All Eyes On Mario

[OriginalCanesCanesCanes]

It seems you got .5/3 correct.

So, taking your call to research I've put together a list of all championship coaches this century starting with Bob Stoops. It seems with the exception of Mac Brown and Dabo Swinney every other coach was on the cusp by year 2. They are the exceptions to prove the rule. Mac did have 9 wins though

Year 2 is a strong barometer for if you are going to make it or not as a coach with a particular team.

-Bob Stoops (OU)
Year 2 ring

-Larry Coker(U)
Year 1, ring
Year 2, ring

-Jim Tressel(OSU)
Year 2, "ring"

-Nick Saban(LSU),
Year 2, 10 wins
year 4, ring

-Pete Carroll(USC),
Year 2, 10 wins. 2 scores away from facing Miami
Year 3/4 rings

-Mac Brown (Texas)
Year 2, 9 wins
Year 8, ring

-Urban Meyer (UF)
Year 2, ring

-Les Miles (LSU)
Year 2, 11 wins
Year 3, ring

-Nick Saban (Bama)
Year 2, 12 wins. One win from playing for the title
Year 3, ring

-Gene Chizik (Auburn)
Year 2, Ring

-Jimbo Fisher (FSU)
Year 2, 9 wins. 3 loses by 5 points or less. 1 loss by 10 (#1 ranked ou)
Year 4, Ring

-Urban Meyer (OSU)
Year 1, undefeated
Year 2, Ring

-Dabo Swinney
Year 2, 6 wins, trash
Year 9, ring

-Ed Orgeron
Year 2, 10 wins in second full year. 2 of 3 losses by 1 score
Year 3, ring

-Kirby Smart
Year 2, 13 wins was in the championship game
Year 6, ring

You made an absolute statement which I disproved.

And now you’re qualifying being “on the cusp”, and literally redefining it on the fly. Jimbo wasn’t on the cusp in year two. Not by a long shot. Including close losses in the Jimbo stat doesn’t help your case. He wasn’t on the cusp of anything that year.

Orgeron wasn’t on the cusp of anything year 2 except a couple of hookers and a bottle of hooch.

Gene Chizik? Yes, he won a ship in year 2. Congrats, you found a freak show coach. It doesn’t prove anything about your point except getting a generational talent at quarterback can get you championship if everything works out just right. It was a freak occurrence and you know it. But then I didn’t even use him as an example.

Larry Coker has two rings? You don’t even know your own team? Coker blew a chance for another ring in year 2 (along with Terry Porter) . Are you not a canes fan? You don’t know this?

Plenty of exceptions to prove that your statement was not the rule. Take your L and move on.

 

[Scorpioncane]

Short answer -- Mario is going to make believers of everyone.

Long answer -- Mario is a machine, and will keep recruiting. While I agree that if Mario shyts the bed this year, we will face a lot of challenges, I don't think he does that. Going into the offseason, we were absolutely on a downward spiral. He fixed coaching, but even with the first round of portalers, I was thinking 6 wins maybe 7. But with the second round of portalers, he's filled pretty much every major hole and added depth across the board. So I'm feeling pretty good that 8.5 is the right target, with the full range being 7-10 Ws, barring a TVD meltdown or injury.

So worst case, a 7 win season, and Mario still lands us the #15 class on paper. He then goes out and hits the portal again to fix the problems, and 2024 is a 8+ win season and back into getting a Top 10 class on paper. We're set back by only a year, despite Gattass, and not derailed from our resurgence. And because his staff includes better evaluators than most others, the players are actually better than what's on paper. We're in the playoffs in 5.

Best case, though, is a 10 win season, which enables Mario to land us the #3 class. We're in the playoffs in 4. ... And I think best case is a higher probability than worst case.

Change the 4 and 5 to 3 or 4 years! '24 playoffs go to 12 teams I think starting next year we will always be among the 12 best teams.

 

[mcnaire2004]

You made an absolute statement which I disproved.

And now you’re qualifying being “on the cusp”, and literally redefining it on the fly. Jimbo wasn’t on the cusp in year two. Not by a long shot. Including close losses in the Jimbo stat doesn’t help your case. He wasn’t on the cusp of anything that year.

Orgeron wasn’t on the cusp of anything year 2 except a couple of hookers and a bottle of hooch.

Gene Chizik? Yes, he won a ship in year 2. Congrats, you found a freak show coach. It doesn’t prove anything about your point except getting a generational talent at quarterback can get you championship if everything works out just right. It was a freak occurrence and you know it. But then I didn’t even use him as an example.

