An Analysis of Past Recruiting Classes

[arcane]

Here is a history of UM recruiting classes evaluated by on-the-field performance rather than by expectations. I wanted criteria that were similar from year to year. Recruiting services and gurus have come, gone and morphed, but the NFL draft happens every year. That is one advantage of basing evaluations on the draft: it is a more uniform criterion over time. An even bigger advantage is that the recruiting expectations seem suspect to me. Recruiting projections live in "Shoulda-Woulda-Coulda Land," whereas the rounds in which the players are selected in the draft are more reflective of their actual demonstrated performance in college. Of course, this method glosses over the fact that some players, such as Ken Dorsey, Gino Torretta, KC Jones, Maurice Crum, and many others are stellar players in college who do not project well for the pro game.

So here is what I did. For players who never made at least one pro bowl, I awarded 4 points for each first round pick, 2 points for each second round pick, and 1 point for each third round pick. I awarded 5 points for each player who played in 1 or 2 pro bowls regardless of what round he was selected in, and awarded 6 points for each player who played in 3 or more pro bowls. For example, Jessie Armstead, who went undrafted but played in a whole bunch of pro bowls, gets more points than a guy who was drafted in the first round but was never selected for the pro bowl. Again, the emphasis is on performance rather than projections. Here are the results:

1984(18) - Michael Irvin 6, Bennie Blades 5, Bill Hawkins 4, Brett Perriman 2, Bubba McDowell 1
1985 (11) - Cleveland Gary 4, Steve Walsh 4, Tiger Clark 1, Jimmie Jones 1, Greg Mark 1
1986(11) - Russell Maryland 5, Willis Peguese 4, Shane Curry 2
1987(9) - Leon Searcy 5, Thrill Hill 4
1988(16) - Cortez Kennedy 6, Ryan McNeil 5, Michael Barrow 2, Darrin Smith 2, Lamar Thomas 1
1989(15) - Jessie Armstead 6, Darryl Williams 5, Wesley Carroll 2, Kevin Williams 2
1990(3) - Donnell Bennett 2, Chris T. Jones 1
1991(8) - Warren Sapp 6, Patrick Riley 1
1992(4) - Kenny Holmes 4
1993(15) - Ray Lewis 6, Yatil Green 4, Kenard Lang 4, Jammi German 1
1994(0)
1995(4) - Duane Starks 4
1996(18) - Bubba Franks 6, Edgerrin James 6, Damione Lewis 4, James Jackson 1, Nate Webster 1
1997(22) - Ed Reed 6, Reggie Wayne 6, Santana Moss 5, Dan Morgan 5
1998(10) - William Joseph 4, Mike Rumph 4, Michael Boireau 2
1999(24) - Andre Johnson 6, Bryant McKinnie 5, Clinton Portis 5, Phillip Buchanon 4, Vernon Carey 4
2000(31) - Jeremy Shockey 6, Jonathon Vilma 6, Vince Wilfork 6, Willis McGahee 5, Jerome McDougle 4,
D. J. Williams 4
2001(33) - Frank Gore 6, Antrel Rolle 6, Sean Taylor 6, Kellen Winslow Jr. 5, Kelly Jennings 4,
Rocky McIntosh 2, Roscoe Parrish 2, Rashad Butler 1, Andrew Williams 1
2002(8) - Brandon Merriweather 5, Sinorice Moss 2, Eric Winston 1
2003(18) - Jon Beason 6, Devin Hester 6, Greg Olsen 4, Kevin Everett 1, Tavares Gooden 1
2004(2) - Calais Campbell 2
2005(4) - Kenny Phillips 4
2006(2) - Orlando Franklin 2
2007(3) - Allen Bailey 1, Leonard Hankerson 1, DeMarcus Van Dyke 1
2008(3) - Brandon Harris 2, Sean Spence 1

I want to make some observations in my next post, and it will simplify things if I divide the classes into categories. I will refer to a class with a score above 20 as "high", one with a score from 10 to 19, inclusive, as "medium", and one with a score below 10 as "low". I have avoided the terms "good", "fair", and "poor" to minimize other peoples' temptation to use my analysis as a tool to bash the coaches. This tendency has become extremely tedious, with one group bashing and another group defending. It goes on and on ad nauseam, with the discussion of points actually related to football reduced to mere fodder for the respective diatribes. Please don't use my efforts here for that purpose.

