ACC Schedule Review

[Miami82]

Sig how do you see the season playing out, wins vs losses?

Granted until we go through spring ball it will be a huge swag. Take a swing.

Any guess is going to be completely off and unreasonable.

Short answer, I don't have a farking clue. So draw a cartoon and help me out. 8-10 wins.

Long answer, bare with me.

Here is what I think would happen (via 3 assumptions)

1. The defense plays similar or slightly better,

Looking at the ACC only, here are your 2012 v. 2013 numbers

2013

Average Points Per Game: 33.0
Average Yards Per Game: 482
Offensive Turnovers: 15

2012

Average Points Per Game: 32.0
Average Yards Per Game: 505
Offensive Turnovers: 9

Numbers were almost identical but offensive turnovers are up a lot. Perhaps helping the defense is the best way to help this team.

2. That the schedule overall is harder,

Relevant OOC in 2013: UF and @ USF
Relevant OOC in 2014: @ Nebraska and Cinn
ACC Difference: Trade @ Louisville for Wake

2014 will be harder. Who actually knows in the end? Nobody saw FSU have that type of season or UF having those injuries and their season that followed. Duke came out of nowhere and won 10 games, that won't happen in 2014.

3. That Ryan Williams can be more of a game manager, hit the TEs, limit TO and keep the offense on the field. I won't miss Morris overall, I am ready for new blood.

Those are the three biggest assumptions IMO.

I believe that sounds like 8 or 9 wins during the regular season with this staff. We know what to expect from the defense but the offense wasn't so great. Perhaps if they limit turnovers (see VT) and moved the ball when needed (Duke and VT), then we can score some more points.

What do you think?

I think that's fair.

If Ryan wins the starting spot I see us using the middle of the field more and dinking and dunking. I see defenses putting 8-9 in the box to shut down Duke and force the throw. I don't think Ryan can stretch the field with his arm. It could be a frustrating year against the better X's and O's staffs we face. On D, I just don't know. I have an educated guess, more of the same and that will spell disaster for us fans.

 

[Consigliere]

If Ryan wins the starting spot I see us using the middle of the field more and dinking and dunking. I see defenses putting 8-9 in the box to shut down Duke and force the throw. I don't think Ryan can stretch the field with his arm. It could be a frustrating year against the better X's and O's staffs we face. On D, I just don't know. I have an educated guess, more of the same and that will spell disaster for us fans.

Ryan Williams and his "arm strength." Honestly, I was one of those that thought he had a weak arm and he couldn't throw a tight spiral.

Granted we have seen little ACTUAL game film, here are some throws that stand out...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fETtVD2ue1w

3:47 (Throws it from our 49 to USF 19 and it is a great pass outside to Hurns),

4:43 (throws the ball from our 28/29, to the USF 23 PERFECTLY leading Waters),

4:59 (makes his reads, moves around and hits Coley for the TD)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9dIVLi7QYyI

1:16 (Morris seemed to have trouble running plays like this)



Defenses can stack the box, bring their safeties up and try to play defense in a smaller window. I think Williams can still make 40 yard throws and keep them honest. Ryan Williams, if he can simply make better reads, will have a better year than Morris. We have too many weapons especially at TE. Sandland and Walford will get open.

 

[Awsi Dooger]

Our talent level is not appreciably higher than the mid level ACC teams. That was my concern when we joined this conference, and the reason I vehemently opposed it. Every year there will be "unexpected" stumbling blocks, until we return to elite roster level. Our power rating is not markedly higher than many of the teams we dismiss as not a threat. Georgia Tech, for example, had a double digit lead against us each of the past two seasons. Yet they are mocked here and always occupy the bottom of the list of teams we have to worry about. Every time I see that I have to shake my head because it serves to demonstrate how absurd the happy projections are. We want to believe we're comfortably above those programs but when game time rolls around we might be all of a 3 or 4 point favorite.

I believe in big picture viewpoint and not overreaction to recent results. Duke likely will regress. We outman them. I wouldn't have them as high on the danger list as others do. Our skill position guys should have a field day, as always. Last season we had control over the game other than Coley's idiotic refusal to run the ball and build on the 17-7 lead. That was easily his worst game of the season as offensive coordinator, given the situational variables in play. If we had pounded them like the end of the North Carolina game it could have shortened the game and protected our frail defense. Our offensive line would have gathered steam and muscle as the game progressed. Instead, Coley got excited at all of the wide open spaces and was far too finesse happy. Really, he did the same thing at Pittsburgh but I didn't have any problem with it because Pittsburgh had Aaron Donald at defensive tackle, unlike Duke, and their quarterbacking wasn't as proficient or confident as Duke's.