Larry Coker has two rings? You don’t even know your own team? Coker blew a chance for another ring in year 2 (along with Terry Porter) . Are you not a canes fan? You don’t know this?

Plenty of exceptions to prove that your statement was not the rule. Take your L and move on.

You're correct about the absolute statement. That was a mistake.

Jimbo and Mac won 9 games. Everyone else was 10 or better. Jimbo was a few scores away from an undefeated season. Only Dabo was had horrible year 2 numbers.

If you notice I put Jim Tressels ring in quotes when I have Coker credit for 2 rings. A less than subtle hint that I may have a clue about that situation. But it still goes to my point. Both coaches were on the cusp or better in year 2.

It's fairly overwhelming. Just about everyone except Mac and Dabo was within a few scores of having an argument to be in the title game.

I meant "cusp" to mean clearly close to having a championship caliber team. But if you took it to mean close to playing for a championship then you'd have similar numbers for year 2.

Didn't you say that a 10 win Orgeron (2 scores from a 12 win season) and Kirby (who was in the championship game) were not on the cusp by year 2?

 

[insaneinthecane]

While wins and losses are of course important and 8-9 wins would be a good starting point, we will know improvement on the field when we see it live and on film. Another year of a 1950's offense, getting our ****s kicked in and losing games we had no business losing is going to cut down on financial support coming in and recruit interest. There will be a good increase in overall team speed and hopefully a modern offense to keep at least some goodwill and momentum going but we have to look like we belong on the field with the big boy teams and not struggle with the Middle Tenn. States of the world.

Struggle? You’re being very generous my man. That home loss to MTSU was a flat out embarrassment of epic proportions.

 

[TemplarCane]

I will add I believe Mario is on the right path. A path that will take time. He, and we, not only want to win, but to build a sustained winning program. A program consistently in the mix for conference championships, whether the conference is the ACC, the SEC, or the Big Ten, playoff berths, and national championships.

A national championship in any context would be a great accomplishment but I don’t believe anyone on this board wants the long-term results of Gene Chizik or Ed Orgeron or Jimbo Fisher. Chisik and Orgeron were benefits of a generational quarterback and everything else falling into place. Both were fired within a few years. Fisher is only marginally better, and probably would never have sniffed a national championship without Winston’s Heisman Trophy season. In my opinion he has been a failure at Texas A&M.

We want better from Mario and the program.

JMO.

 

[Empirical Cane]

It seems you got .5/3 correct.

So, taking your call to research I've put together a list of all championship coaches this century starting with Bob Stoops. It seems with the exception of Mac Brown and Dabo Swinney every other coach was on the cusp by year 2. They are the exceptions to prove the rule. Mac did have 9 wins though

Year 2 is a strong barometer for if you are going to make it or not as a coach with a particular team.

-Bob Stoops (OU)
Year 2 ring

-Larry Coker(U)
Year 1, ring
Year 2, ring

-Jim Tressel(OSU)
Year 2, "ring"

-Nick Saban(LSU),
Year 2, 10 wins
year 4, ring

-Pete Carroll(USC),
Year 2, 10 wins. 2 scores away from facing Miami
Year 3/4 rings

-Mac Brown (Texas)
Year 2, 9 wins
Year 8, ring

-Urban Meyer (UF)
Year 2, ring

-Les Miles (LSU)
Year 2, 11 wins
Year 3, ring

-Nick Saban (Bama)
Year 2, 12 wins. One win from playing for the title
Year 3, ring

-Gene Chizik (Auburn)
Year 2, Ring

-Jimbo Fisher (FSU)
Year 2, 9 wins. 3 loses by 5 points or less. 1 loss by 10 (#1 ranked ou)
Year 4, Ring

-Urban Meyer (OSU)
Year 1, undefeated
Year 2, Ring

-Dabo Swinney
Year 2, 6 wins, trash
Year 9, ring

-Ed Orgeron
Year 2, 10 wins in second full year. 2 of 3 losses by 1 score
Year 3, ring

-Kirby Smart
Year 2, 13 wins was in the championship game
Year 6, ring

This is assuming Miami's inherited baseline was similar to above.

 

[Handsome Squidbum]

Come on ... last year he could have had an 8 win season regardless of the roster ... it was 100% on his poor hire of an OC and also the "big name" D coordinators. This season will be better ... the question is HOW MUCH better? Bar should be winning 9 games. Less will be a major disappointment as it means we lost to teams with lesser talent. Better than 9 ... would be somehow Mario / staff took one. Win 10 and recruiting will be off the charts.

