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ACC Championship Game Path

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OrangeBowlMagic said:
But, according to Mr. Crawford FOUR OF THESE FIVE THINGS NEED TO HAPPEN IN ORDER FOR US TO MAKE THE ACCCG:

  1. Georgia Tech loses to Boston College OR Pitt
  2. UVA loses to Duke OR Virginia Tech
  3. SMU loses to Louisville AND Cal
  4. Duke loses to UVA, Wake, OR North Carolina
  5. Louisville loses to Clemson OR SMU
If someone wants to fact check this, go nuts. Honestly, the only one that looks really sketchy is #3. But again, we need 4 of these to happen.

Starting with this weekend, here's what we got:

Friday night -- Clemson @ Louisville -- Go Tigers, if Clemson wins, #5 is unlocked for the good guys

Sat 3:30 GT @ Boston College -- Go Eagles, but good luck, they're 16.5 point dogs

3:30 UVA @ Duke -- Someone's going to win this game, I think. So we're either clearing #2 or #4 here. I think we want Duke to win, because if not, then all UVA will have left is VT, and they'll be a big favorite. So, go fighting Mannies.

So, we need 4 of the 5. We know we're getting 1 of them with Duke vs UVA. Would be really nice for Clemson to knock off Louisville to get 2 of the 4 down this weekend with 2 more weekends of potential chaos to go.

Sad ****, but here we are. Go Tiguhs, Eagles, and Dookies.
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#5 If Louisville beats Clemson and loses to SMU; then #3 isn’t happening.

#5 should state Louisville loses to Clemson and beats SMU.

Even if we get mixed up in a multi team tiebreaker we are likely to be on the outside looking in.

Hypothetical:

#1: GT can lose to Pittsburgh and still be apart of the 2 loss team tiebreaker. #2 & #4: UVA can lose to Duke, Duke can lose to UNC and they would also be apart of the 2 loss team tiebreaker.

Two scenarios following this: 1A: If Louisville beats Clemson and SMU, then we are going to be in a multi team tiebreaker against Duke, UVA, GT, and Louisville. Our record against this bunch is 0-1 which means bye bye for us.


1B: If SMU wins out, they are going to be a one loss team automatically in with us in a multi team tiebreaker breaker with Duke, UVA, and GT.

Now, it would matter if UVA loses to Duke or VT; because we play VT and not Duke. Anyways, let’s assume they lose to Duke and Duke loses to UNC like we started with.

Common opponents NC State. Only us and Duke beat NC State. So i believe that eliminates GT and UVA. Next, would be #3 below. Only one common opponent so we can’t differentiate based upon finish.

On to #4, which we won’t know until the last game of the year or second to last week. However, right now, Duke would beat us in that fourth tiebreaker. According to sportingnews, our combined conference opponents are 22-26 and Duke’s are 24-24.

Ordered tiebreakers:

1. Head-to-head competition between teams.

2. Winning percentage vs. common opponents.

3. Win-percentage vs. common opponents based upon finish (overall conference winning percentage, with ties broken).

4. Combined winning percentage of conference opponents.

5. The tied team with the higher ranking by the Team Rating Score metric provided by SportSource Analytics following the conclusion of regular season games.

6. The representative shall be chosen by a draw as administered by the Commissioner or Commissioner's designee.
 
I mean, yeah I’d like it to happen, but don’t really don’t care at this point. Between player attrition and coaching, I don’t think we have what it takes to make much noise if we get to the post season even if this scenario played out - let alone winning out ourselves.
 
Lagway>Beck said:
I guess I’ll do a thread on our path to the playoff too since we’re all sniffing glue
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ST26 said:
The problem is that I just don't see a world where Pitt beats both GT and ND, but I hope I'm wrong. SMU losing twice is another difficult one
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SMU having to fly to Cal after Thanksgiving

Cals biggest strength is also SMU’s biggest weakness, which is their pass defense

TrumpyCane watches most of the Cal and Louisville game and Cal isn’t too bad
 
TrumpyCane said:
SMU having to fly to Cal after Thanksgiving

Cals biggest strength is also SMU’s biggest weakness, which is their pass defense

TrumpyCane watches most of the Cal and Louisville game and Cal isn’t too bad
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The literal only result from the entire list of games that I posted that would even moderately surprise me would be BC over GT. That’d be shocking. Any of these other games, no matter who wins I wouldn’t be 1% surprised. None of these teams are good enough to have auto-wins.
 
TrumpyCane said:
SMU having to fly to Cal after Thanksgiving

Cals biggest strength is also SMU’s biggest weakness, which is their pass defense

TrumpyCane watches most of the Cal and Louisville game and Cal isn’t too bad
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That game has SMU loss written all over it. Cal's win at L'ville was impressive considering.
 
cookies said:
#5 If Louisville beats Clemson and loses to SMU; then #3 isn’t happening.

#5 should state Louisville loses to Clemson and beats SMU.

Even if we get mixed up in a multi team tiebreaker we are likely to be on the outside looking in.

