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ACC Championship Game Path

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Essex Cane said:
You're right no one beats us by more than two scores. Saw a stat today that we haven't lost by more than a TD in 26 games which is wild but makes sense. We usually lose in stupid/heartbreaking fashion not a blow out. Just not sure if I believe in the staff to not be stubborn, not sure they can galvanize the team. Hope I'm wrong but we need to correct things and handle business.
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That stat means nothing, Mario literally coaches towards that.. But remember the games @TAMU where he is kicking fgs and @Syracuse where he kicks fg instead of going for it on 4th down. Most fans arent saying oh at least we didnt get blown out.. they are saying he is gutless ******* who is playing not to lose big.. He actually coaches for that.. Thats the pro if you look at it that way of playing his style of playing down to inferior opponents.

Playing for close losses U :dbc: :jordan:
 
Right now Miami's biggest hurdle is Miami. The easiest path to the title isn't the ACCCG, it's as an at large:

- Texas losing to A&M/Georgia
- Vandy losing to Tennessee
- Oregon losing to USC, Washington, or Minnesota
- Oklahoma losing to Bama, Missouri, or LSU

And we need ND to win out, because if we can get on a comparison table with ND for a final spot, that is much more in our favor, then trying to predict the proper chaos in the ACC.
 
CanesFan2000 said:
Right now Miami's biggest hurdle is Miami. The easiest path to the title isn't the ACCCG, it's as an at large:

- Texas losing to A&M/Georgia
- Vandy losing to Tennessee
- Oregon losing to USC, Washington, or Minnesota
- Oklahoma losing to Bama, Missouri, or LSU

And we need ND to win out, because if we can get on a comparison table with ND for a final spot, that is much more in our favor, then trying to predict the proper chaos in the ACC.
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Utter nonsense

Why would we want a team in front of us to win out when we are essentially 5 spots away?

Vandy
OU
Texas
ND
Utah/BYU

all those lose and we are in

TrumpyCane thinks 10-2 Miami team also goes over a 10-2 Utah anyway
 
ACC officials will given orders to scr3w Duke from here on.... to avoid the embarrassment of them making it to the ACCCG
 
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CanesFan2000 said:
Right now Miami's biggest hurdle is Miami. The easiest path to the title isn't the ACCCG, it's as an at large:

- Texas losing to A&M/Georgia
- Vandy losing to Tennessee
- Oregon losing to USC, Washington, or Minnesota
- Oklahoma losing to Bama, Missouri, or LSU

And we need ND to win out, because if we can get on a comparison table with ND for a final spot, that is much more in our favor, then trying to predict the proper chaos in the ACC.
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Texas, Vandy and Oklahoma probably lose... Oregon stands the best chance of getting by unscathed
 
Just to rehash since people like to come into threads and not read a word of what was written previously (I do it all the time), nobody is saying we have a better shot at the ACC than an at-large.

In fact, we have a MUCH better chance at an at-large bid.

Right now, Miami to make the playoff is +400.

Miami to win the ACC is 15/1.

So again, way better odds to be an at-large. But there are ACC games to be played, and the results of those games do impact Miami's odds to get to the ACCCG. Hence the thread.

What's super tortuous, and why wouldn't it be, since we're Miami fans, is we need Louisville to lose tomorrow to help us in the ACC race, but we need them to win to help our resume for an at-large bid. Truly exhausting way to live.
 
