EdIT. Just noticed BC ranked ahead of vatech but you get the gist. We need vatech to keep winning and bc to lose. .
Bumping this thread to say as of now, the way I read the tie break, we would be in assuming the following:
-We win out
-ND loses to Clemson but wins the rest
In this scenario it goes head to head against next highest ranked opponent. So we would have both lost to Clemson and beat UNC. Next highest team today is va tech which we would have beat and they don't play. We would be in as of today. This tells me we need to route for vtech here on out and take care of our own business and hope ND loses to Clemson.
I don't think that's the way it works.
If Miami wins out, and is tied with just ONE team, there are two possibilities:
1. ND beat Clemson and does not lose again. Miami is tied for 2nd with Clemson with 1 loss apiece. Clemson plays ND in the ACC-CG.
2. Clemson beat ND and does not lose again. Miami is tied for 2nd with ND, and Tiebreaker #7 is used.
Here's the reason for #2. Since there was no head-to-head, you look at common opponents. In that scenario, UM and ND both lost to Clemson, and both teams beat any other common opponent (I don't believe you are comparing head-to-head vs. opponents that only 1 of the 2 teams played, but if I'm wrong, I'm wrong).
ND is 5-0 with 6 remaining games (including the flex weekend of December 12).
Miami is 5-1 with 5 remaining games (and no game currently scheduled for December 12).
Every outbreak-free week that passes makes it more likely that we will play all of our remaining games, and that neither team would gain an advantage based on winning percentage.
ND has 6 games against opponents with an average winning percentage of .588 and Miami has 5 games against opponents with an average winning percentage of .593. We play three common opponents on the remaining schedule.
UM and ND play 7 common opponents, and I am operating under the assumption that we will both have our one loss against Clemson. The "uncommon" opponents are NC State, UVa, and VaTech for Miami, and BC, Duke, and Syracuse for Notre Dame. If one of the tiebreakers is to look at how each team does against the highest remaining ACC team, I would point out that NC State is 4-2 and BC is 4-2. For now.