Hypothetical:

#1: GT can lose to Pittsburgh and still be apart of the 2 loss team tiebreaker. #2 & #4: UVA can lose to Duke, Duke can lose to UNC and they would also be apart of the 2 loss team tiebreaker.

Two scenarios following this: 1A: If Louisville beats Clemson and SMU, then we are going to be in a multi team tiebreaker against Duke, UVA, GT, and Louisville. Our record against this bunch is 0-1 which means bye bye for us.


1B: If SMU wins out, they are going to be a one loss team automatically in with us in a multi team tiebreaker breaker with Duke, UVA, and GT.

Now, it would matter if UVA loses to Duke or VT; because we play VT and not Duke. Anyways, let’s assume they lose to Duke and Duke loses to UNC like we started with.

Common opponents NC State. Only us and Duke beat NC State. So i believe that eliminates GT and UVA. Next, would be #3 below. Only one common opponent so we can’t differentiate based upon finish.

On to #4, which we won’t know until the last game of the year or second to last week. However, right now, Duke would beat us in that fourth tiebreaker. According to sportingnews, our combined conference opponents are 22-26 and Duke’s are 24-24.

Ordered tiebreakers:

1. Head-to-head competition between teams.

2. Winning percentage vs. common opponents.

3. Win-percentage vs. common opponents based upon finish (overall conference winning percentage, with ties broken).

4. Combined winning percentage of conference opponents.

5. The tied team with the higher ranking by the Team Rating Score metric provided by SportSource Analytics following the conclusion of regular season games.

6. The representative shall be chosen by a draw as administered by the Commissioner or Commissioner's designee.
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The ACC tiebreaker does not apply a straight head-to-head if not all tied teams played each other; instead, it proceeds to compare the teams' records against common opponents and then other criteria. The process starts by examining the win percentage in games between the tied teams, but if they don't all play each other, the next steps are to compare records against common opponents or consider other metrics.

Our only shot is to be involved in a multi-team tie-breaker, and, for GT to lose.
 
TheOriginalCane said:
Because you aren't smart. People have explained it multiple times.
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Haha right. Just cause your dumbass explains it doesn’t make it correct lol. Cause it’s not. Yeah the committee who just spent the entire time talking about how *** the ACC is is gunna reward us after removing the one positive thing they have said about the ACC - that we beat ND lol.

Do you think if us and ND finish by winning out that we will rank below ND? If you think us at 10-2 would rank above ND at 10-2, then there is no logic at all to saying we want ND to lose when the committee valued quality wins above all else.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
I'm having some incredibly depressing deja va writing this but we all know the situation right now, so let's just take it head-on and deal with it.

I saw this from Brad Crawford a few minutes ago, and I hadn't seen it laid out like this, so if I missed it and it's in another thread, we can let this one die but I thought this was a very well laid out way to understand what needs to happen. As we all know, this ain't great, but ****, look at what happened last weekend, literally anything can happen in this conference (except us winning it, apparently)

But, according to Mr. Crawford FOUR OF THESE FIVE THINGS NEED TO HAPPEN IN ORDER FOR US TO MAKE THE ACCCG:

  1. Georgia Tech loses to Boston College OR Pitt
  2. UVA loses to Duke OR Virginia Tech
  3. SMU loses to Louisville AND Cal
  4. Duke loses to UVA, Wake, OR North Carolina
  5. Louisville loses to Clemson OR SMU
If someone wants to fact check this, go nuts. Honestly, the only one that looks really sketchy is #3. But again, we need 4 of these to happen.

Starting with this weekend, here's what we got:

Friday night -- Clemson @ Louisville -- Go Tigers, if Clemson wins, #5 is unlocked for the good guys

Sat 3:30 GT @ Boston College -- Go Eagles, but good luck, they're 16.5 point dogs

3:30 UVA @ Duke -- Someone's going to win this game, I think. So we're either clearing #2 or #4 here. I think we want Duke to win, because if not, then all UVA will have left is VT, and they'll be a big favorite. So, go fighting Mannies.

So, we need 4 of the 5. We know we're getting 1 of them with Duke vs UVA. Would be really nice for Clemson to knock off Louisville to get 2 of the 4 down this weekend with 2 more weekends of potential chaos to go.

Sad ****, but here we are. Go Tiguhs, Eagles, and Dookies.
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The most unlikely seems like #3.. if the other 4 do happen, does that put us in the acccg against smu? Did Crawford say who we might play if all 5 happened? I don't figure it happening but another game against smu would be nice.
 
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MovingZen said:
The most unlikely seems like #3.. if the other 4 do happen, does that put us in the acccg against smu? Did Crawford say who we might play if all 5 happened? I don't figure it happening but another game against smu would be nice.
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Yeah. If 4 of those happen but SMU wins out it’s Miami vs SMU, I believe.

SMU only has 1 conference loss.
 
Six "IN" (reasonable) scenarios below.

Careful who you root for.
In one case, I selected Cal to beat SMU. We were out.
When I switched SMU to beat Cal, we were in. In because it bettered our opponent percentage.
Actually, we'll have to root for SMU, if Cal beats Stanford.

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