Eggs-actly. Diaz got 7-5 out of a less experienced, less talented version of the team the year prior.
[BGCOLOR=initial] [/BGCOLOR]
[BGCOLOR=initial]Cristobal screwed up his OC hire big time. If he had hired a competent OC, UM should have won at least 8 games. So with the portal and recruiting, a 2 game improvement from that is not unreasonable. He should win 10 games next year. Crapping the bed in the first season shouldnt change the original expectations for year 2.[/BGCOLOR]

 

[mcnaire2004]

This is assuming Miami's inherited baseline was similar to above.

I think so. Chizik (Auburn), Meyer (OSU), Saban (LSU), Saban (Bama), Stoops (OU), Mac Brown (UT), and Pete Carrol (USC) All took over abortions. Everyone of those teams had 6 or fewer wins the year before they took over.

 

[Rellyrell]

I’ll say it once, & I’ll say it again

It does not take 5 yrs to rebuild chit in CFB. We should see immediate improvements NO LATER than yr 3. Most elite coaches see a massive improvement in yr 2, let alone 3.

Listen, even Golden & Shannon won 9 games by yr 3, & even goofy *** Diaz won 8 games by yr 2. There should be absolutely no excuses for this chit to take 5 yrs to turn around. I can go to any era of football & pull out several coaches who struggled yr 1 & immediately turned it around in yr 2, and this comes after inheriting dog chit programs over a 5 yr stretch!

 

[mcnaire2004]

I’ll say it once, & I’ll say it again

It does not take 5 yrs to rebuild chit in CFB. We should see immediate improvements NO LATER than in yr 3. Most elite coaches see a massive improvement in yr 2, let alone 3.

Listen, even Golden & Shannon won 9 games by yr 3, & even goofy *** Diaz won 8 games by yr 2. There should be absolutely no excuses for this chit to take 5 yrs to turn around. I can go to any era of football & pull out several coaches who struggled yr 1 & immediately turned it around in yr 2, and this comes after inheriting dog chit programs over a 5 yr stretch!

You're exactly right!

Here is every coach and team to win a championship this century. I have added Fulmer and Bowden to round out the BCS era. I did look at the 80s and 90s and those were indicative.

-It is a myth that you have to wait for a coach to get their players. That seems to be just an excuse for losers.
-Schools should evaluate by the end of year 2 weather or not to fire coaches
-by year 2, most were within a few scores or a single win from having an argument ro be in the title game.
-most had 10 wins by year 2

Enough of this stacking classes bs. Sure it helps but that only applies to Mac and Dabo. Even Jimbo was a few scores from undefeated regular season in year 2.

Mario needs to win now!

 

[Rellyrell]

You're exactly right! View attachment 243448
Here is every coach and team to win a championship this century. I have added Fulmer and Bowden to round out the BCS era. I did look at the 80s and 90s and those were indicative.

-It is a myth that you have to wait for a coach to get their players. That seems to be just an excuse for losers.
-Schools should evaluate by the end of year 2 weather or not to fire coaches
-by year 2, most were within a few scores or a single win from having an argument ro be in the title game.
-most had 10 wins by year 2

Enough of this stacking classes bs. Sure it helps but that only applies to Mac and Dabo. Even Jimbo was a few scores from undefeated regular season in year 2.

Mario needs to win now!

Bro, we can go to Joe Pa, we can go to Bear Bryant at UK, A&M AND BAMA, we can go Schnelly, Harbaugh at UofM; my man, I legit can go to the 20’s - present & find an overwhelming bit of data to show great coaches take absolutely no longer than 3 yrs to turn around a program, w/ the vast majority taking only 2.

We keep looking at the Butch Davis stint as this guideline when the only reason y it took 5 yrs for Davis was b/c we got hit w/ the closest thing to a death penalty!

There’s absolutely no excuse for these kiddie gloves, & expect real results by yr 5. I expect substantial improvement by this season, & in the conversation for a CFP spot all the way til the end of the season by yr 3. That’s not unrealistic or expecting too much.

 

[TheEye]

Come on ... last year he could have had an 8 win season regardless of the roster ... it was 100% on his poor hire of an OC and also the "big name" D coordinators. This season will be better ... the question is HOW MUCH better? Bar should be winning 9 games. Less will be a major disappointment as it means we lost to teams with lesser talent. Better than 9 ... would be somehow Mario / staff took one. Win 10 and recruiting will be off the charts.

Nick Saban’s “big name” DC only managed 5 wins last year with our players. Not sure if I’m all that optimistic about our record.

 

[Angry Ibis]

Bro, we can go to Joe Pa, we can go to Bear Bryant at UK, A&M AND BAMA, we can go Schnelly, Harbaugh at UofM; my man, I legit can go to the 20’s - present & find an overwhelming bit of data to show great coaches take absolutely no longer than 3 yrs to turn around a program, w/ the vast majority taking only 2.

