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All Eyes On Mario

Tru C said:
Thanks for sharing. I know some have said it could take 5 years, including last year, to turn things around. But you brought up an interesting point that I really hadn’t thought much about.

In the past, the ability to completely flip a roster in a short period of time, didn’t exist as it does today. And so with that, I wonder if coaches will NOT be afforded the kind of patience needed to successfully navigate and withstand a 5 year rebuild.

I would have normally dismissed your premise that year two carries the level of importance mentioned in your article but there is some pause there now. While I still don’t agree this year will be a make or break, next year probably is. But my heals aren’t dug in on either account.
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I see your point but if we do 15-0 this year it doesn't matter. We can go 5-7 in 24 but he would have proven all he needs to.
 
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While wins and losses are of course important and 8-9 wins would be a good starting point, we will know improvement on the field when we see it live and on film. Another year of a 1950's offense, getting our ****s kicked in and losing games we had no business losing is going to cut down on financial support coming in and recruit interest. There will be a good increase in overall team speed and hopefully a modern offense to keep at least some goodwill and momentum going but we have to look like we belong on the field with the big boy teams and not struggle with the Middle Tenn. States of the world.
 
Rickd said:
Come on ... last year he could have had an 8 win season regardless of the roster ... it was 100% on his poor hire of an OC and also the "big name" D coordinators. This season will be better ... the question is HOW MUCH better? Bar should be winning 9 games. Less will be a major disappointment as it means we lost to teams with lesser talent. Better than 9 ... would be somehow Mario / staff took one. Win 10 and recruiting will be off the charts.
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Definitely agree with the poor OC hire. We really should be MUCH IMPROVED over last year, but I'm not sure how that translates yet regarding wins. Do I think we could win 10 games? Yes. Do I think he could win 6 games? Yes ( UNFORTUNATELY) I'd love to see the U back sooner than later though. Go Canes 🏈
 
Empirical Cane said:
I think we know someones who can make that happen...

@RVACane @PIPO @WaterburyCane @ben @Baba Yaga
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All I got for now.

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You can't just have blanket Year X expectations. Everything has to be analyzed case-by-case.

Year 2 should have higher expectations because of the resources he has, better coaches hired, better schemes implemented, and an improved roster.

You dont rate excuses with an $8mil per year salary and big NIL money.

He completely screwed up year 1 by digging himself into a hole with all his moronic decisions, but he still recruited well.

Imagine his recruiting if he hit the ground running and where we could be now.

I think 8-4 should be the absolute floor but I will still be disappointed barring major injuries.
 
Tru C said:
Thanks for sharing. I know some have said it could take 5 years, including last year, to turn things around. But you brought up an interesting point that I really hadn’t thought much about.

In the past, the ability to completely flip a roster in a short period of time, didn’t exist as it does today. And so with that, I wonder if coaches will NOT be afforded the kind of patience needed to successfully navigate and withstand a 5 year rebuild.

I would have normally dismissed your premise that year two carries the level of importance mentioned in your article but there is some pause there now. While I still don’t agree this year will be a make or break, next year probably is. But my heals aren’t dug in on either account.
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Miami was a disaster when Mario arrived, and we've invested way too much into his vision to start this make or break talk. Let him cook.
 
kyle_schick said:
You can't just have blanket Year X expectations. Everything has to be analyzed case-by-case.

Year 2 should have higher expectations because of the resources he has, better coaches hired, better schemes implemented, and an improved roster.

You dont rate excuses with an $8mil per year salary and big NIL money.

He completely screwed up year 1 by digging himself into a hole with all his moronic decisions, but he still recruited well.

Imagine his recruiting if he hit the ground running and where we could be now.

I think 8-4 should be the absolute floor but I will still be disappointed barring major injuries.
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8-4 is a positive first step that screams improvement. That sets up for the next couple years with a 9 win FLOOR and top 5-7 recruiting classes one on too of the other.

I think they win 9 and almkst double last years output and end up top 3-5 in the nation.
 
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Short answer -- Mario is going to make believers of everyone.

Long answer -- Mario is a machine, and will keep recruiting. While I agree that if Mario shyts the bed this year, we will face a lot of challenges, I don't think he does that. Going into the offseason, we were absolutely on a downward spiral. He fixed coaching, but even with the first round of portalers, I was thinking 6 wins maybe 7. But with the second round of portalers, he's filled pretty much every major hole and added depth across the board. So I'm feeling pretty good that 8.5 is the right target, with the full range being 7-10 Ws, barring a TVD meltdown or injury.