CanesFan2000 said:
Right now Miami's biggest hurdle is Miami. The easiest path to the title isn't the ACCCG, it's as an at large:

- Texas losing to A&M/Georgia
- Vandy losing to Tennessee
- Oregon losing to USC, Washington, or Minnesota
- Oklahoma losing to Bama, Missouri, or LSU

And we need ND to win out, because if we can get on a comparison table with ND for a final spot, that is much more in our favor, then trying to predict the proper chaos in the ACC.
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ND losing to Pitt moves ND out of the way with 3 losses (will still remain in top 25), and also makes our game against Pitt that much more impactful considering they may be ranked 15ish, which would give us yet another big win to help our case.
 
skyman said:
That stat means nothing, Mario literally coaches towards that.. But remember the games @TAMU where he is kicking fgs and @Syracuse where he kicks fg instead of going for it on 4th down. Most fans arent saying oh at least we didnt get blown out.. they are saying he is gutless ******* who is playing not to lose big.. He actually coaches for that.. Thats the pro if you look at it that way of playing his style of playing down to inferior opponents.

Playing for close losses U :dbc: :jordan:
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You’re not wrong
 
JHallCanes said:
I hear ya but the 2017 team was some smoke and mirrors. I know the ND game but that was a magical night. We weren’t anywhere close to Clemson and it showed when we played them

This team is playing beneath its talent level at the moment where that team was playing above it most of the year imo

Probably what’s most frustrating. We are our worst enemy right now and there’s not a team in the country that could beat us 38-3 like Clemson did that year

Disregard if I totally missed your point
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Once again done in by stubborn coaching.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
Just to rehash since people like to come into threads and not read a word of what was written previously (I do it all the time), nobody is saying we have a better shot at the ACC than an at-large.

In fact, we have a MUCH better chance at an at-large bid.

Right now, Miami to make the playoff is +400.

Miami to win the ACC is 15/1.

So again, way better odds to be an at-large. But there are ACC games to be played, and the results of those games do impact Miami's odds to get to the ACCCG. Hence the thread.

What's super tortuous, and why wouldn't it be, since we're Miami fans, is we need Louisville to lose tomorrow to help us in the ACC race, but we need them to win to help our resume for an at-large bid. Truly exhausting way to live.
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God, I was all excited to watch tonight being a big Clemson fan and completely neglected to think how that would simultaneously hurt our at large prospects. Truly is exhausting.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
I'm having some incredibly depressing deja va writing this but we all know the situation right now, so let's just take it head-on and deal with it.

I saw this from Brad Crawford a few minutes ago, and I hadn't seen it laid out like this, so if I missed it and it's in another thread, we can let this one die but I thought this was a very well laid out way to understand what needs to happen. As we all know, this ain't great, but ****, look at what happened last weekend, literally anything can happen in this conference (except us winning it, apparently)

But, according to Mr. Crawford FOUR OF THESE FIVE THINGS NEED TO HAPPEN IN ORDER FOR US TO MAKE THE ACCCG:

  1. Georgia Tech loses to Boston College OR Pitt
  2. UVA loses to Duke OR Virginia Tech
  3. SMU loses to Louisville AND Cal
  4. Duke loses to UVA, Wake, OR North Carolina
  5. Louisville loses to Clemson OR SMU
If someone wants to fact check this, go nuts. Honestly, the only one that looks really sketchy is #3. But again, we need 4 of these to happen.

Starting with this weekend, here's what we got:

Friday night -- Clemson @ Louisville -- Go Tigers, if Clemson wins, #5 is unlocked for the good guys

Sat 3:30 GT @ Boston College -- Go Eagles, but good luck, they're 16.5 point dogs

3:30 UVA @ Duke -- Someone's going to win this game, I think. So we're either clearing #2 or #4 here. I think we want Duke to win, because if not, then all UVA will have left is VT, and they'll be a big favorite. So, go fighting Mannies.

So, we need 4 of the 5. We know we're getting 1 of them with Duke vs UVA. Would be really nice for Clemson to knock off Louisville to get 2 of the 4 down this weekend with 2 more weekends of potential chaos to go.

Sad ****, but here we are. Go Tiguhs, Eagles, and Dookies.
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It is substantially more complex than that actually. It is so convoluted that you cannot possibly reduce it to a 4 of these 5 things kind of analysis. I wrote a Python script to perform an exhaustive combinatorial scenario analysis of it and my laptop nearly caught fire I think given how loud the cooling fan was running lol. Note that this analysis treated all games the same essentially and does not in any way account for how likely or unlikely any particular game outcome may be. Doing that would have turned an interesting evening side project into a phD thesis.