We keep looking at the Butch Davis stint as this guideline when the only reason y it took 5 yrs for Davis was b/c we got hit w/ the closest thing to a death penalty!

There’s absolutely no excuse for these kiddie gloves, & expect real results by yr 5. I expect substantial improvement by this season, & in the conversation for a CFP spot all the way til the end of the season by yr 3. That’s not unrealistic or expecting too much.

My man!!

We expected a reasonably quick turnaround by every coach we’ve had since Coker, but now that we’ve actually invested and have the portal and NIL we’re accepting mediocrity… I remain perplexed…

 

[GojiraCane]

I think things would have to go catastrophically wrong, with TVD and our top offensive linemen going down to endure a repeat of last year. Otherwise I'd expect a 3 game improvement this year, based on:

• New offensive coordinator
• Significantly improved offensive line
• Healthy Tyler Van Dyke
• Deeper running back depth
• Revamped linebacker corp
• Revamped cornerback corp
• New defensive coordinator

 

[mcnaire2004]

I think things would have to go catastrophically wrong, with TVD and our top offensive linemen going down to endure a repeat of last year. Otherwise I'd expect a 3 game improvement this year, based on:

• New offensive coordinator
• Significantly improved offensive line
• Healthy Tyler Van Dyke
• Deeper running back depth
• Revamped linebacker corp
• Revamped cornerback corp
• New defensive coordinator

 

[Astcloud11]

Eggs-actly. Diaz got 7-5 out of a less experienced, less talented version of the team the year prior.
[BGCOLOR=initial] [/BGCOLOR]
[BGCOLOR=initial]Cristobal screwed up his OC hire big time. If he had hired a competent OC, UM should have won at least 8 games. So with the portal and recruiting, a 2 game improvement from that is not unreasonable. He should win 10 games next year. Crapping the bed in the first season shouldnt change the original expectations for year 2.[/BGCOLOR]

Idk why we're pumping Diaz's record. He likely loses to TAMU because of his **** defense, and the NEW Duke team. Probably beats MTSU. Diaz would've had us 6-6 last year, despite having a much better OC.

 

[Empirical Cane]

You're exactly right! View attachment 243448
Here is every coach and team to win a championship this century. I have added Fulmer and Bowden to round out the BCS era. I did look at the 80s and 90s and those were indicative.

-It is a myth that you have to wait for a coach to get their players. That seems to be just an excuse for losers.
-Schools should evaluate by the end of year 2 weather or not to fire coaches
-by year 2, most were within a few scores or a single win from having an argument ro be in the title game.
-most had 10 wins by year 2

Enough of this stacking classes bs. Sure it helps but that only applies to Mac and Dabo. Even Jimbo was a few scores from undefeated regular season in year 2.

Mario needs to win now!

Based on your analysis above...

fire Big Manny if our Canes don't get to at least 9 Ws this year?

Why wair for end of season? Let's make it happen now, because 9 wins is possible, given more than recent history, unlikely.

Now, OL plays at least above average and 9 Ws gets upgraded to a strong maybe...

 

[Negro-Wan Kanobi]

 

[Empirical Cane]

Bro, we can go to Joe Pa, we can go to Bear Bryant at UK, A&M AND BAMA, we can go Schnelly, Harbaugh at UofM; my man, I legit can go to the 20’s - present & find an overwhelming bit of data to show great coaches take absolutely no longer than 3 yrs to turn around a program, w/ the vast majority taking only 2.

We keep looking at the Butch Davis stint as this guideline when the only reason y it took 5 yrs for Davis was b/c we got hit w/ the closest thing to a death penalty!

There’s absolutely no excuse for these kiddie gloves, & expect real results by yr 5. I expect substantial improvement by this season, & in the conversation for a CFP spot all the way til the end of the season by yr 3. That’s not unrealistic or expecting too much.

Your floor Ws is...

7?
8?
9?

I'm in the 7/8 dub-u camp until this OL can prove it can convert 3rd and 2/3. That drives everything in Big Manny's offense.

Fyzical bro.

This OL shows us something, 8/9 camp for me. This OL mushroom stamps AtM and UNC, 10 would be on the table.

 

[Ironmanfootball]

Screams Improvement is arguable… when you create such a mess that you win 5 games, while course correcting back to a lower expectation of 8 wins is an improvement, we need to see what that looks like on the field, game day coaching, etc before the screaming is positive screaming…

I'm asking if this "improvement" is an improvement over himself in Y1 or over the guy he replaced