If we are rated #27 preseason again, or anything close to that, which seems likely, I don't understand the misplaced optimism. A #27 level team isn't likely to go 9-3. That would be above the season win over/under. It shouldn't be overlooked that we overachieved early last season by defeating healthy Florida as underdog along with winning so many games that were in the balance in the fourth quarter, namely Georgia Tech, North Carolina and Wake Forest. For some reason there's a tendency to ignore victories like that and assume it was supposed to happen, while fixating on losses. I always have to laugh at fans of NFL teams who rattle off lists of tight losses and bemoan that the team was 12 points from being 12-4, or nonsense like that. Meanwhile, all the games the team won by low margin are simply banked and forgotten. It's preposterous to imagine them tilting the other way.

Until we're at Florida State level of talent and defense, we'll have numerous close games within the ACC.

 

[freespirted305]

I think Ryan is a better game manager and much more proficient at making reads. Neither seem much mobile between him and Morris. And while Ryan doesn't have the biggest arm, after last years offseason he added a lot more arm strength on his balls and I don't think its unreasonable that he won't add a little more strength this Utough

If Ryan wins the starting spot I see us using the middle of the field more and dinking and dunking. I see defenses putting 8-9 in the box to shut down Duke and force the throw. I don't think Ryan can stretch the field with his arm. It could be a frustrating year against the better X's and O's staffs we face. On D, I just don't know. I have an educated guess, more of the same and that will spell disaster for us fans.

Ryan Williams and his "arm strength." Honestly, I was one of those that thought he had a weak arm and he couldn't throw a tight spiral.

Granted we have seen little ACTUAL game film, here are some throws that stand out...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fETtVD2ue1w

3:47 (Throws it from our 49 to USF 19 and it is a great pass outside to Hurns),

4:43 (throws the ball from our 28/29, to the USF 23 PERFECTLY leading Waters),

4:59 (makes his reads, moves around and hits Coley for the TD)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9dIVLi7QYyI

1:16 (Morris seemed to have trouble running plays like this)



Defenses can stack the box, bring their safeties up and try to play defense in a smaller window. I think Williams can still make 40 yard throws and keep them honest. Ryan Williams, if he can simply make better reads, will have a better year than Morris. We have too many weapons especially at TE. Sandland and Walford will get open.

 

[Consigliere]

Our talent level is not appreciably higher than the mid level ACC teams. That was my concern when we joined this conference, and the reason I vehemently opposed it. Every year there will be "unexpected" stumbling blocks, until we return to elite roster level. Our power rating is not markedly higher than many of the teams we dismiss as not a threat. Georgia Tech, for example, had a double digit lead against us each of the past two seasons. Yet they are mocked here and always occupy the bottom of the list of teams we have to worry about. Every time I see that I have to shake my head because it serves to demonstrate how absurd the happy projections are. We want to believe we're comfortably above those programs but when game time rolls around we might be all of a 3 or 4 point favorite.

Our talent level is much higher than those other teams in the conference, we're just not maximizing that talent. I assure you NO ONE in the coastal is out recruiting us. I assure you NO ONE in the coastal is bringing in better players. Perhaps the real issue is coaching and development.

Perhaps if we stop playing terrible football on defense and turning it over on offense, we can stand out a little more.

3 ACC losses in 2013: 5 Turnovers (6 if you count the O'Donnell kneel down against VT
3 ACC losses in 2012: 5 Turnovers

Total of 10 turnovers in those 6 games. As for this GT game perhaps it is a lot closer because we have had 6 turnovers against them the last two years.

I believe in big picture viewpoint and not overreaction to recent results. Duke likely will regress. We outman them. I wouldn't have them as high on the danger list as others do. Our skill position guys should have a field day, as always. Last season we had control over the game other than Coley's idiotic refusal to run the ball and build on the 17-7 lead. That was easily his worst game of the season as offensive coordinator, given the situational variables in play. If we had pounded them like the end of the North Carolina game it could have shortened the game and protected our frail defense. Our offensive line would have gathered steam and muscle as the game progressed. Instead, Coley got excited at all of the wide open spaces and was far too finesse happy. Really, he did the same thing at Pittsburgh but I didn't have any problem with it because Pittsburgh had Aaron Donald at defensive tackle, unlike Duke, and their quarterbacking wasn't as proficient or confident as Duke's.

I don't think Duke will regress, I just think they caught some breaks last season and won some close games (4 by one score or less).