 

[arcane]

Three Observations

1. The scores do not seem to have much correlation to the team's record. For instance, the recruiting classes of 1984, 1988, 1990, 1992, and 2002, each of which was finalized about a month after winning a national championship, scored no highs, 2 mediums, and 3 lows. One of our four scores of "high" followed the 2000 season, in which we went 11-1, but the other three followed seasons in which we were 9-3 (1996 and 1998) and 10-4 (1999).

2. The scores mostly correlate to who the coach was: Jimmy scored 4 mediums and one low, Dennis Erickson 1 medium and 4 lows, Butch Davis 4 highs and 2 mediums, Larry Coker 1 medium and 5 lows.

3. The classes of 1996 and 1997 were recruited in the midst of scholarship reductions due to NCAA sanctions. The 1996 group consisted of 12 players, and the 1997 of 18.

A Thought

I have often heard the claim that recruiting will improve a lot when we "start winning." My experience over the years of following recruiting is that there seem to be other factors that are at least as important as a good record of wins and losses. The figures above seem to indicate that who the coach is makes a lot more difference than does our record.

 

[2Focusd804]

interesting breakdown. I'd say coaches/relationships matters more than win/loss record. also a big component that may be left out of this analysis is coaches eye for talent. Notice Butch Davis who had a notable eye for talent finished with 4 highs and 2 lows and his classes weren't made of 15 5*'s. although recruiting has changed and its harder and harder for talented kids to fall through the cracks coaches need to be able to evaluate and cultivate talent as well

 

[arcane]

interesting breakdown. I'd say coaches/relationships matters more than win/loss record. also a big component that may be left out of this analysis is coaches eye for talent. Notice Butch Davis who had a notable eye for talent finished with 4 highs and 2 lows and his classes weren't made of 15 5*'s. although recruiting has changed and its harder and harder for talented kids to fall through the cracks coaches need to be able to evaluate and cultivate talent as well

I made no attempt to assign a reason for the correlation between the coach and the score, whether it was because of "charming personality," nose for talent, kid felt comfortable, or whatever. Nor am I making any inference about the present or the future. I adopt a very conservative (in the mathematical sense) view of drawing conclusions about causality. Any statistician will tell us that a correlation does not, by itself, imply a cause and effect relationship. I was very hesitant to make any comments on the results rather than letting each person infer whatever he thought he detected.

The correlation just fell out of the compilation of the data. I was not expecting it to be so blatant. I thought, for instance, that Howard Schnellenberger's class of 1984 would rank right up there with Butch's classes. I did not do the analysis in order to marshal support for a preconceived position. This is just the way things turned out, with the coach popping out as apparently much more correlated than I had thought he would be.

 

[Gatorhater]

One thing is very clear. Butch Davis is one heck of a recruiter. I think he was JJ's recruiting coordinator for the last couple years. What I would give to have Butch come back just to recruit. Not HC, just recruit. The other thing that is clear, it has been a long time since recruited worth a crap.

 

[arcane]

One thing is very clear. Butch Davis is one heck of a recruiter. I think he was JJ's recruiting coordinator for the last couple years. What I would give to have Butch come back just to recruit. Not HC, just recruit. The other thing that is clear, it has been a long time since recruited worth a crap.

Bobby Bowden, who was a great recruiter himself, allegedly said that Butch Davis was the toughest guy that he ever went up against in recruiting. In recent years, it has been bruited about that Butch was a great evaluator of talent. Perhaps he was, but I followed recruiting very closely when Butch was here, and I don't remember anyone's praising his skills as an evaluator at that time. That part of the legend seems to me to have only emerged in the last few years. My impression at the time was that he got the guys he was after a huge percentage of the time, and that it was that quality that was his greatest strength. In my inner world of memory, I remember player after player committing during the week after they visited here. 2Focusd804 mentioned another point in his post on this thread. Butch and his staff spotted local guys like Jonathon Vilma and Sean Taylor before the wider world of recruiting noticed them. That sort of thing would be more difficult now.