Also note that this analysis all assumes that we win our remaining three games. That does not mean I believe we will win all our remaining games necessarily, it simply is a logical assumption to meaningfully reduce the scope of the calculations necessary to complete the analysis because if we lose any further games we are effectively out anyway.

  • There are 15 remaining ACC conference games other than the three we are playing in, which means the total # of potential final scenarios is 32,768
  • Miami advances to the ACCCG in 6,366 of those 32,768 total possible scenarios
  • Of the 6,366 scenarios in which Miami makes the ACCCG, only 192 of them involve Miami qualifying outright (i.e. one or zero other teams finish better than 6-2 and every other team finishes 5-3 or worse)
  • There are 31,808 scenarios in which Miami is involved in a tie for one of the two ACCCG slots with at least one other team at 6-2
  • Miami secures one of the two slots via winning the tiebreaker ladder in 6,174 of those 31,808 scenarios (roughly 20%)
  • Of the scenarios in which Miami advances via a tiebreaker, 4,358 of them are a 3+ team tie that is resolved in our favor at the fifth tiebreak procedure of assessing the combined win % of conference opponents (i.e. our conference schedule is tougher than most and that is our biggest asset right now)
  • of the 6,174 advance via tiebreaker scenarios, 960 are via a 2 team tie in which we win at the first tiebreak procedure of having a head to head win and 856 are via a 2 team tie in which we win at the second tiebreak procedure of having a higher win % vs all common opponents
 
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Wake_Cane said:
It is substantially more complex than that actually. It is so convoluted that you cannot possibly reduce it to a 4 of these 5 things kind of analysis. I wrote a Python script to perform an exhaustive combinatorial scenario analysis of it and my laptop nearly caught fire I think given how loud the cooling fan was running lol. Note that this analysis treated all games the same essentially and does not in any way account for how likely or unlikely any particular game outcome may be. Doing that would have turned an interesting evening side project into a phD thesis.

Also note that this analysis all assumes that we win our remaining three games. That does not mean I believe we will win all our remaining games necessarily, it simply is a logical assumption to meaningfully reduce the scope of the calculations necessary to complete the analysis because if we lose any further games we are effectively out anyway.

  • There are 15 remaining ACC conference games other than the three we are playing in, which means the total # of potential final scenarios is 32,768
  • Miami advances to the ACCCG in 6,366 of those 32,768 total possible scenarios
  • Of the 6,366 scenarios in which Miami makes the ACCCG, only 192 of them involve Miami qualifying outright (i.e. one or zero other teams finish better than 6-2 and every other team finishes 5-3 or worse)
  • There are 31,808 scenarios in which Miami is involved in a tie for one of the two ACCCG slots with at least one other team at 6-2
  • Miami secures one of the two slots via winning the tiebreaker ladder in 6,174 of those 31,808 scenarios (roughly 20%)
  • Of the scenarios in which Miami advances via a tiebreaker, 4,358 of them are a 3+ team tie that is resolved in our favor at the fifth tiebreak procedure of assessing the combined win % of conference opponents (i.e. our conference schedule is tougher than most and that is our biggest asset right now)
  • of the 6,174 advance via tiebreaker scenarios, 960 are via a 2 team tie in which we win at the first tiebreak procedure of having a head to head win and 856 are via a 2 team tie in which we win at the second tiebreak procedure of having a higher win % vs all common opponents
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We need to Louisville to drop another one to even think about an at large bid. They would have wins over us, Pitt, JMU, Clemson and SMU if they finish 10-2. IF it's the last week of the season and we both aren't in the ACC title game and it's between us and them for an at large bid I definitely can see them getting in over us.
 
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