Look at the VT game as a classic example. How often does a team turn the ball over 4 times, have less than 200 yards of offense and score 13 points and win the game? Duke beat VT 13-10 while doing this above (VT even missed 2 FGs).

Another break they caught is when they played us our best player was out. Perhaps a healthy Duke Johnson changes things like it did in 2012 (16 Carries, 176 Rushing Yards and 3 TDs). This doesn't excuse our defense in anyway but it is a lucky break for Duke.

I think in 2014 with a healthy DJ, we beat Duke in a close game. I think Ryan Williams won't make the mistakes that Morris did either. Remember in 2013, we were up 17-7 with the ball at mid-field. It is 3rd and 4, Morris throws the pick. Perhaps things change because certain players changing (DJ and Williams).

As for our OC, he had some growing pains. The Duke game was certainly one of them. Although I think it was more execution, some of the play calls were questionable.

The Second Quarter (9:02) against Duke, Miami starts with the ball on their 17.

We drive the whole field with 6 plays (3 pass and 3 run) and have the ball with a first down on Duke's 8 yard line. On first and second down, he calls pass plays (one was an incomplete pass the other was a sack). RUN THE BALL.

 

[CK ETOH]

1. Better or Worse

A. Louisville - Worse
B. Duke - Better
C. GT - Worse
D. VT - Better (Logan Thomas held them back)
E. FSU - Same
F. UVA - Better (can't get much worse)
G. Pitt - Better (ACC experience makes them better)
H. UNC - Better (they finished the season strong)

2. More difficult schedule (Push)

 

[Consigliere]

REVISED TO REFLECT THE TRANSFER AT DUKE

1. Better or Worse

A. Louisville

Worse

Before the fact that they replaced the WHOLE coaching staff (remember Strong was a defensive minded guy), here is what they lost:

1. Bridgewater (nothing needs to be said),
2. Preston Brown (starting ILB, led team in tackles),
3. Damian Copeland (starting WR, 58 for 780 Yards and 5 TDs),
4. Calvin Pryor (starting Safety, possible 1st round pick)
5. Hakeem Smith (starting Safety, All-American Conf Team)
6. Marcus Smith (DE) and Brandon Dunn (DT) are gone. Smith had 18.5 TFL and 14.5 Sacks [2 against us], and
7. RBs (Perry and Dyer)

B. Duke

Worse.

Brandon Connette has officially transferred, he was a major key to their offense (27 TDs last year). Also, they have a new OC (Scottie Montgomery who is a first time OC). In addition, on offense they lost Dave Harding (G), Perry Simmons (T), Jela Duncan (RB, leading rusher before suspension) and Juwan Thompson (RB, third leading rusher).

On defense they lost Kenny Anunike (DE), Justin Foxx (DE) and Sydney Sarmiento (DT) [who combined to start 109 games] Ross ****rell (CB) and Garett Patterson (CB)
C. GT

Worse and they lost some decent players (Jerry Attaochu (OLB/DE), Ray Beno (OL), Euclid Cummings (DT), Emmanuel Dieke (DE), Jay Finch (OL), Jemea Thomas (S), Brandon Watts (OLB) and Lou Young (CB))

D. VT

Worse and they had lost some good talent and some talent that just hurt us (Andrew Miller (OC), Logan Thomas (QB), DJ Coales (WR), JR Collins (DE), Antonie Exum (CB), Kyle Fuller (CB), James Gayle (DE), Derrick Hopkins (DT) and Jack Tyler (ILB))

E. FSU

Worse, I don't think they can repeat their success but in 2012 they lost a ton and in 2013 they won (The following players are gone: A TON but to sum it up quickly...#2 (Benjamin) and #3 WR (Shaw), #1 (Freeman) and #3 RB (Wilder), Center (Stork), 4 DL (Jernigan, McAllister, McDaniel and Hicks), 2 LB (Smith and Jones) and 2 DBs (Brooks and Joyner).

F. UVA

Better, but not much.

G. Pitt

Worse, they lost their best player (Aaron Donald).

H. UNC

Worse, they lost their best players (Ebron, Renner and Hurst) and some other notables (Tre Boston (S), Tim Jackson (DT), Kareem Martin (DE) and Jabari Price (CB).

2. More difficult schedule

2013: GT, @ UNC, WF, @ FSU, VT, @ Duke, UVA and @ Pitt
2014: @ UL, Duke, @ GT, @ VT, UNC, FSU, @ UVA and Pitt

GT, UNC, FSU, Duke, UVA, Pitt and VT are being played each year. Sub out WF for UL is clearly a more difficult game, especially because the game is at UL.