So worst case, a 7 win season, and Mario still lands us the #15 class on paper. He then goes out and hits the portal again to fix the problems, and 2024 is a 8+ win season and back into getting a Top 10 class on paper. We're set back by only a year, despite Gattass, and not derailed from our resurgence. And because his staff includes better evaluators than most others, the players are actually better than what's on paper. We're in the playoffs in 5.

Best case, though, is a 10 win season, which enables Mario to land us the #3 class. We're in the playoffs in 4. ... And I think best case is a higher probability than worst case.
 
Udynasty said:
8-4 is a positive first step that screams improvement. That sets up for the next couple years with a 9 win FLOOR and top 5-7 recruiting classes one on too of the other.

I think they win 9 and almkst double last years output and end up top 3-5 in the nation.
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Screams Improvement is arguable… when you create such a mess that you win 5 games, while course correcting back to a lower expectation of 8 wins is an improvement, we need to see what that looks like on the field, game day coaching, etc before the screaming is positive screaming…
 
Angry Ibis said:
Screams Improvement is arguable… when you create such a mess that you win 5 games, while course correcting back to a lower expectation of 8 wins is an improvement, we need to see what that looks like on the field, game day coaching, etc before the screaming is positive screaming…
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I get it .. we need both. We need our offense to actually look like an offense. But wins will be important. You have to sell something. I assume our offense will improve significantly ala Lashlee's era and that will be a development we can point to to our recruits with + wins.

I actually gave both coordinator hired an A after digging into them, I think that Mario hired dudes that take advantage of South FL athletes . Both are agressive coordinators that like to score and in the case of Guidry put pressure on the QB.
 
All eyes should be on Mario. Last year was a failed abortion that was attempted in a rusted out dumpster behind a Golden Corral, and he'd be the first one to agree with that.

The 2023 roster is not the final product. The 2024 and 2025 rosters will look like the reason we paid him $8M a year to come here. But it's plenty good enough to win enough games to be respectable. And if he doesn't, again, the eyes should be on him because it would be a MAJOR red flag for the long-term outlook on this program.

I was 100.00% sold on Mario for years before he was hired. When he did get the job, there wasn't a single person, Jess Cristobal included, who was more excited than I was. But after watching what I watched last year, it's probably 99% now. Even the absolute staunchest Mario supporter, which I am, had to have been given just a little pause seeing what we saw. But if he doesn't at least have a respectable product this year......that approval rating is going to be at the bottom of Lake Osceola. And it should be, because every championship coach sees some pretty significant improvement from Year 1 to Year 2. Again, this isn't his magnum opus. I'll give him another year or two for that. But he's flipped the roster enough and been here long enough to instill his culture that this should be pretty much his team, and not him coaching Manny's team. It's time for some results or we all may need to temper our expectations.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
All eyes should be on Mario. Last year was a failed abortion that was attempted in a rusted out dumpster behind a Golden Corral, and he'd be the first one to agree with that.

The 2023 roster is not the final product. The 2024 and 2025 rosters will look like the reason we paid him $8M a year to come here. But it's plenty good enough to win enough games to be respectable. And if he doesn't, again, the eyes should be on him because it would be a MAJOR red flag for the long-term outlook on this program.

I was 100.00% sold on Mario for years before he was hired. When he did get the job, there wasn't a single person, Jess Cristobal included, who was more excited than I was. But after watching what I watched last year, it's probably 99% now. Even the absolute staunchest Mario supporter, which I am, had to have been given just a little pause seeing what we saw. But if he doesn't at least have a respectable product this year......that approval rating is going to be at the bottom of Lake Osceola. And it should be, because every championship coach sees some pretty significant improvement from Year 1 to Year 2. Again, this isn't his magnum opus. I'll give him another year or two for that. But he's flipped the roster enough and been here long enough to instill his culture that this should be pretty much his team, and not him coaching Manny's team. It's time for some results or we all may need to temper our expectations.
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I'm 100000% with you.

I see 9 wins though because Im in the 99% camp until he proves otherwise.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
All eyes should be on Mario. Last year was a failed abortion that was attempted in a rusted out dumpster behind a Golden Corral, and he'd be the first one to agree with that.

The 2023 roster is not the final product. The 2024 and 2025 rosters will look like the reason we paid him $8M a year to come here. But it's plenty good enough to win enough games to be respectable. And if he doesn't, again, the eyes should be on him because it would be a MAJOR red flag for the long-term outlook on this program.

