Phil Trautwein (Boston College) 89.5
4.) Matt Luke (Georgia) 88.7
5.) Thomas Austin (Georgia State) 88.5
BUTCH BARRY...
It's hard to get a ton of information on Barry's career. The offensive line stats go far back as only 2014, which is the same for the defensive line. From 2015 - 2018 Butch Barry was the assistant Offensive Line coach for the Tampa Bay Bucs in the NFL. George Warhop was the Offensive Line Coach for those same years. So how much credit or NOT, do you give Barry? We can only go consistently with what we know. From 2010 - 2013 he coached Tight Ends for Central Michigan. In 2014 he was the Offensive Line Coach. Then 2015 - 2018 with the Tampa Bay Bucs.
BUTCH BARRY's OFFENSIVE LINES
2019 Miami 26.8 (124th)
2014 Central Michigan 44.8 (88th)
With only two years of data at our hands, it isn't much to go off of. But it does tell us that his Offensive Lines haven't been special. They haven't even been average. So even if Barry is retained, which is doubtful, there isn't any data to provide that things will get better. Time to move on.
TOP 5 OFFENSIVE LINE CANDIDATES
1.) Steed Lobotzke (Air Force) 95.1 (1st)
2.) Phil Trautwein (Boston College) 89.5 (3rd)
3.) Thomas Austin (Georgia State) 88.5 (5th)
4.) Mike Cummings (Central Michigan) 83.3 (6th)
5.) Scott Fuchs (Buffalo) 82.1 (8th)
Manny Diaz should be calling Steed Lobotzke yesterday. Lobotzke is the Best Offensive Line Coach in the Country. His units are 7th in Allowing Sacks on Standard Downs, 1st with a 90.2% Power Success Rate & 3rd with a 12.1% Stuff Rate. In other words, his unit protects the QB & bullies the opposing defensive lines for many running lanes with big-play potential. Boston College's Phil Trautwein would be a solid 2nd choice. He has similar numbers to Lobotzke's numbers at Air Force, just slightly lower. Trautwein, 33, played his collegiately at Florida under Ron Zook & Urban Meyer from 2004-2008. In 2008 he made first-team ALL SEC at Left Tackle. Won 2 National Champions. Went Undrafted and played 4 seasons in the NFL before retiring and starting his coaching career.
Next time we'll break down the Defense, Defensive Line & Special Teams...here's a little teaser, Blake Baker's Defense is 79.8 (23rd) but has he ever been elite? Defensive Line Coach Todd Stroud 93.6 (3rd) is ELITE.