Location of game: GT indifferent, UNC indifferent, UVA indifferent, Duke indifferent and Pitt is indifferent

VT is worse this year but the game is at their stadium.

FSU is worse this year and the game is at home.

@ UL > WF

I would say the 2014 ACC schedule is more difficult but only slightly.

 

[Consigliere]

Top 8 (Most Difficult to Least Difficult)

1. FSU

[TREMENDOUS GAP]

2. @VT

<--- 2 or 3 could go either way

3. @UL

[TREMENDOUS GAP]
-------------------------------------------ALquator (should win the rest of the games)

4. UNC

5. Duke (Goodbye Brandon Connette and the 5 TDs he had against us)

6. @ GT

<--- 6 or 7 could go either way

7. @ UVA

8. Pitt

 

[RiDLer80]

You think UNC is a sure win?

 

[ghost2]

Nice stuff man! LMAO @ "Alquator"

 

[Consigliere]

You think UNC is a sure win?

Below the ALquator, he should win that game.

Let's not forget what happened last year against UNC. 4 Turnovers and 3/4 of the game without DJ.

They lost their best players (Ebron, Renner and Hurst) and some other notables: Tre Boston (S), Tim Jackson (DT), Kareem Martin (DE) and Jabari Price (CB). The game is also at HOME.

Tell me why we SHOULDN'T win this game. Are they better? Are we going to have another 4 TOs?

 

[RiDLer80]

Fair enough.

 

[Bigtip]

ACC schedule is a push or slightly harder with UL. OOC schedule is harder

our offense is going to struggle big time vs decent teams that we cant just line up and run down their throat.

6-6 and F.A.G. gets fired

 

[Miami04]

ACC schedule is a push or slightly harder with UL. OOC schedule is harder

our offense is going to struggle big time vs decent teams that we cant just line up and run down their throat.

6-6 and F.A.G. gets fired

You don't want to hear it but Golden could go 6-6 this year and next and not get fired.

 

[cp7705]

1. Better or Worse

A. Louisville- Worse, Teddy Bridgewater....Charlie Strong..moving on.

B. Duke- Same, but they arent going to do what they did again. Lost Connette, he was a thorn in our side with his running.

C. GT- Same, Decent amount of athletes, but that offense is not going to fool anyone anymore. Nothing to fear at QB.

D. VT- Worse, No Logan Thomas, QB from bowl game hasnt look spectacular. Running game isnt as strong as it was. Defense still worries me.

E. FSU- Same, good athletes everywhere, but its not going to be the same.

F. UVA- Better, Good recruiting class may help, but I dont think so. Just dont get caught off guard....smh.

G. Pitt- Same, Tyler Boyd needs to be neutralized.

H. UNC- Better?- Everyone says they are suppose to be better, but I dont see why they think that. They lost their offensive dynamo, Ebron.

2. More difficult schedule

2013: GT, @ UNC, WF, @ FSU, VT, @ Duke, UVA and @ Pitt
2014: @ UL, Duke, @ GT, @ VT, UNC, FSU, @ UVA and Pitt (Same strength)

 

[Consigliere]

D. VT- Worse, No Logan Thomas, QB from bowl game hasnt look spectacular. Running game isnt as strong as it was. Defense still worries me.

H. UNC- Better?- Everyone says they are suppose to be better, but I dont see why they think that. They lost their offensive dynamo, Ebron.

I hear ya.

VT: Lost a ton on defense. I know Bud is a great DC and he will have them playing to their highest ability, I think their D will be worse in 2014.

As for their offense, LT is gone and they took in a transfer from TT (Brewer). I have to imagine that their QB can easily be more accurate than LT. They got some good WRs returning and Trey Edmunds might get 1000 yards on the ground. One of the key's to Beamer's success was a good ground game, they may have found their guy.

I expect VT to be about the same difficulty wise.

As for UNC, I think they lost too much. Ebron, Hurst and Renner will be greatly missed from that offense. I expect them to be a little worse in 2014.

 

[Consigliere]

Fun VT tidbit: http://www.gobblercountry.com/2014/...tech-hokies-football-no-surprises-offensively

0-17 on third downs. What are the early odds on a futures bet involving AJ Hughes and the Ray Guy award in December? Wait, don't tell me, it might be too tempting. Things were not.....crisp....at Saturday's Annual Maroon-White spring game. The totals would have been even nastier had the quarterbacks been live. Instead they mocked the defenders with the yellow jerseys, and dulled the game greatly for those of us ready to see everyone uncorked.