I was 100.00% sold on Mario for years before he was hired. When he did get the job, there wasn't a single person, Jess Cristobal included, who was more excited than I was. But after watching what I watched last year, it's probably 99% now. Even the absolute staunchest Mario supporter, which I am, had to have been given just a little pause seeing what we saw. But if he doesn't at least have a respectable product this year......that approval rating is going to be at the bottom of Lake Osceola. And it should be, because every championship coach sees some pretty significant improvement from Year 1 to Year 2. Again, this isn't his magnum opus. I'll give him another year or two for that. But he's flipped the roster enough and been here long enough to instill his culture that this should be pretty much his team, and not him coaching Manny's team. It's time for some results or we all may need to temper our expectations.
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Very fair. I want him to grow into a top coach and have his hard work pay off for him in a big way.
 
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Udynasty said:
I'm 100000% with you.

I see 9 wins though because Im in the 99% camp until he proves otherwise.
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I’m going to be much less forgiving about an injury to QB1 because we have no QB2 and the commentary about QB1 since last year annoys the **** out of me, so to be left in this scenario is unacceptable
 
Udynasty said:
I'm 100000% with you.

I see 9 wins though because Im in the 99% camp until he proves otherwise.
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At the end of the day you are what your record says you are, but I actually don't put every single ounce of stock into wins and losses, especially in a year like this when I'm just looking for some growth and some optimism that this is FOR SURE the right dude for us.

So I'm sure this is an unpopular opinion, but it's a little bit more than wins and losses for me. Like if we go 8-4, and all or almost all the wins are by double-digits, and we look prepared, mean, innovative, enthusiastic, a lot of the young kids really bust out, etc....and the losses are to good teams where we play well, maybe even a game or two that we lose because of a bad bounce or one mistake or some crazy turnover luck, I can live with it.

But if we go 7-5 or even maybe 8-4 and we barely scrape by against the GT's and Boston Colleges etc and just get blown off the field by Clemson and FSU again and look totally unprepared and disinterested, then I'm going to be incredibly disappointed.
 
mcnaire2004 said:
Year two there should be big expectations. This century every coach that was going to do it was on the cusp by year two.
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Really? Maybe a little more research will help.

Off the top of my head, I can think of Dabo, Orgeron, Jimbo that didn’t do **** their second year. Sure Jimbo won 9 games his second year, but that’s after winning 10 games his first.

Also, it took racist Kurby six years to win his first NC. After stacking talent like crazy every year starting from his first year.

None of these guys were on the cusp by year two.
 
OriginalCanesCanesCanes said:
Really? Maybe a little more research will help.

Off the top of my head, I can think of Dabo, Orgeron, Jimbo that didn’t do **** their second year. Sure Jimbo won 9 games his second year, but that’s after winning 10 games his first.

Also, it took racist Kurby six years to win his first NC. After stacking talent like crazy every year starting from his first year.

None of these guys were on the cusp by year two.
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It seems you got .5/3 correct.

So, taking your call to research I've put together a list of all championship coaches this century starting with Bob Stoops. It seems with the exception of Mac Brown and Dabo Swinney every other coach was on the cusp by year 2. They are the exceptions to prove the rule. Mac did have 9 wins though

Year 2 is a strong barometer for if you are going to make it or not as a coach with a particular team.

-Bob Stoops (OU)
Year 2 ring

-Larry Coker(U)
Year 1, ring
Year 2, ring

-Jim Tressel(OSU)
Year 2, "ring"

-Nick Saban(LSU),
Year 2, 10 wins
year 4, ring

-Pete Carroll(USC),
Year 2, 10 wins. 2 scores away from facing Miami
Year 3/4 rings

-Mac Brown (Texas)
Year 2, 9 wins
Year 8, ring

-Urban Meyer (UF)
Year 2, ring

-Les Miles (LSU)
Year 2, 11 wins
Year 3, ring

-Nick Saban (Bama)
Year 2, 12 wins. One win from playing for the title
Year 3, ring

-Gene Chizik (Auburn)
Year 2, Ring

-Jimbo Fisher (FSU)
Year 2, 9 wins. 3 loses by 5 points or less. 1 loss by 10 (#1 ranked ou)
Year 4, Ring

-Urban Meyer (OSU)
Year 1, undefeated
Year 2, Ring

-Dabo Swinney
Year 2, 6 wins, trash
Year 9, ring

-Ed Orgeron
Year 2, 10 wins in second full year. 2 of 3 losses by 1 score
Year 3, ring

-Kirby Smart
Year 2, 13 wins was in the championship game
Year 6, ring
 
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